RNG? Or something more going on?

[Stormbuster]

RNG? Or something more going on?

1. Casual mode. Sk deck: Hjaalmar+Kamby
2. Last 10 games. 6 x rank 19, 2 x rank 18, 1 x rank 17, 1 x rank 15.
3. 5 times in 10 games (FIVE, let me repeat, FIVE) I got in hand only one gold, Kamby or Hjaalmar. tried with Sarah to get Avallac'h or Ermion. Nope, got the other one. K instead of H or H instead of K. Used 3 times Decoy on Sarah. Guess what. SURPRISE. If K was replaced with H, now H was replaced back with K. And the other way round.
4. To be clear...all these golds were in my last 6-9 cards. At that point most of my opponents had already been dealt with 3-4 golds and all their silvers.
5. Other 2 games had avallac'h and ermion and sarah hidden in last 4 cards....
5. Won 6 of them 10. I really wonder how they are @ master level ..some of them are playing that bad......

Questions:
a) most of the players are now ranked 18+???????????????
b) if i have to draw a conclusion, are the master ranks granted to those whom are having some ways to mock with the other player RNG? Or is something else?

Devs? You reading? You can look at my last games. Let me have an answer.....

Why most of my games are looking like this every day?

 

[Restlessdingo32]

Karma for playing a Kambi deck? All joking aside, be glad it didn't happen in ranked. 4 game streaks of getting the short coinflip stick and ending R3 with 2-3 golds in hand are a pleasent reminder there is no RNG in Gwent.

In terms of your rank question, if memory serves 4k put you in the top like... 10-12k, or something similar. So yes, there are a lot of R18-19 players.

 

[4RM3D]

TL;DR: RNG strikes again

 

[Zjiin]

Tinfoil Hat time.

The fucked around with the Mulligan system and rather than tell people when it was questioned they denied anything for months then finally admited it worked differently to every other mulligan ever. Its not entirely unlikely they've messed around with other systems and algorithms without telling anyone anything.

 

[Exoclyps]

Don't judge people by their ranks in Casual. I for one tend to try out other decks in causal, so my performance would obviously be lower than in ranked.
And you where just unlucky, that's all. There is no hidden stuffs.

 

[nunqmuo]

A sacrifice of 60 kegs should please the RNJesus.

P.S. Your karma will never be the same again for playing Kambi deck. Deal with it.:wisegirl:

 

[Rayquorz]

5 times in 10 games (FIVE, let me repeat, FIVE) I got in hand only one gold, Kamby or Hjaalmar. tried with Sarah to get Avallac'h or Ermion. Nope, got the other one. K instead of H or H instead of K. Used 3 times Decoy on Sarah. Guess what. SURPRISE. If K was replaced with H, now H was replaced back with K. And the other way round.

I did not do the exact math, but I'd guess the probability of this happening is somewhere around (the order of magnitude of) 1%. It's improbable, but not impossible. If anything, this proves RNG is working as intended. RNG is a bell curve and you just proved the bell curve has (at least on one end) a proper tail.

Won 6 of them 10. I really wonder how they are @ master level ..some of them are playing that bad......

Well, it seems RNGesus stepped on your ego really hard, making you feel the need to mention this.

 

[Stormbuster]

I did not do the exact math, but I'd guess the probability of this happening is somewhere around (the order of magnitude of) 1%. It's improbable, but not impossible. If anything, this proves RNG is working as intended. RNG is a bell curve and you just proved the bell curve has (at least on one end) a proper tail.

The probability is way less then tossing a coin 8 times and getting 8 tails in a row. Used Sarah 8 times. Every time I had only 33.33% probability to get K instead of H or the other way round. That means a probability of (1/3) ^ 8 = 0.0158% Like 100 times less! Now combine that I have such an event only in connection with rank 19. Hmm, coincidence.

But I agree with you. RNG works as intended.

Well, it seems RNGesus stepped on your ego really hard, making you feel the need to mention this.

Or maybe I just noted this in order not to have back "intelligent" comments without any connection with the situation I've presented... "like don't blame RNG for your losses"....I have an average 75-80% WR in casual..

 

[Rayquorz]

Or maybe I just noted this in order not to have back "intelligent" comments without any connection with the situation I've presented... "like don't blame RNG for your losses"....I have an average 75-80% WR in casual..

I see. Matchmaking is casual is dramatic though, you should not be surprised if people easily disregard your casual win rate.

 

[Lunchi]

Hearthstone modifies the shit out of their RNG to keep the games close. It's their way of balancing. I hope gwent doesn't go down that dark path.

 

[a_page06]

[No message]

 

[Lunchi]

all 5 games today against another foltest my summoning circle was dead last... all 5 games that's with 10 reshuffled cards as well

 

[Stormbuster]

I see. Matchmaking is casual is dramatic though, you should not be surprised if people easily disregard your casual win rate.

Is it that hard to read my post? The subject is about a particular low probability event repeated 5 times in 10 games! And is not about my WR in casual,which is ok, thank you, but about gameplay RNG which happens to COINCIDE with the opponents being randomly (I would have used some "" but I fear that some neurons will shake) selected from a single percentile of the players mass! Need translation for this as well???

 

[frbfree]

Is it that hard to read my post? The subject is about a particular low probability event repeated 5 times in 10 games! And is not about my WR in casual,which is ok, thank you, but about gameplay RNG which happens to COINCIDE with the opponents being randomly (I would have used some "" but I fear that some neurons will shake) selected from a single percentile of the players mass! Need translation for this as well???

Players currently ranked 17-19 make up far more than 1 percent of the Gwent population. Exaggeration won't help your point.

