THE Release Date Speculation thread. [Confirmed: 16.04.2020]

[metalmaniac21]

So was CDPR acting stupid when they released The Witcher 3 the same year as Bethesda launched Fallout 4, then ended up outperforming them both critically and financially?

Neither critical acclaim nor financial outperforming happened, Witcher 3 was indeed very profitable but nowhere near as much as Fallout 4. FO4 remains the worst Fallout title ever (all things considered, still worse than Fail76) yet the law of large numbers works well in this case, fanatical approval is outdecibeling any criticism for this so-called game. Even on this forum, the moderators are approving Fallout 4 to some extend and turn upset (like right now) when someone writes harsh truth about it and shrugs off criticism as "unpolite", like it's a talk about a person and not a crappy game.

Also, it's Bloodlines 2 which needs to fight for attention, not Boomerpunk 2077, WoD is a niche license compared to hype generated by collective work of CDPR and Mike Pondsmith and his superior setting.

 

[Shavod]

Neither critical acclaim

I have no idea in what kind of world are you living, but...

https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/the-witcher-3-wild-hunt
https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/fallout-4

Here's the list of awards and nominations for Fallout 4:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_4#Awards

Here's for The Witcher 3:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accolades_received_by_The_Witcher_3:_Wild_Hunt

And it's not even the full list.

nor financial outperforming happened,

According to the statistics, Fallout 4 until 2019 sold nearly 15 millions, but The Witcher series as whole sold over 33 millions copies near the end of 2017, with the great majority of the sales being for The Witcher 3 and while I couldn't find the exact number, it's very likely that Witcher 3 in itself sold more then Fallout 4 by now.

 

[Charles83]

Neither critical acclaim nor financial outperforming happened, Witcher 3 was indeed very profitable but nowhere near as much as Fallout 4. FO4 remains the worst Fallout title ever (all things considered, still worse than Fail76) yet the law of large numbers works well in this case, fanatical approval is outdecibeling any criticism for this so-called game. Even on this forum, the moderators are approving Fallout 4 to some extend and turn upset (like right now) when someone writes harsh truth about it and shrugs off criticism as "unpolite", like it's a talk about a person and not a crappy game.

Also, it's Bloodlines 2 which needs to fight for attention, not Boomerpunk 2077, WoD is a niche license compared to hype generated by collective work of CDPR and Mike Pondsmith and his superior setting.

Disagree with you, way too many reason and this is not the right thread for it, I hope they publish CP2077 tomorrow there is practically 0 competition from any other company at this moment in time.

 

[DoomBlackDragon]

I am betting end of this year. They are already looking for a release manager. This is not someone you plan to hire if you are still 12+ months away from a release. I am betting a new witcher game in 2021.

 

[Rawls]

Yeah I don't think CDPR has much to worry about as far release window competition is concerned. Other than Elder Scrolls 6 and whatever Rockstar does next, there aren't many games that have as much interest as Cyberpunk 2077 seems to.

According to the statistics, Fallout 4 until 2019 sold nearly 15 millions, but The Witcher series as whole sold over 33 millions copies near the end of 2017, with the great majority of the sales being for The Witcher 3 and while I couldn't find the exact number, it's very likely that Witcher 3 in itself sold more then Fallout 4 by now.

Using a little math an deduction can confirm it's sold more. CDPR has officially said the following:
(1) The Witcher 2 sold 1.7 million copies in first year - https://www.ign.com/articles/2012/05/30/the-witcher-2-sells-17-million
(2) The Witcher 3 made 11 times more in sales than The Witcher 2 did over the first 3 years - https://www.tweaktown.com/news/61302/witcher-3-sales-revenue-monster/index.html (not counting expansions sales - which would make it 15x)

Therefore, even if the Witcher 2 sold 0 copies between May 2012 and May 2014, do the comparison between the two and that would still be 18.7 million copies sold of TW3. Of course this isn't entirely accurate, since one figure is in copies shipped and the other is in relative revenue sales ... but it gives a pretty good picture that TW3 sold better than FO4.

