Meta Report #8 and some meta analysis

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Meta Report #8 and some meta analysis

There is a new Metareport available. The main difference in popularity is that Brouver and Calveit have exchanged places, but the difference is a lot closer than before.
The rest has only shifted minimaly.

Calveit: 17.8%
Brouver: 15.1%
Crach an Craite: 13.7%
Henselt: 9.5%
Dagon: 9.4%
Eithne: 5.7%
Arachnas Queen: 5.3%


For fun I created some statistics out of the Meta report, that I'd like to share, concerning the popularity of some counter cards at the highest available tier:
#8All FactionsMonsterNilfgaardNorthern RealmsSc'ioatelSkellige
Silver Spies80,3%64,6%95,3%85,6%94,2%53,5%
Weather Mage34,8%7,5%16,7%53,7%76,3%12,8%
Silver Lock8,2%23,3%0,5%14,7%3,7%2,2%
Runestone28,6%2%80,2%2,5%5%47,6%
Scorch17,1%3,8%8,3%57,9%20,4%0%
Mandrake52%75,6%84,2%6,8%28,7%64,3%
First Light2,1%1,6%0,1%3,7%3,7%1,8%
Weather Clearing Unit2,5%0,8%0,6%7,7%3,9%0,2%
Alzur's Thunder6%0,4%0%12%16,4%0%
Shackles1,2%2,2%0,4%4%0%0%
Villen7,9%0%6,9%24,2%9,6%0%
Geralt: Igni6,2%4,1%2,3%4,4%3,9%18,7%
Schirru15,2%0%0%0%62,8%0%
And here is the one from the last Meta report:
#7All FactionsMonsterNilfgaardNorthern RealmsSc'ioatelSkellige
Silver Spies84,5%60,5%95,2%85,4%96,2%73,6%
Weather Mage40,2%18,5%24,2%51,8%64,6%22,9%
Silver Lock5,6%15,1%0,9%13,4%2,8%2,2%
Runestone20,8%2,1%69,1%4%5,2%31,2%
Scorch15%3,2%12,5%46%16,3%0,2%
Mandrake28,7%38,4%68%1,7%12,7%30,3%
First Light1,6%2,1%0%2,3%2,5%0,6%
Weather Clearing Unit2,3%1,8%1,4%4,5%3,1%0,2%
Alzur's Thunder4,8%0,2%0%4%12,9%0%
Shackles0,1%0,1%0,3%0%0%0%
Villen8,3%0%12%32,4%3,8%0%
Geralt: Igni9,7%8%4,6%7,1%6,4%25%
Schirru18,7%0%0%0%57,5%0%

Lets compare the too. Most obvious is that Mandrakes popularity nearly doubled and now is included in every second deck.
This is a direct consequence of Imlerith Sabbath, who is now included in 28% of all MO decks. Alzur's Thunder has a slighty increased inclusion ratio, too. The same for both Weather Mages with Thunder: Dethmold and Ida, the latter ones popularity increased quite a lot. Also, MO run a lot more Vaedermaker instead of Abaaya, probably for the reason of Thunder, too. And Keira, who also has Thunder is slightly more popular overall, too.
Shackles also became a lot more used, but here the statistics might give the wrong impression, as basically only Hillock runs shackles for unlocking and Cursed NR with Adda, who can tutor them.

Imlerith:Sabbath also has effects on the Scorch effects, Villen and Gigni both decreased a bit, while Scorch and Schirru both increased quite a bit.
Which is further remarkable, is that Schirru while only being available at one factions has nearly the same popularity as Scorch for all factions.
The next card that is affected is Seltkirk, whose popularity increased from 35% to 54.7%.

The biggest other change is that Runestone become a lot more popular.


Moreover at the current state of the Meta, only 40% of all players run at least one direct weather clear. (This does not include boons or Redanian Knights and co).

Ciri:Nova's popularity decreased from 15.1% to 12%, which isn't such a bad place in my opinion.


From the stats we can also compare different faction specific versions of generic concepts.
We can clearly see that MO and SK spies are less popular than the ones of the other factions, which is likely due to the drawbacks those two have.
For Weather Mages, NR and STquite dominate all the other ones, which makes sense as these are the two having Alzur's Thunder included. For this reason 28% of all MO decks run Vaedermaker and only 7.5% Abaya.

Weather-Clearing units are quite unpopular currently. But Kaedweni Sergeant and Vrihedd Brigarde seem to be the most popular ones due to their usefull extra effects.

Runestones are mainly used in SK and NG, the latter mostly due to Alchemy.

Another idea we can get from the statistic is, how many generic (neutral or there exists and equivalent in all factions) silver cards are included in decks.
Over all decks there are 2,2 of these generic silvers per deck, which means players can only include 4 at max cards for their own startegy.
For MO it's 1.8 generic cards, NG 2.9, NR 2.2, ST 2.3, SK 1.8.
 
