Everyone (well at least 95% of what I find on internet) is painting like the company is grasping for last breath of air because of supposed horrific sales numbers.
But if this company was game like Remedy Entertainment, these numbers of sales in just Q1 (if they were around 1 million units) would still be earth shattering.
Their most recent game Control roughly 2 years (being released in August 2019) had sold 2 million units.
In their initial release year they managed to accumulate €17.7M in sales where reports said they only gained roughly 45% only from sales meaning an estimated €39,33M euro (17.7 / 0.45) worth of money changed hands with consumers. Assuming game went into sale once before winter or during winter sales, lets say average sale price for product was in 45€. With this formula we can assume the first year the game sold roughly ~900 000 copies.
Only much later the game has gotten at least a little bit more recognition in the media and the sales have went up in the following 2020 year by 1.1 million, with maybe an additional .5 in Q1 of 2021, making it 2.5 million copies in total.
According to google searching what the game cost to make, first result gave me with budget of between €20m ($22.2m) and €30m ($33.3m).
So it took them likely 14-20 months to turn their game profitable. CDPR did that in release day, from preorders alone.
Just saying that 13.7 million is pretty effin huge number, and if you're able to double it in 12-18 months (where you'd assume people will eventually buy it once it goes on sale for PC), many other companies are dreaming about these kinds of figures.
So yes it turns out this game might not print the money in such massive scale the GTA 5 has done for Rockstar, but keep in mind CD Project was practically an indie studio in verge of bankruptcy before Witcher 3's success. Rockstar had been creating 3D racing gangster games over 22 years and had basically entire reputation resting on each game having something small added to it's existing mechanics.
And now that CDPR was making something like €461M in sales and acquisition of Digital Scapes (to be renamed CD Projekt RED Vancouver), the long standing relationship with development studio responsible for bringing multiplayer for many games, (who btw had already worked 2 years on Cyberpunk multiplayer features prior to Cyberpunk launch).
And yet people are waving their hands in the air and shouting "Look at me, I am an honest games journalist. CDPR is in BIIIIG trouble!".
Yeah I get that their revenue growth is bad in Q1, but there's no multiplayer yet... would be pretty dumb to assume there is no news coming about that in E3 them being working on that for 2 years, it could take till next year's summer (as the road map and everyone including me already kinda estimated), but it could also be something they plan to announce to be paired in the "next gen release" (similar how GTA 5 did it).
Not only there's no multiplayer but there's also going to be expansion or two in the way, and I don't think those near 15 million current buyers are just going to shrug their shoulders when they come out, so that's already 30€ a copy * 2 which is roughly the same €461M in sales, without gaining a single new buyer for Q2,Q3,Q4, next years Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 the next year after Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 before final expansion I'd assume... until I'd assume 2 years pause until Witcher 4 and 1-2 years till Cyberpunk... lets call it Cyberpunk: Evolved (referring to the original Cyberpunk 2020 expansion of Cybergenerations and it's CyberEvolved beings)... just pure speculation.
And there's even no counting of what potential microtransactions they might implement for multiplayer (don't think it's going to be skins like in CSGO, but maybe if you play some PVP round, in start you get to use emotes or sprays. I don't think they would go so greedy, but who knows
.
So even with not a single new buyer in whole of 3 years, and everyone were to skip any potential microtransaction, and multiplayer not attracting a single new buyer (probably a bit unrealistic, but still), they would still make, even with all the development cost for these expansions, roughly half in profits.
Not to mention how of course there's the Cyberpunk themed Anime series planned for next year (I guess in preparation for Multiplayer patch, but of course multiplayer could be sooner), how Witcher season 2 is going to be likely teased in coming month and it further peaking interest of those who've not yet played wild hunt, how there are other series planned for Witcher etc... I highly doubt the company is going anywhere anytime soon.
Sure if you're aiming to only look ahead only 1 month ahead of time, there might be nothing promising in horizon. Especially how poorly CDPR is keeping the community informed of anything happening with the patching... I mean they do inform us about what WAS patched very well (a little bit too detailed might I say), but it's just seems they don't want to overpromise features that might take longer to patch in... now, CD Projekt... you don't have to tell us when X is going to be fixed, just tell that you're working on these features, show up some beta builds, we can take the rough edges. At least that'd make the gaming community excited to see SOMETHING rather than weak sales numbers.