EDIT: Actually if TW3 sold 11 x TW2, TW2 sold 4 x TW and they sold 33 million copies in total ... you can roughly estimate it out (again not 1 for 1 because of revenue sales comparison versus copies sold total, and it doesn't account for TW & TW2 sales more than 3 years after release). It would be roughly 29.7 million TW3, 2.7 million TW2, and 675,000 TW = 33.075 million copies

EDIT Again: Did a little more digging, accounting for post 3 year sales for TW2 and TW ... I think the split is probably more like 24 million TW3, 8 Million TW2 and 1 million TW. Apparently TW2 and TW also did well in the lead up and after TW3 release. Of course there revenue numbers are depressed since the games had bargain basement prices by then. Regardless, the underlying point still stands.

 

[Garrison72]

The only competitor would be Rockstar, and they're not likely to release another game for several Years. If you think anything from Bethesda with their outdated engine will garner more hype than Cyberpunk, you're smoking crack. Dragon Age is years away. CDPR is the only other AAA RPG dev.

 

[Andreas_sp]

I am betting a new witcher game in 2021.

Can not find the video anymore... Adam Kiciński said "Witcher is closed"

 

[Charles83]

Can not find the video anymore... Adam Kiciński said "Witcher is closed"

Not exactly I know what video you are trying to reference, and from what I remember the video told us that there was not going to be another witcher game with geralt as the MC, the story of geralt was done, that was all he said as far as I remember, and some youtubers and other people went a bit crazy because we started to speculate that maybe the next witcher game could be with ciri, or maybe with another character, again lots of speculation, little information.

The one that said that the witcher was done, without any accolades was Adam Badowski, and later Adam Kiciński needed to come out and said that CDPR was still intending to put more games of the witcher in the future, but not with geralt (geralt was a trilogy and was considered done after they finished the last expansion of TW3), a bit of confusing PR, but hey I don't mind it.

 

[metalmaniac21]

I have no idea in what kind of world are you living, but...

https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/the-witcher-3-wild-hunt
https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/fallout-4

Here's the list of awards and nominations for Fallout 4:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_4#Awards

Here's for The Witcher 3:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accolades_received_by_The_Witcher_3:_Wild_Hunt

And it's not even the full list.

These are game journalists, not gamers. Two different worlds.

I mentioned the law of large numbers for a reason. The overall undeserved critical acclaim among actual people who pay for games is higher due to even larger fanbase that bethesda still has plus all the newcomers that find it fun shooting raiders and build stuff.

 

[SigilFey]

FO4 remains the worst Fallout title ever (all things considered, still worse than Fail76) yet the law of large numbers works well in this case, fanatical approval is outdecibeling any criticism for this so-called game. Even on this forum, the moderators are approving Fallout 4 to some extend and turn upset (like right now) when someone writes harsh truth about it and shrugs off criticism as "unpolite", like it's a talk about a person and not a crappy game...

These are game journalists, not gamers. Two different worlds.

I mentioned the law of large numbers for a reason. The overall undeserved critical acclaim among actual people who pay for games is higher due to even larger fanbase that bethesda still has plus all the newcomers that find it fun shooting raiders and build stuff.

And why should the journalists and casual players not have their opinions taken into as much account as the far more critical population among "truly hardcore" gamers? It sounds like you're suggesting one group's opinion should somehow be superior to others. That those with a different opinion should be aware that their thoughts and feelings are "wrong".

I hope we're remembering to respect all others at all times.

That being said, the discussion here is the release date. Not people's opinions on public / critical reception of other games. Back on topic, please. (If you want to start a thread lambasting FO4, go ahead. I'll be right there beside you. I thought it was a disaster for a Fallout game. But all other opinions will be welcome, too.)

 

[SigilFey]

Clarifying the "back on-topic" bit.

 

[Heero4Hire72]

Hoping with E3 we finally get a release date and another playthrough would be fun if we could play the demo on PC or console as well.

 

[metalmaniac21]

Hoping with E3 we finally get a release date and another playthrough would be fun if we could play the demo on PC or console as well.

We will (hopefully REDs will bring playable build to local expos where we, the attendees to such, can go to and try it finally and write a negative preview and get banned due to not sticking to general line of the party), it's not called "most important" by CDPR for nothing. It's a great opportunity to show off in public and they know, time has come.

Spoiler

Clarifying the "back on-topic" bit.

You spoke out but suddenly I should stand back now with your word being the last despite that it's clearly unfinished dialogue?