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So would the mandrake rise, plus Imlerith obviously being popular, and monster decks not rising overall, indicate Mandrake's enough to keep him down? Or do you think there's going to be a surge?

Presumably Morvudd is going into Monsters to unlock Imlerith as well, though it seems nobody's going out of their way to lock him in the first place. Or is something else causing the rise?
 
Most interestingly the winrates of both Hillock and Eredin, who mainly run Imlerith, has dropped from 45% to 40%. Only their popularity increased. So, currently Mandrake +Alzurs is more than enough to keep it down.

Morvudd was the most viable lock before, so it isn't that surprising that he is even more popular. And with his ability he is additionally probably the best lock against Imlerith.
And moreover if that many MO players run Morvudd, he is needed even more to unlock Imlerith.
 
Almost everybody I've played against this week used Mandrake. The card is too good. CDPR has the tendency to nerf cards that people use a lot so I think we might see a slight tweak to it. They'll probably also change Brouver to only play loyal units in my opinion. Thank you for this information. :)
 
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It's quite strange how Imlerith: Sabbath effectively made Eredin more popular (his popularity has effectively doubled from 1.2% to 2.4%), but Weather mages and clearing units have reduced. I'd say it's a direct result of the card itself, and why everyone runs Mandrake, which forces the silver mage out in some of the decks. Plus, 2.4% is still not so much.
 
ser2440;n10644731 said:
It's quite strange how Imlerith: Sabbath effectively made Eredin more popular (his popularity has effectively doubled from 1.2% to 2.4%)
Outrageous, popularity of Eredin should be back at 0.1%. Let's nerf him. :facepalm:
 
Maerd;n10644961 said:
Outrageous, popularity of Eredin should be back at 0.1%. Let's nerf him. :facepalm:

Those uppity Eredin players need to be put in their place.

Seriously, I hope WH returns. It's such a lore-critical force, it kind of hurts how limp they are in GWENT.
 
I'm new to Gwent, but I did look at this faction report last month, and my impression is that faction popularity is somewhat more evenly-distributed now. Am I right about that? If so, that would be a welcome trend.
 
FG15-ISH7EG;n10642581 said:
only 40% of all players run at least one direct weather clear. (

Interesting. I'm a newb, and I see weather all the time at the lower ranks, so I now include clear skies in my decks. Is weather less popular with higher-ranked players?
 
RazTheGnome;n10645471 said:
Is weather less popular with higher-ranked players?
In higher ranks it just doesn't matter much. Cards like weather clear just has no place in highly optimized decks. Therefore it's more efficient just ignore and endure weather damage than including Clear Skies in the deck. Runestones though can highroll weather clearing mage with very high probability and at the moment relying on RNG to clear weather makes decks stronger than running the Clear Skies.
 
RazTheGnome;n10645471 said:
Interesting. I'm a newb, and I see weather all the time at the lower ranks, so I now include clear skies in my decks. Is weather less popular with higher-ranked players?

As little as weather is used, yes. Some people such as myself run one clear at most because hard clear just doesn't see value in most games. I run one mage mostly, if things get bad I row stack, decoy or try to rng another. Just not seeing enough weather for it to be worth running more imo.
 
Jeydra;n10618412 said:
I predict that in the next meta update, averaged across all leaders and controlling for a leader's popularity (i.e., if a leader cannot easily slot Mandrake, its popularity decreases), Mandrake's usage will be at least 40%, maybe 50% or even higher.

Also just for fun - according to this meta report, Skellige's popularity as a whole was 17.6%. I predict this will fall in the next meta report, and this will happen even though two of the six winningest leaders are Skellige (Crach & Harald).

Bull's eye on both predictions :) About Mandrake being "too good" - absolutely not, there are decks against which it's bad and there are other cards capable of dealing with individual big units (e.g. Artefact Compression which is better vs. cards like Djenge, and Scorch of course). The reason everyone's using Mandrake right now is because of Imlerith: Sabbath.

Sabbath is unhealthy for the game. It may not be very good on average, but the fact that it exists warps the metagame around it. I wish CDPR does something about it.
 
RazTheGnome;n10645471 said:
Interesting. I'm a newb, and I see weather all the time at the lower ranks, so I now include clear skies in my decks. Is weather less popular with higher-ranked players?
Untutored bronze weather isn't worth in most cases. It needs 6 rounds to be worth it and if used too early the enemy will just rowstack on a different row. Moreover it is low tempo.
It is a bit different with decks that can tutor it or have synergies with it, but the general state of those decks is pretty bad at the moment so they aren't that competetive.
The only thing that can be worth it is gold weather and Birna is included in a lot of Skellige decks (Tuirsearch, Axeman). The other gold weathers are just too luck dependant. If the enemy clears them you have wasted a gold, and even in the other case, if the enemy only uses 2 rows, you need 5 turns at least.