Still... Even with Sony accepting the game back in store just for the PS4 sake, likelihood of some epic level of surge of new gamers is veeeery unlikely happen... maybe 5% more in total sales by the year 2025, but most sales will likely come from next gen and PC, and of course from those 5% lets say half to two thirds is will also be those who'd buy the next gen console anyway, so it's not really a huge profit lost... granted if there's not another struggle with next gen update... and they can't manage to start convincing consumers about future content and listening community feedback, making all these barbers and car modifications, gang reputation system etc, then maybe there would be something to be scared.
I think there's still nothing to be really afraid of, considering that SOME people like me have actually checked what they did for Witcher 3 expansions. And I've not even finished Witcher 2 yet. I've played Witcher 3 but stopped after slaying Griffin. I'm a terrible fan. But I still despite all of that am able to understand that these guys listen and make changes, bring out new quests based on fan feedback.
Yeah the release was pretty reckless and the game could've used delayed launch for consoles, even until the next gen versions release date for next winter. They could have just called it... what's it called? Early Access. And then just kept working on the game, while having a steady population of I guess maybe 50% of less people playing overall, maybe 5 million people playing in Early Access? And then after getting a lot of positive feedback from everyone, then make a full release in next years winter sales.
People say that CD Projekt did excellent with the marketing, but I think it's the exact opposite, they could have done the marketing 100 times better just by letting players know that it's not really the complete product and one more year would have to be sacrificed for it. In fact I think I'm on the opposite side of most of these "Game Journalists" opinions like them blaming investors for pressuring the release... with not a single evidence where you could easily find transcripts or listen in calls yourself.
Yes the game was performing poorly and it was received poorly. The PC experience was "finished" and unlike some people... who really shouldn't be games journalists said game crashes every 5 minutes... I had only 1 crash in 1.22, recently. And that's it. And I played since launch. Tried every new patch, read most patch notes etc.
I hope the LEADERSHIP of CDPR had learned harsh lesson and will be very unlikely to suffer such humiliation again, and I really hope for the next release they plan listening fan feedback either by some form of early access program, perhaps some limited testing program contracts where you're allowed to play the game and all your crashes are reported to them, you get to give your opinion about game etc.
Of course the game had large scale and there was a lot of problems I assume with distance working, being hacked etc, so I don't blame developers for being incompetent.
Of course it could be as well that the game had bad communication between the teams and leadership and this what caused the big blunder and with the change in hierarchy and boosting the communication it's going to be solved.
But it doesn't instill a lot of confidence when update to the roadmap is pretty much the same as it was on release day.
I mean something like this even would be welcome:
I seriously hope when in there was talks of turning things around, that it really mean like opening up and showing what you can do and not just being "well we're... we're gonna make fixes till 2022 and maybe... if we have time... for some DLC."
I mean there had been few rumors/leaks already with was it 12 DLC contents being listed or something and all you had to do to respond was "The amount of DLC packs planned is in that range, but names are wrong.", anything but "hey it's all fake."
I just find it hugely strange... unless they're planning to surprise us all in E3, otherwise it's just very very strange with the 60% of Cyberpunk crew working on new content, when it took just roughly 6 months of work to craft new expansion (Hearts of Stone 13.10.2015 - Blood and Wine 30.05.2016).
I mean there's talks about "project you just been working with 1/3 of staff" which you again stayed very coy about... which would lead someone like me to assume that's 6 months later after release, is kind of in a timetable to announce new expansion...... but if it not...
I think it's just very very very strange behavior, if there's really nothing to show for in E3... then it starts to sound like you're just grasping air entire year for nothing...
I mean show us something. Make these doubters go F themselves. 6 months of radio silence is... I guess typical CDPR, if there is preparation of something to be announced.
But can there be some middle ground, where you kinda tease that you at least show up there? Make it anonymous leak if you have to.
I don't think this kind of strategy works well in current environment... but then again it might... it's just not very satisfying to wait.