 

[Snowflakez]

We will (hopefully REDs will bring playable build to local expos where we, the attendees to such, can go to and try it finally and write a negative preview and get banned due to not sticking to general line of the party), it's not called "most important" by CDPR for nothing. It's a great opportunity to show off in public and they know, time has come.

I agree entirely about the importance of this, but I'm not sure if E3 will be the place where hands-on demos are allowed, but not because they wouldn't want to, just because it's still more of a journo/corporate event. I believe Gamescom is the place where studios prefer to give audience members hands-on demos, so that's where I'd expect to see people try it.

Spoiler

You spoke out but suddenly I should stand back now with your word being the last despite that it's clearly unfinished dialogue?

 

[metalmaniac21]

I agree entirely about the importance of this, but I'm not sure if E3 will be the place where hands-on demos are allowed, but not because they wouldn't want to, just because it's still more of a journo/corporate event. I believe Gamescom is the place where studios prefer to give audience members hands-on demos, so that's where I'd expect to see people try it.

In Projekts case, if hands-on demo is available at Gamescom or any other late-year expo, then sure it is available at E3, depending on your badge as a visitor of course. If it's the important even then it is important to let people judge the work done since practice is a criteria of truth.

 

[Heero4Hire72]

In Projekts case, if hands-on demo is available at Gamescom or any other late-year expo, then sure it is available at E3, depending on your badge as a visitor of course. If it's the important even then it is important to let people judge the work done since practice is a criteria of truth.

I agree completely

 

[Has_Neyn]

If it's the important even then it is important to let people judge the work done since practice is a criteria of truth.

True. Feedback just from Testers is not enough, we need the whole community to play it and give their feelings.

 

[Shavod]

We will (hopefully REDs will bring playable build to local expos where we, the attendees to such, can go to and try it finally and write a negative preview and get banned due to not sticking to general line of the party), it's not called "most important" by CDPR for nothing. It's a great opportunity to show off in public and they know, time has come.

As per tradition, they'll showcase the hands-on demo of the game at their own event for the media and just maybe a small group of fans (at least they did so with Blood and Wine, as well as Thronebreaker). Expecting a hands-on demo for E3 is rather futile endeavour.

 

[XA1NE]

Beginning of 2077

 

[Johnny.775]

Yeah I don't think CDPR has much to worry about as far release window competition is concerned. Other than Elder Scrolls 6 and whatever Rockstar does next, there aren't many games that have as much interest as Cyberpunk 2077 seems to.

Using a little math an deduction can confirm it's sold more. CDPR has officially said the following:
(1) The Witcher 2 sold 1.7 million copies in first year - https://www.ign.com/articles/2012/05/30/the-witcher-2-sells-17-million
(2) The Witcher 3 made 11 times more in sales than The Witcher 2 did over the first 3 years - https://www.tweaktown.com/news/61302/witcher-3-sales-revenue-monster/index.html (not counting expansions sales - which would make it 15x)

Therefore, even if the Witcher 2 sold 0 copies between May 2012 and May 2014, do the comparison between the two and that would still be 18.7 million copies sold of TW3. Of course this isn't entirely accurate, since one figure is in copies shipped and the other is in relative revenue sales ... but it gives a pretty good picture that TW3 sold better than FO4.

EDIT: Actually if TW3 sold 11 x TW2, TW2 sold 4 x TW and they sold 33 million copies in total ... you can roughly estimate it out (again not 1 for 1 because of revenue sales comparison versus copies sold total, and it doesn't account for TW & TW2 sales more than 3 years after release). It would be roughly 29.7 million TW3, 2.7 million TW2, and 675,000 TW = 33.075 million copies

EDIT Again: Did a little more digging, accounting for post 3 year sales for TW2 and TW ... I think the split is probably more like 24 million TW3, 8 Million TW2 and 1 million TW. Apparently TW2 and TW also did well in the lead up and after TW3 release. Of course there revenue numbers are depressed since the games had bargain basement prices by then. Regardless, the underlying point still stands.

Are you saying that only 1 million people played TW1??

I bought 3 copies of TW1 back in the day. 1 base physical copy, 1 enhanced edition physical copy (since it was like impossible to update the base game to EE...), and then 1 enhanced edition on steam.