Wrong predictions 25 years later

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Wrong predictions 25 years later

I would like to know now that we`re in 2013

What did CP2020 got right (or most likely to get right) in its predictions
and what did it miss
 
Well, as far as what the straight up timeline of events in Cyberpunk 2020 got right and wrong, you can see for yourself:

 
I eagerly await the anti-lawyer purge. We're LATE, Mike! Hurry up!

Some of these are weirdly close to what happened, only with a twist or two. A point has been made that the Iraq war was fought over oil interests at the behest of Big Oil and Halliburton, for example. Not a corp on corp war...but awfully corporation influenced.

That also lines up with the second invasion of Iraq, although no one was abandoned.

There was no Tesla Johanneson, but there was Julian Assange and Bradley Manning.

There was no toxic spill..but there was the Deepwater Horizon in 2010, recovery will take decades from that.

What worries me is how many of these - like the food riots and the wasting plague, seem quite possible but haven't happened yet.

It's much like Mike took 200 years of change and compressed it into 20 years. I hope he's wrong more often, but cyber-mercenaries, bioplagues, food crashes and nuclear accidents do seem awfully probable.

I think it's that you could switch a few details around on many of these "Pittsburgh" for "Fukushima", "Columbian Drug Lords" and "tactical nuclear device" for
Extremist Moslems" and "passenger jets", jiggle a couple years and voila, events uncomfortably close to what we live through now,
 
It's much like Mike took 200 years of change and compressed it into 20 years. I hope he's wrong more often, but cyber-mercenaries, bioplagues, food crashes and nuclear accidents do seem awfully probable.

its probably like this.....but yeah its possible that much of this will happen sooner or later...
 
I eagerly await the anti-lawyer purge. We're LATE, Mike! Hurry up!

Some of these are weirdly close to what happened, only with a twist or two. A point has been made that the Iraq war was fought over oil interests at the behest of Big Oil and Halliburton, for example. Not a corp on corp war...but awfully corporation influenced.

That also lines up with the second invasion of Iraq, although no one was abandoned.

There was no Tesla Johanneson, but there was Julian Assange and Bradley Manning.

There was no toxic spill..but there was the Deepwater Horizon in 2010, recovery will take decades from that.

What worries me is how many of these - like the food riots and the wasting plague, seem quite possible but haven't happened yet.

It's much like Mike took 200 years of change and compressed it into 20 years. I hope he's wrong more often, but cyber-mercenaries, bioplagues, food crashes and nuclear accidents do seem awfully probable.

I think it's that you could switch a few details around on many of these "Pittsburgh" for "Fukushima", "Columbian Drug Lords" and "tactical nuclear device" for
Extremist Moslems" and "passenger jets", jiggle a couple years and voila, events uncomfortably close to what we live through now,


This,,, scarily this......
 
It would be interesting to compare the accuracy to Think Tank predictions from the same era. At a quick glance, I suspect Mike's hit rate was higher than most experts.
 
Hi Chombas,

To me...

Right :
- the end of the state/nation and the avenement of corpos/nation.
- The ground of the futures wars : cyberspace.
- The dislocation of middle social class between poor and very poor.
- The web, the cybernetics. Just amazing. Do they have taken some illegals substances to be so visionary ? Google glasses, a revolution ? Ask to Kiroshi.
- The reputation, the fame and the style which give you the right to be wrong.
- The power of mass media to brainwash populations.
- The magnetic levitation. The Japaneses will told you how does it works. I didn't say Arasaka.
- Mind control : brain wash and capacity to act on the real by thought thanks to adapted protheses and softwares. Ask to Mattel.
- The euro/dollar currency.
- The addiction of something (drugs, sex, rock n'roll, web, guns...) because the real world is sucked by the virtual.
- The IA / the automatic data calcul for the moment. Phylosophic question of the conscience... Do they will have their own conscience one day, just by the calcul and the control of the datas or something else is missing ? Soul, God or anything else...

Wrong :
- The final crash (data/states), for the moment...
- The wi-fi connexions to the web. No more wire in 2k20 in my opinion.
- The space projects like crystal pallace, much more far from us in history.
- The euro nations power.
- The control of gangs by multinationals. Perhaps It will come.
- The emergence of China and India.
- The possibility for a mind to live forever in the web / The capacity to contact aliens thanks to the web.

But it's very possible i'm wrong, who knows ?
 
Yerp!

Also, wired connections will almost certainly always exist. Higher transfer rates. The net you connect to is built on a fibre backbone. ALSO, much more secure.
 