I guess we'll truly only know when E3 comes around.
But if this company was game like Remedy Entertainment, these numbers of sales in just Q1 (if they were around 1 million units) would still be earth shattering.
Their most recent game Control roughly 2 years (being released in August 2019) had sold 2 million units.
In their initial release year they managed to accumulate €17.7M in sales where reports said they only gained roughly 45% only from sales meaning an estimated €39,33M euro (17.7 / 0.45) worth of money changed hands with consumers. Assuming game went into sale once before winter or during winter sales, lets say average sale price for product was in 45€. With this formula we can assume the first year the game sold roughly ~900 000 copies.
Only much later the game has gotten at least a little bit more recognition in the media and the sales have went up in the following 2020 year by 1.1 million, with maybe an additional .5 in Q1 of 2021, making it 2.5 million copies in total.
According to google searching what the game cost to make, first result gave me with budget of between €20m ($22.2m) and €30m ($33.3m).
So it took them likely 14-20 months to turn their game profitable. CDPR did that in release day, from preorders alone.
Just saying that 13.7 million is pretty effin huge number, and if you're able to double it in 12-18 months (where you'd assume people will eventually buy it once it goes on sale for PC), many other companies are dreaming about these kinds of figures.
So yes it turns out this game might not print the money in such massive scale the GTA 5 has done for Rockstar, but keep in mind CD Project was practically an indie studio in verge of bankruptcy before Witcher 3's success. Rockstar had been creating 3D racing gangster games over 22 years and had basically entire reputation resting on each game having something small added to it's existing mechanics.
And now that CDPR was making something like €461M in sales and acquisition of Digital Scapes (to be renamed CD Projekt RED Vancouver), the long standing relationship with development studio responsible for bringing multiplayer for many games, (who btw had already worked 2 years on Cyberpunk multiplayer features prior to Cyberpunk launch).
And yet people are waving their hands in the air and shouting "Look at me, I am an honest games journalist. CDPR is in BIIIIG trouble!".
Yeah I get that their revenue growth is bad in Q1, but there's no multiplayer yet... would be pretty dumb to assume there is no news coming about that in E3 them being working on that for 2 years, it could take till next year's summer (as the road map and everyone including me already kinda estimated), but it could also be something they plan to announce to be paired in the "next gen release" (similar how GTA 5 did it).
Not only there's no multiplayer but there's also going to be expansion or two in the way, and I don't think those near 15 million current buyers are just going to shrug their shoulders when they come out, so that's already 30€ a copy * 2 which is roughly the same €461M in sales, without gaining a single new buyer for Q2,Q3,Q4, next years Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 the next year after Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 before final expansion I'd assume... until I'd assume 2 years pause until Witcher 4 and 1-2 years till Cyberpunk... lets call it Cyberpunk: Evolved (referring to the original Cyberpunk 2020 expansion of Cybergenerations and it's CyberEvolved beings)... just pure speculation.
And there's even no counting of what potential microtransactions they might implement for multiplayer (don't think it's going to be skins like in CSGO, but maybe if you play some PVP round, in start you get to use emotes or sprays. I don't think they would go so greedy, but who knows
.So even with not a single new buyer in whole of 3 years, and everyone were to skip any potential microtransaction, and multiplayer not attracting a single new buyer (probably a bit unrealistic, but still), they would still make, even with all the development cost for these expansions, roughly half in profits.
Not to mention how of course there's the Cyberpunk themed Anime series planned for next year (I guess in preparation for Multiplayer patch, but of course multiplayer could be sooner), how Witcher season 2 is going to be likely teased in coming month and it further peaking interest of those who've not yet played wild hunt, how there are other series planned for Witcher etc... I highly doubt the company is going anywhere anytime soon.
Sure if you're aiming to only look ahead only 1 month ahead of time, there might be nothing promising in horizon. Especially how poorly CDPR is keeping the community informed of anything happening with the patching... I mean they do inform us about what WAS patched very well (a little bit too detailed might I say), but it's just seems they don't want to overpromise features that might take longer to patch in... now, CD Projekt... you don't have to tell us when X is going to be fixed, just tell that you're working on these features, show up some beta builds, we can take the rough edges. At least that'd make the gaming community excited to see SOMETHING rather than weak sales numbers.
