The Third Nilfgaard War - The Thread for Miliary Enthusiasts

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The Third Nilfgaard War - The Thread for Miliary Enthusiasts

I thought people would love to read my analysis of the Third Nilfgaard War.

I hope everyone enjoys!

The Third Nilfgaard War

I try and discuss the various factors involved in the conquest of the North by Nilfgaard and how it can potentially turn around on them. I'd like to hear everyone's own thoughts on how the war progressed, what they would have liked to have seen, and what they missed.

I actually wrote this article for the page but it kind of grew and grew beyond a post.

Sorry guys.
 
When we are in Vizima ambasador Var Attre could explain how they so easy in six monts reach pontar, there are alot of countries to fight Aerdin, Temeria, Liria and Rivia, Upper Aerdin, Brugge, Cidaris, Verden, plus Verden ,Lyria and Cidaris still has rulers
 
When we are in Vizima ambasador Var Attre could explain how they so easy in six monts reach pontar, there are alot of countries to fight Aerdin, Temeria, Liria and Rivia, Upper Aerdin, Brugge, Cidaris, Verden, plus Verden ,Lyria and Cidaris still has rulers

What we know about Nilfgaardian military modus operandi, is that they put a huge emphasis on cavalry (almost to the point of being ahistorical actually). It is as such possible that by using their superiority in cavalry, they can cause a complete strategic breakdown in their opponents' ranks, by isolating cities, forts, and armies from one another, and then take them piece meal, or maneuver them into a battle of annihilation and break them in one battle.

Which is not really that believable for a medieval empire to do unless somehow the south of the continent is comparable to our own central Asian steppes, where a culture that is based upon mounted-centric warfare can be developed and espoused. But we all know why Nilfgaard is described that way in the books. It is, in military terms, heavily inspired by Nazi germany, with its own emphasis on mechanized warfare and mobility (commonly called "blitzkrieg" but it's not an official standing doctrine and there is no evidence it was referred to as such by German generals until later. The closest thing there was to a blitzkrieg theorist was Heinz Guderian in his "Achtung - Panzer!").

Which is a fault in the novels to be honest, as far as I am concerned.
 
When we are in Vizima ambasador Var Attre could explain how they so easy in six monts reach pontar, there are alot of countries to fight Aerdin, Temeria, Liria and Rivia, Upper Aerdin, Brugge, Cidaris, Verden, plus Verden ,Lyria and Cidaris still has rulers

1. Aedirn defeated before the game: I'm of the mind that Aedirn both upper and Southern have been taken out of the picture by the time they reach the Velen No Man's Land. The war against King Henselt is one which Saskia the Dragonslayer was always the underdog in and Kaedwin was the much larger dog (and which Nilfgaard is Godzilla). Even in the event of Saskia's victory over King Henselt, the biggest problem of that is the greatest amount of force she can project against Nilfgaard (i.e. her dragon form) isn't going to be available in many possible events as only the ending where she's free is going to be able to do any fighting,.

Even in the endings where she CAN fight, she'd only be able to impede Nilfgaard rather than defeat it. It's possible Saskia would try and negotiate Upper Aedirn to become part of the Empire in such a militarily hopeless situation--and given the general equality in Nilfgaard.

2. Lyria is conquered as well: SInce Roche mentions that as a place which is passed to Nilfgaard.

3. Do we know if Redania has any allies other than Kaedwin or Temeria: Is the Great Alliance of the North dead? Is Rivia being invaded? How about other lands?
 
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1. Aedirn defeated before the game: I'm of the mind that Aedirn both upper and Southern have been taken out of the picture by the time they reach the Velen No Man's Land. The war against King Henselt is one which Saskia the Dragonslayer was always the underdog in and Kaedwin was the much larger dog (and which Nilfgaard is Godzilla). Even in the event of Saskia's victory over King Henselt, the biggest problem of that is the greatest amount of force she can project against Nilfgaard (i.e. her dragon form) isn't going to be available in many possible events as only the ending where she's free is going to be able to do any fighting,.

Even in the endings where she CAN fight, she'd only be able to impede Nilfgaard rather than defeat it. It's possible Saskia would try and negotiate Upper Aedirn to become part of the Empire in such a militarily hopeless situation--and given the general equality in Nilfgaard.

There is a problem with that idea.

Upper Aedirn is mountainous. The aforementioned Nilfgaardian modus operandi of cavalry-centric warfare becomes practically nullified. It is as such completely unbelievable to have Upper Aedirn, in case of its victory in TW2, be completely defeated in less than 6 months. Henselt had an easier time because he was attacking it from the Pontar, where he didn't have to deal with nearly as much natural obstacles as Nilfgaard would have had, not to mention that his supply lines would be much shorter and easier to manage.