I just recently reread the Land of the Free source book. The parts about the backlash over US spying activities and economic interference and manipulation were eerily on point.
 
In response to B52's list, I've bea few response observations


- the end of the state/nation and the avenement of corpos/nation.


Well, we are not here quite yet for full on Corporatism, but most certainly we do have a severe problem with collusion between the Legislative and Business Sector. And anyone who thinks various legislators won't use their power to squeeze a bribe out of Corporations, then blame the Corporation for corruption when it get's noticed is not paying attention.

- The ground of the futures wars : cyberspace.

Most definitely here. Now Add drones to the electronic warfare going on and Cyberspace duels take on a much deadlier effect depending on what's going on


- The dislocation of middle social class between poor and very poor.


To quote Bob Dylan” They'll make us beggars because we are easier to please...


- The web, the cybernetics. Just amazing. Do they have taken some illegals substances to be so visionary ? Google glasses, a revolution ? Ask to Kiroshi.

Hell, there is stuff I've never even considered, both mundane and gross in the field of cybertech that is just starting to be produced. Google Glass = Early Netshades


- The reputation, the fame and the style which give you the right to be wrong.

See Miley Cyrus for a more extreme example of this. But it is self mitigating if you become obnoxious enough.

- The power of mass media to brainwash populations.

Net54 and DMS are here most definitely, but with a wrinkle that probably deserves a bit more attention on the Power of Mass Media. Depending on the Agenda being pushed, the MediaCorp will run or spike stories as needed. What isn't making the screamsheets and what is making them is just as important. And don't expect the media corps to like you if you show them up. Suddenly, Vlogger base media personality who do the leg work and get paid not by the corp, but by how good their rep is suddenly becomes Viable.

- The magnetic levitation. The Japaneses will told you how does it works. I didn't say Arasaka.

The Shinkansen has been around since the late 80s...I think?


- Mind control : brain wash and capacity to act on the real by thought thanks to adapted prostheses and softwares. Ask to Mattel.

Behavioral control software implanted in the cyberlimb? Hmm...be kinda hard to pull off , depending on the interface used. But that 10k Euro in 'Free Cybertech' you can get by owing something would definitely have a few surprises installed

- The euro/dollar currency.
The Euro has bee a long time coming really. What interests me is the rise of a non-nationally backed , encrypted currency that is used as a unit of trade (BitCoin). I can defintiely see something like this sued on the street for payment instead of Euros

- The addiction of something (drugs, sex, rock n'roll, web, guns...) because the real world is sucked by the virtual.
Rehab has been about for some time. It's just the drugs in 2020's are so damned ugly. But Nano-medicine and targetted drugs might make things more curiable. You just need the cred for it


- The IA / the automatic data calcul for the moment. Phylosophic question of the conscience... Do they will have their own conscience one day, just by the calcul and the control of the datas or something else is missing ? Soul, God or anything else...

A.I's might be a bit out of our current reach, but the rise of Smart frames are definely getting there. Give it a bit, and we might see something. But what we see, we might not recognize....


- The final crash (data/states), for the moment...

There will never be A Final Crash. There will be a series of Transformations.


- The wi-fi connexions to the web. No more wire in 2k20 in my opinion.

Wifi is FAR less secure than hardware based landlines, not to mention the amount of data losage in packet over air. Best Guess is that anything important will still be moved on encrypted landline, and the minor stuff will be wireless. Of coure, the advances in Quantum Encryption technology might make that kinda moot too....


- The space projects like crystal palace, much more far from us in history.

Crystal Palace might be viable in 2077. With the advent of Deep Space Mining Corporation, Planetary Resources, And the new SpacePort USA area, it's simply going to take a bit longer. Space corp viability simply requires people being able to make money from the venture to work.


- The euro nations power.

I kinda considered this a bit of an oddity for the setting, but was willing to run with it. The Asian market being the new economic block doesn't really work either. The Bit coin economy suddenly looks more viable.


- The control of gangs by multinationals. Perhaps It will come.

Given what I know about Yakuza, Mafia, and other criminal cartel options, it's far more likely that criminal gangs might get control of some corporations via purchase of voting stock or intimidation tactics such as making noise or a fuss in stock holder meetings. The corps pay hush money or go along to keep things 'proper'.

- The emergence of China and India.

The jury is still out on this.


- The possibility for a mind to live forever in the web / The capacity to contact aliens thanks to the web.
Given what we know, would you want to live forever?
 
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