36 world states: let's do the math.

[Devils4dvocate]

36 world states: let's do the math.

Ok, first of all this thread doesn't intent to analyze deeply the choices we will have to take in TW3, but just how many major decissions will be and, ok, and maybe the general theme in each one of these. We have been told that TW3 will end with 36 world states. So without considering that some of the choices could avoid take others (this makes a bit difficult the calculations, but it is discussed after) let's do the math.

First approach: five binary (2 possible outcomes) decisions would mean 32 world states (2x2x2x2x2) while six differents decisions will results in 64 ( way too much).

Maybe in some of the choices the possible outcomes will be more than two. 2 binary decissions plus 2 more with three possibilities do the math nicely (2x2x3x3=36) . The same with 4x3x3 (but that will mean just 3 major choices in the game; but a lot of options in each one!). Choices with more than 4 results seems unlikely to me.

Ok, so summing up, we have a maximum number of 5 (being 4 more likely) major decisions during the game, some of them tertiary ones.

Now, about which decisions those will be, let's move to the spoiler tag (everything speculative, but just in case)

Spoiler

First of all, we know we have 3 different endigs. That's our first tertiary choice: 1 decission, 3 outcomes. The nature of this election will most likely recognize the main conflict in the story, that appears to be Ciri and the Wild Hunt. So, in the 3x3x2x2 scheme that will let us 3 more choices (1 tertiary, 2 binary). Those could be related with the political situation in the North (sort of: Nilfgaard wins vs North wins), the sentimental conflict (Yenn vs Triss) and another one (the Free Pontar State? the Lodge Status? the "Witcher order"?) There no much more room, unless some choices negates other: one outcome in one particular choice can negate the possibility to take another one. The easiest example I can came with will be the death of Geralt. If Geralt dies in one of the major endings, the sentimental choice could be unavailable. In that case, the number of total choices will be bigger (possibly one more: 5 or 6 choices). For example, I can imagine this chart (major ending in bold characters)

1. Ciri is alive and free and Geralt is dead. North wins vs Nilfgaard wins. Free Pontar State vs Lodge of Sorceresses. Other binary decision = 8 outcomes.

2. Ciri is ruler of the North and Geralt is alive. Free Pontar State vs New Witcher "Order" vs Lodge of Sorceresses. Triss vs Yenn. Other binary decision. = 12 outcomes

3. Ciri is with the Wild Hunt and Geralt is alive. North wins vs Nilfgaard wins. Free Pontar State vs New Witcher "Order". Bad Ciri vs Good Ciri. Triss vs Yenn = 16 outcomes.

8+12+16=36.

Note how a dead Geralt prevents not only the Triss vs Yenn choice, but also de refoundation of the "Witcher Order". Or how a Queen Ciri signing peace between Nilfgaard and the Northern Kingdoms. Or a Ciri in the Wild Hunt negates the possibility that the Lodge of Sorceresees reunites, but add another possibility...

Anyway, these calculations are just for fun and very basic, and just minor tweaks will result in much more complex scenarios. So, what do you think? Am I forgetting any major conflict you think we should influence on? Do you think this is a decision tree too complex? too easy?

 

[ONLY_ONCE]

Lets not and say we did.

 

[C0bR]

http://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/

 

[thislsmadness]

I don't know if know if things have changed but I recall the GI article said 3 endings with 12 world states each, for a total of 36 world states.

 

[Garrison72]

Need a couple of drinks first. Math alert...

OK. I think the number that matters is three. Three different endings. I won't be counting every world state, personally. Impressive work, OP. Brain needs time to process.

 

[gab96]

Maybe the emperor offers Geralt to restore the Wolf school like he did with Letho.

 

[The_Crow.410]

Sorry for asking guys,and this question maybe sound stupid,
But what is a world state?

 

[Rauter]

It's (mostly political) situation at the end of the game (you know, stuff like who lives, which country is the strongest, and so on...)

 

[The_Crow.410]

It's (mostly political) situation at the end of the game (you know, stuff like who lives, which country is the strongest, and so on...)

Now i get it, thanks.