Secondly, Saskia is a freaking dragon. The amount of havoc and damage she can cause would be a major setback to Nilfgaard. Add to that constant Scoia'Tael harassment, led by Iorveth, a man who not only knows Nilfgaardian military strategy and tactics but has actually *led* Nilfgaardian troops in the previous war, and Nilfgaard should not have an easy time taking Upper Aedirn.

Which really goes to show that the game assumes that Upper Aedirn is defeated, Saskia is dead, and Henselt was killed all in TW2.
 
But in second war they reach only Brenna and it was longer and now in six monts they took all to pontar, and they had truce with Temeria in second war at first and they break it later and attacked Temeria, and is second war they did not conquer Verden cuz king Ervyl opened his foretress to them and worked wit them and he is dead and Verden is now ruled by his son Kistrin who is not supporter of nilfgard, remember La Valette castle Verden has three like that.
If they have truly learned anything', Henselt shrugged, 'they will not cross the Yaruga. The river estuary on the border between Cintra and Verden is still controlled by Ervyll and his three strongholds: Nastrog, Rozrog and Bodrog. They cannot be seized just like that — no new technology is going to help them there.'
 
There is a problem with that idea.

Upper Aedirn is mountainous. The aforementioned Nilfgaardian modus operandi of cavalry-centric warfare becomes practically nullified. It is as such completely unbelievable to have Upper Aedirn, in case of its victory in TW2, be completely defeated in less than 6 months. Henselt had an easier time because he was attacking it from the Pontar, where he didn't have to deal with nearly as much natural obstacles as Nilfgaard would have had, not to mention that his supply lines would be much shorter and easier to manage.

Secondly, Saskia is a freaking dragon. The amount of havoc and damage she can cause would be a major setback to Nilfgaard. Add to that constant Scoia'Tael harassment, led by Iorveth, a man who not only knows Nilfgaardian military strategy and tactics but has actually *led* Nilfgaardian troops in the previous war, and Nilfgaard should not have an easy time taking Upper Aedirn.

Which really goes to show that the game assumes that Upper Aedirn is defeated, Saskia is dead, and Henselt was killed all in TW2.

Yep, I agree. Iorveth's path, with Henselt being alive, Upper Aedirn strong, and Stennis potentially alive, would not allow for TW3 military scenario to make any sense. As well as Henselt surviving on Roche's path and uniting Kaedwen and Aedirn would make a quick take-over by Nilfgaard very implausible. Also in this case his very fortuitous death, which allowed Radovid to take over Kaedwen would be an obvious deus ex machina.
 
But in second war they reach only Brenna and it was longer and now in six monts they took all to pontar, and they had truce with Temeria in second war at first and they break it later and attacked Temeria, and is second war they did not conquer Verden cuz king Ervyl opened his foretress to them and worked wit them and he is dead and Verden is now ruled by his son Kistrin who is not supporter of nilfgard, remember La Valette castle Verden has three like that.
If they have truly learned anything', Henselt shrugged, 'they will not cross the Yaruga. The river estuary on the border between Cintra and Verden is still controlled by Ervyll and his three strongholds: Nastrog, Rozrog and Bodrog. They cannot be seized just like that — no new technology is going to help them there.'

Perhaps Nilfgaard circumvented the strongholds, and kept them under siege to knock them out of the war (which is possible for them to do given their emphasis on cavalry)? Which might explain why Nilfgaard can't concentrate too much of its force on the front.

I don't know, we are doing CDPR's job of trying to make sense of the mess they've made.
 
Perhaps Nilfgaard circumvented the strongholds, and kept them under siege to knock them out of the war (which is possible for them to do given their emphasis on cavalry)? Which might explain why Nilfgaard can't concentrate too much of its force on the front.

I don't know, we are doing CDPR's job of trying to make sense of the mess they've made.

Every time you lay a siege, you leave a chank of your force behind, and at least 3-5 times larger than the defenders. These troops tied up until a siege is resolved. Nilfgaard should have accounted for things like this, but I doubt Emhyr had enough troops to lay sieges. His tactics seems to be to go in hard and fast.
 
Every time you lay a siege, you leave a chank of your force behind, and at least 3-5 times larger than the defenders. These troops tied up until a siege is resolved. Nilfgaard should have accounted for things like this, but I doubt Emhyr had enough troops to lay sieges. His tactics seems to be to go in hard and fast.