Moreover, there's no way to confirm what you are saying, so I can only take what you say at face value. Assuming that the rest of your post is not also exaggeration, then I would venture that you're playing Crach? Obviously if you were playing the Discard Archetype, you wouldn't be having this problem, as your deck would probably thin low enough to get to your other golds. Also, I'm not entirely sure why you are complaining about a 60% win rate? With only two golds in the deck, I would be pleased about that.

I can only conclude that yes, there is something else going on. But I don't think it has to do with Gwent, or RNG.

 

[Mau_91]

ive wondered a lot of times is truly rng is involved, based on my evidence i would say no

 

[Shadow-Stalker]

Draws seem to be considerably worse.

Both I and a friend believe something has changed with the draw system. Everyone already knows that it is rigged to a point, artificial percentage bonus on drawing bronze/silvers/golds. The mulligan system (the bug aside)

However, I've recently noticed the draws being tenfold worse; so I decided play my 38 card NR deck, Which is about the only fun I have in the game now.
But recently, I've noticed I would draw an extremely bad hand with numerous multiples, blacklist cavalry, and then draw two cavalry in round 2 with 28 cards left in my deck.
I've noticed that I may black list temerian infantry, only to have three of them in my hand in round three, with 25 cards in my deck.
I've started the game with all 4 gold cards in my starting hand, one of those being royal decree, multiple games in a row. (I don't run royal decree anymore because of this)
If I draw John Natalis I have a 90% chance of also drawing one tactic card and an 80% chance or drawing both tactic cards in my deck also.
if I draw Vesemir: mentor, I have a 90% chance or also drawing the only alchemy card I have in my deck.
Or it's the smaller, even more statistically improbable events, like Stennis pulling the ONLY aratuza adept in your 17 card deck after you drew two of them in round one along with two frost.

Among many more.

These are statistical rarities. They should be more of an anomaly the higher the amount of cards in your deck. That is how statistics work at least.

But clearly they are not, hence the creation of this post. This happens every single game,.

Something has been messed up. And I sure hope we are not the only ones who have noticed.

 

[Philologus]

Both I and a friend believe something has changed with the draw system. Everyone already knows that it is rigged to a point, artificial percentage bonus on drawing bronze/silvers/golds. The mulligan system (the bug aside)

However, I've recently noticed the draws being tenfold worse; so I decided play my 38 card NR deck, Which is about the only fun I have in the game now.
But recently, I've noticed I would draw an extremely bad hand with numerous multiples, blacklist cavalry, and then draw two cavalry in round 2 with 28 cards left in my deck.
I've noticed that I may black list temerian infantry, only to have three of them in my hand in round three, with 25 cards in my deck.
I've started the game with all 4 gold cards in my starting hand, one of those being royal decree, multiple games in a row. (I don't run royal decree anymore because of this)
If I draw John Natalis I have a 90% chance of also drawing one tactic card and an 80% chance or drawing both tactic cards in my deck also.
if I draw Vesemir: mentor, I have a 90% chance or also drawing the only alchemy card I have in my deck.
Or it's the smaller, even more statistically improbable events, like Stennis pulling the ONLY aratuza adept in your 17 card deck after you drew two of them in round one along with two frost.

Among many more.

These are statistical rarities. They should be more of an anomaly the higher the amount of cards in your deck. That is how statistics work at least.

But clearly they are not, hence the creation of this post. This happens every single game,.

Something has been messed up. And I sure hope we are not the only ones who have noticed.

You know what? I am glad someone else brought this up, because these statistically improbably events (with draw/mulligan) seem to happen too frequently. For me, it presents as such:

1) I look at my initial draw for R1. I mulligan away whatever cards I do not want. Most of the time, it's one of a card-type, of which I initially draw a multiple.

2) The two cards I draw at the beginning of R2 are the cards I discarded in R1. Now.. I can't tell you how many times this has happened, but it has been so often as to catch my eye.

3) In R3, I'll draw one of the cards I discarded in R1 and R2.

Does this happen all-the-time? No.

By the way, what do you mean by everyone knows "it's rigged"?

 

[4RM3D]

Shadow-Stalker

Spoiler: thread merged

 

[Khreygond]

2) The two cards I draw at the beginning of R2 are the cards I discarded in R1. Now.. I can't tell you how many times this has happened, but it has been so often as to catch my eye.

The mulligan system (the bug aside)

It's not a bug. And yes it happens often, it's statistics. Because the card(s) that you mulligan have their copies blacklisted (meaning that when you choose to swap something, the game automatically prevents you from drawing any other copies of what you swapped, even if that's the next card you are bound to draw. So you might mulligan away something and a copy of it might end up being the next card you ought to draw. You'll draw something else, but when the round is over, you will draw that) and because when you mulligan the first 2, you draw new ones from the deck, the chance that you will draw them on the next round is massive

As explained here. There's also a thread but I can't find it. I don't know about the 40 card deck though, I feel it is still more probable to draw the card you send back but less so than 25 card decks.

*EDIT* Have a gwentDB thread that analyzes this https://www.gwentdb.com/articles/132-gwent-concepts-the-mulligan-bug

 

[Shadow-Stalker]

3) In R3, I'll draw one of the cards I discarded in R1 and R2.

By the way, what do you mean by everyone knows "it's rigged"?

This is how it was rigged. The cards you mulligan in round 1 each have a high percentage of going into your next 1-3 card slots.

Bronze cards have an artifical draw rate, as do silvers as do golds. If you run 25 cards in your deck you don't actually have a 4% chance to draw each card. It's more like 20% per bronze and unit less for silver and golds.