Still... Even with Sony accepting the game back in store just for the PS4 sake, likelihood of some epic level of surge of new gamers is veeeery unlikely happen... maybe 5% more in total sales by the year 2025, but most sales will likely come from next gen and PC, and of course from those 5% lets say half to two thirds is will also be those who'd buy the next gen console anyway, so it's not really a huge profit lost... granted if there's not another struggle with next gen update... and they can't manage to start convincing consumers about future content and listening community feedback, making all these barbers and car modifications, gang reputation system etc, then maybe there would be something to be scared.
I think there's still nothing to be really afraid of, considering that SOME people like me have actually checked what they did for Witcher 3 expansions. And I've not even finished Witcher 2 yet. I've played Witcher 3 but stopped after slaying Griffin. I'm a terrible fan. But I still despite all of that am able to understand that these guys listen and make changes, bring out new quests based on fan feedback.
Yeah the release was pretty reckless and the game could've used delayed launch for consoles, even until the next gen versions release date for next winter. They could have just called it... what's it called? Early Access. And then just kept working on the game, while having a steady population of I guess maybe 50% of less people playing overall, maybe 5 million people playing in Early Access? And then after getting a lot of positive feedback from everyone, then make a full release in next years winter sales.
People say that CD Projekt did excellent with the marketing, but I think it's the exact opposite, they could have done the marketing 100 times better just by letting players know that it's not really the complete product and one more year would have to be sacrificed for it. In fact I think I'm on the opposite side of most of these "Game Journalists" opinions like them blaming investors for pressuring the release... with not a single evidence where you could easily find transcripts or listen in calls yourself.
Yes the game was performing poorly and it was received poorly. The PC experience was "finished" and unlike some people... who really shouldn't be games journalists said game crashes every 5 minutes... I had only 1 crash in 1.22, recently. And that's it. And I played since launch. Tried every new patch, read most patch notes etc.
I hope the LEADERSHIP of CDPR had learned harsh lesson and will be very unlikely to suffer such humiliation again, and I really hope for the next release they plan listening fan feedback either by some form of early access program, perhaps some limited testing program contracts where you're allowed to play the game and all your crashes are reported to them, you get to give your opinion about game etc.
Of course the game had large scale and there was a lot of problems I assume with distance working, being hacked etc, so I don't blame developers for being incompetent.
Of course it could be as well that the game had bad communication between the teams and leadership and this what caused the big blunder and with the change in hierarchy and boosting the communication it's going to be solved.
But it doesn't instill a lot of confidence when update to the roadmap is pretty much the same as it was on release day.
I mean something like this even would be welcome:
I seriously hope when in there was talks of turning things around, that it really mean like opening up and showing what you can do and not just being "well we're... we're gonna make fixes till 2022 and maybe... if we have time... for some DLC."
I mean there had been few rumors/leaks already with was it 12 DLC contents being listed or something and all you had to do to respond was "The amount of DLC packs planned is in that range, but names are wrong.", anything but "hey it's all fake."
I just find it hugely strange... unless they're planning to surprise us all in E3, otherwise it's just very very strange with the 60% of Cyberpunk crew working on new content, when it took just roughly 6 months of work to craft new expansion (Hearts of Stone 13.10.2015 - Blood and Wine 30.05.2016).
I mean there's talks about "project you just been working with 1/3 of staff" which you again stayed very coy about... which would lead someone like me to assume that's 6 months later after release, is kind of in a timetable to announce new expansion...... but if it not...
I think it's just very very very strange behavior, if there's really nothing to show for in E3... then it starts to sound like you're just grasping air entire year for nothing...
I mean show us something. Make these doubters go F themselves. 6 months of radio silence is... I guess typical CDPR, if there is preparation of something to be announced.
But can there be some middle ground, where you kinda tease that you at least show up there? Make it anonymous leak if you have to.
I don't think this kind of strategy works well in current environment... but then again it might... it's just not very satisfying to wait.
I guess we'll truly only know when E3 comes around.
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