Then how did he manage to knock out three reputably mighty fortresses in an amount of time that is considerably shorter than 6 months?
He could have stormed all 3 of them, but the amount of casualties that would have caused would have been absolutely horrendous.

Politicking must have occurred, leading to negotiations or betrayal from within or something to even the scale.
Or, as is much more likely, CDPR didn't really put that much thought into the war at all.
 
There is a problem with that idea.

Upper Aedirn is mountainous. The aforementioned Nilfgaardian modus operandi of cavalry-centric warfare becomes practically nullified. It is as such completely unbelievable to have Upper Aedirn, in case of its victory in TW2, be completely defeated in less than 6 months. Henselt had an easier time because he was attacking it from the Pontar, where he didn't have to deal with nearly as much natural obstacles as Nilfgaard would have had, not to mention that his supply lines would be much shorter and easier to manage.

Secondly, Saskia is a freaking dragon. The amount of havoc and damage she can cause would be a major setback to Nilfgaard. Add to that constant Scoia'Tael harassment, led by Iorveth, a man who not only knows Nilfgaardian military strategy and tactics but has actually *led* Nilfgaardian troops in the previous war, and Nilfgaard should not have an easy time taking Upper Aedirn.

Which really goes to show that the game assumes that Upper Aedirn is defeated, Saskia is dead, and Henselt was killed all in TW2.

The central problem with this idea is that it presumes Saskia and Iorveth would attempt to actively resist Nilfgaard's invasion through the region. Depending on whether Geralt chooses to kill Prince Stennis or not, they may simply choose to negotiate a surrender agreement versus actively attempting to oppose Nilfgaard. If nothing else, both figures would know opposing Nilfgaard would inflict unforgettable suffering on the people of the Pontar Valley while doing no good for anyone BUT the North which neither of them has any loyalty to.

One thing to remember this time around is Emhyr is leading the army personally. There's no chance of another Cintra where the marshals exceed their orders. It's quite likely he may give favorable terms to both in exchange for allegiance. Of course, if the final scene of AOK is the Nilfgaard invasion of Aedirn then they might be taking advantage of the LM Conclave to invade while many major players are aware from the front.

 
Perhaps Nilfgaard circumvented the strongholds, and kept them under siege to knock them out of the war (which is possible for them to do given their emphasis on cavalry)? Which might explain why Nilfgaard can't concentrate too much of its force on the front.

I don't know, we are doing CDPR's job of trying to make sense of the mess they've made.
I guess we can only speculate what is happening, when ambasador show us war map it shows all to pontar conquered by Nilfgard or at least they trying to do so at that time, even Brookilon which i think they would avoid they are not that stupid to attack Brookilon
 
But in second war they reach only Brenna and it was longer and now in six monts they took all to pontar, and they had truce with Temeria in second war at first and they break it later and attacked Temeria, and is second war they did not conquer Verden cuz king Ervyl opened his foretress to them and worked wit them and he is dead and Verden is now ruled by his son Kistrin who is not supporter of nilfgard, remember La Valette castle Verden has three like that.
If they have truly learned anything', Henselt shrugged, 'they will not cross the Yaruga. The river estuary on the border between Cintra and Verden is still controlled by Ervyll and his three strongholds: Nastrog, Rozrog and Bodrog. They cannot be seized just like that — no new technology is going to help them there.'

The situation has changed dramatically there because the past seven years has been spent with Cintra's voluntary allegiance to Nilfgaard, providing it as the perfect stepping-on point for the invasion of the North. Of course, in Temeria, Baroness Lavalette and her supporters (which were enough to start a civil war with King Foltest) are all collaborators with Nilfgaard now.

They may also have LaValette castle if you didn't spare her son.
 
I guess we can only speculate what is happening, when ambasador show us war map it shows all to pontar conquered by Nilfgard or at least they trying to do so at that time, even Brookilon which i think they would avoid they are not that stupid to attack Brookilon

Actually, in the end of TW2, when we see a map of troop movement, it seems like Nilfgaardians do not attack non-human lands at all, and simply go around Brokilon and Mahakam. May be the same idea can be applied to the Upper Aedirn under Saskia, I don't know. Emhyr is OK with granting semi-independence to non-humans (he created Dol Blathanna for the elves), so may be Saskia did make a deal. I doubt we'll ever know though.
 
I guess we can only speculate what is happening, when ambasador show us war map it shows all to pontar conquered by Nilfgard or at least they trying to do so at that time, even Brookilon which i think they would avoid they are not that stupid to attack Brookilon

It may be that Nilfgaard is throwing EVERYTHING forward this time and exterminated the Dryads.