And I think one of the biggest reasons is the other decks that are currently run. ST has already enough weather clear and can even get one out of elven scout. Henselt machines has Ronvid as a Frost blocker, can heal their engines and normally rowstacks. Consume doesn't care about slow tempo weather at all. It is the same against Tuirseearch, where weather is too low tempo in the first round too, to win. Deathwish uses Archespores which give them an extra turn where you don't know which row to weather and Deathwish even profits a bit from their units being removed.
The only top deck that has big problems with weather is Alchemy, as long as you don't run a bronze weather clear which they can steal.

Due to all of these reasons weather isn't really usefull currently.

Jeydra;n10645531 said:
Bull's eye on both predictions
I mainly made the whole statistic because this predicition inspired me.
 
Those uppity Eredin players need to be put in their place.

Seriously, I hope WH returns. It's such a lore-critical force, it kind of hurts how limp they are in GWENT.

I agree. Back in the Closed Beta it was OP though :p Let's not take it that back, but bring it back nonetheless

My WH deck is moderately successful, as much as a Reveal deck. Which means it's Tier 2 - 3 but you can do some work with it in casual :)
 
RazTheGnome;n10645451 said:
I'm new to Gwent, but I did look at this faction report last month, and my impression is that faction popularity is somewhat more evenly-distributed now. Am I right about that? If so, that would be a welcome trend.

Last month the factions were inside a 16% bracket (ie, that's the gap between most and least popular), this month it's down to 7%, so yes, there's a narrowing there. However, the leader popularity is skewed even harder so... giveth with one hand, slappeth with the other.
 
Jeydra;n10645531 said:
Bull's eye on both predictions :) About Mandrake being "too good" - absolutely not, there are decks against which it's bad and there are other cards capable of dealing with individual big units (e.g. Artefact Compression which is better vs. cards like Djenge, and Scorch of course). The reason everyone's using Mandrake right now is because of Imlerith: Sabbath.

Sabbath is unhealthy for the game. It may not be very good on average, but the fact that it exists warps the metagame around it. I wish CDPR does something about it.

I'll give you Mandrake, as that's clearly correct, but I don't think you should be crowing too loud about a whopping .3% change in Skellige's popularity.

The most important results; which leaders and decks are most dominant/popular, hasn't been affected in the least, save Alchemy claiming top spot for popularity. If anything, Imlerith seems to have increased Monster decks' overall popularity without twisting the metagame in the slightest beyond attracting mandrake hate. In other words, by the figures he's having a positive, not negative effect.
 
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FG15-ISH7EG;n10642581 said:
Lets compare the too. Most obvious is that Mandrakes popularity nearly doubled and now is included in every second deck.
This is a direct consequence of Imlerith Sabbath, who is now included in 28% of all MO decks. Alzur's Thunder has a slighty increased inclusion ratio, too. The same for both Weather Mages with Thunder: Dethmold and Ida, the latter ones popularity increased quite a lot. Also, MO run a lot more Vaedermaker instead of Abaaya, probably for the reason of Thunder, too. And Keira, who also has Thunder is slightly more popular overall, too.
Shackles also became a lot more used, but here the statistics might give the wrong impression, as basically only Hillock runs shackles for unlocking and Cursed NR with Adda, who can tutor them.

Shackles are one of the worst cards in the game and need a massive buff to be remotely playable.

The most played deck is Alchemy nilf and they all run Mandrake to buff their own guy not because they are worried about I: Sab. People are also running running mandrake to brick cahir moreso than worried about I: Sabbath. Monsters overall are pretty garbage (probably the worst faction) and I: Sabb is mediocre in this meta.

Seltkirk popularity is a good indicator of a response to I: Sabbath but it is because they have so few solutions/this is one of the only decks I: Sab is even good against. Seltkirk is also never useless in any matchup so there is no targeted hate/drawback of running him.
 
iamthedave;n10643081 said:
So would the mandrake rise, plus Imlerith obviously being popular, and monster decks not rising overall, indicate Mandrake's enough to keep him down?

It's your best and easiest shot, yes. There are ways around it, but without the right timing, mandrake is very often game over for Sabbath.
 
liezldiezldee;n10652191 said:
Shackles are one of the worst cards in the game and need a massive buff to be remotely playable.

The most played deck is Alchemy nilf and they all run Mandrake to buff their own guy not because they are worried about I: Sab. People are also running running mandrake to brick cahir moreso than worried about I: Sabbath. Monsters overall are pretty garbage (probably the worst faction) and I: Sabb is mediocre in this meta.

Seltkirk popularity is a good indicator of a response to I: Sabbath but it is because they have so few solutions/this is one of the only decks I: Sab is even good against. Seltkirk is also never useless in any matchup so there is no targeted hate/drawback of running him.

It's surprising the things Seltkirk can kill when you have a proper look at it.
 
I think what is interesting to note about this meta is that, despite their relative lack of popularity (something that has always been going on), 2 of the most underwhelming decks of the last patch can possibly be considered Tier 1 now. That is, NG Handbuff and Harald Axemen. I dug into the meta report a little more. Both have a winrate greater than 50%, so greater than, say, Deathwish, which is also a Tier 1 deck
 
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