Though, I can't help but think they would consider Brookilon "conquered" by taking the human settlements around it.

---------- Updated at 05:47 PM ----------

Yep, I agree. Iorveth's path, with Henselt being alive, Upper Aedirn strong, and Stennis potentially alive, would not allow for TW3 military scenario to make any sense. As well as Henselt surviving on Roche's path and uniting Kaedwen and Aedirn would make a quick take-over by Nilfgaard very implausible. Also in this case his very fortuitous death, which allowed Radovid to take over Kaedwen would be an obvious deus ex machina.

Though, to be fair, Henselt's death is not entirely implausible because he's a front line King who engages in war personally.

I do think they should just establish a "canon" ending for the games, though.
 
It is impossible for Nilfgaard to have managed to reach Upper Aedirn while Loc Muinne was going on, or even a few months after.

I personally do not subscribe to the idea that Iorveth and Saskia would have been willing to negotiate with Nilfgaard. Iorveth has already been betrayed by them, he knows the state of the Valley of the Flowers being a vassal of Nilfgaard, and Saskia is too much of a reckless hard headed person to not even attempt a fight. Not to mention that the Dwarves have always been willing to fight Nilfgaard quite adamantly and vehemently.

I think making Upper Aedirn submit to Nilfgaard just like that without active resistance to be a lazy way out and, if the game expects us to make that presumption, then it is a major failure on its part. Of course its bigger failure even is not even mention it at all and pretend it never existed. The game is built on the assumption that it was defeated and that Saskia has been killed in TW2.
 
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It may be that Nilfgaard is throwing EVERYTHING forward this time and exterminated the Dryads.

Though, I can't help but think they would consider Brookilon "conquered" by taking the human settlements around it.
I think they just avoid it Dryads don`t leave their forest anyway and are no threat to them, they would suffer great loses if they attack best archers in the world in the forest full of traps it would be stupid move, if you know how dryads live there is nothing to conquer for them in Brokillon they can only found death there, and there is no much people that returned alive from Brookilon anyway

---------- Updated at 05:57 PM ----------

The situation has changed dramatically there because the past seven years has been spent with Cintra's voluntary allegiance to Nilfgaard, providing it as the perfect stepping-on point for the invasion of the North. Of course, in Temeria, Baroness Lavalette and her supporters (which were enough to start a civil war with King Foltest) are all collaborators with Nilfgaard now.

They may also have LaValette castle if you didn't spare her son.
But Verden has 3 La Vallete castles, i am just curious how much time is needed to siege castles of that size, i mean could they conquer everything to pontar that easy in 6 months
 
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The Events of Assassins of Kings would be a matter of degrees rather than kind in their affect on Nilfgaard's invasion

One thing I think AOK was hinting at which is something I think a lot of players missed is the fact that Nilfgaard has the military resources that the only thing which Upper Aedirn's fate will decide will be the amount of casualties which Nilfgaard suffers.

The Nilfgaard amount of resources, both troop and logistical, means that Saskia's continued existence and Prince Stennis and other forces would only be the severity of the damage done to Nilfgaard rather than whether or not they could be halted in their advance.

Nilfgaard is THAT big.

Emperor Emhyr is betting all of his remaining political capital to the conquest of the North in an an "all or nothing" gambit. Indeed, I'm inclined to think that while Henselt's death is canonical, it would make an equal amount of sense that Emhyr's political situation is as unstable as it is if Saskia and Iorveth's efforts have inflicted devastating casualties on the Nilfgaard side for their size.

That they are "brute forcing" their way through.

Which might explain why Nilfgaard's support for the war is less enthusiastic than it might normally be.

---------- Updated at 05:59 PM ----------

But Verden has 3 La Vallete castles, i am just curious how much time is needed to siege castles of that size

Nilfgaard's persuasion of Baron La Vallette to support the Nilfgaard is probably their biggest advantage in Temeria.

Big **** up by Foltest.
 
But Verden has 3 La Vallete castles, i am just curious how much time is needed to siege castles of that size

Siege? Depends on how much food the defenders have, but at least several months. And it will tie up 15,00-20,000 soldiers each. Not worth it. To storm them is a far better alternative, but it will lead to heavy casualties. Some sort of negotiation is the best option though. Saves lots of time and resources.
 
Are we sure the La Valettes are not in full support of Nilfgaard?

He support means they have control of the White Bridge over the Pontar.

In other words, it means the Pontar Valley people are fucked.
 
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