 

[Teer1]

In last interviews from E3 some of developers told that there is even more end game world states. I heard even number 45 or something like this... I don't know if this was mistake or not... but this was interesting info.

 

[EcoSeis]

Like "thislsmadness" said, the game if nothing has changed, will have 3 epilogues, with 3 main outcomes, and 12 variants each, with minor changes.

 

[GuyNwah]

There don't need to be ternary (3-way) decisions to get 3 or 36. Just some that are not independent. To make it as simple and abstract as possible, you can choose "A or not A". If you choose "not A", you can (later) choose "B or C". If you choose "A", you do not get to choose "B or C". The TW2 Act III choices are that way:

Spoiler

If you rescue Triss on Roche's path, you cannot choose whether to give Anais to Radovid or John Natalis; if you help Philippa on Iorveth's path, you cannot choose whether to let Saskia go or kill her.

 

[hardom]

And 12 possibilities it's only possible with choices of 2-2-3 (in any order)
But what guy n'wah said can make this count so subjective, there are two possibilities (or more):
Or if you choose, like A or not A and then B count as one world state,since they have the same impact, and not A and C it's the other option, OR then, A;not A then B; not A then C count as 3.
There also could be more possibilities that I forgot
Also there are other ~300 minor changes in the game, to this number the main influence are secondary quests, where a NPC can or not appear in the main quest if you killed him or not in a secondary one (I think is that what they meant) the opposite applies too, in the sense that the main quest can interfere in a secondary plot

 

[Lieste]

"More than 300". This figure was given as when they 'gave up' trying to count them.

 

[Thothistox]

Sorry for asking guys,and this question maybe sound stupid,
But what is a world state?

It's subjective. It could mean who lives or dies, which country dominates, whether or not the riders of the Wild Hunt are defeated, etc. The only thing that is for sure is that the states are mutually exclusive. Character X cannot be both alive and dead, etc.

 

[dragonbird]

In last interviews from E3 some of developers told that there is even more end game world states. I heard even number 45 or something like this... I don't know if this was mistake or not... but this was interesting info.

It usually depends on how you count. If it's an official developer count, I would expect it to mean the different ways that the final "this is the state of the world" voiceover/dialogue plays out, and the ones that they use to decide which of the three endings you'll get. If you're talking about the myriad of discussions that'll take place in the forums analysing the impact of decisions, it'll be something else entirely.

For comparison, I made it 14 different "world state" endings in TW2 if you imported a savegame from TW1, 12 if you didn't. Double that if a certain prologue choice actually does make a difference, and I've seen analysis that takes it to almost 200 if you include the end-state of major charactors such as Iorveth, Roche, Sile, Letho.

Incidentally, if looking at branches and doing the maths, there can also be convergence. Again, taking TW2 for comparison, the status of Temeria is the same under certain circumstances in both Roche and Iorveth paths:

Spoiler

Roche Path + Let Henselt live + Rescue Triss leads to a split of Temeria between Radovid and Henselt, the same as if you take Iorveth Path

 

[Kinley]

"More than 300". This figure was given as when they 'gave up' trying to count them.

That was regarding the small choices that make up these 36 (or 40+, who knows at this point, there's mixed info coming from different sources) world states.

As @Dragonbird said, seeing W3 is made by the same team (heh.), there's no doubt going to be convergence between what choices comprise these world states, just that it's on a way greater scale. And I'm really curious on how CDPR are planning to pull this off.

 

[nakachoko]

Was there ever a guide how to get the best ending in TW2 and only make the right decisions? I did multiple playthroughs and I'm still not sure about some decisions I made. Not that it would matter, sadly I lost all my saves and have to play TW3 vanilla. I just hope their canon decisions are good, I already will miss a few encounters with old friends, like that elf girl I saved.

:hmm:

 

[dragonbird]

Was there ever a guide how to get the best ending in TW2 and only make the right decisions? I did multiple playthroughs and I'm still not sure about some decisions I made. Not that it would matter, sadly I lost all my saves and have to play TW3 vanilla. I just hope their canon decisions are good, I already will miss a few encounters with old friends, like that elf girl I saved.

:hmm:

I doubt if any was the "right" ending.

 

[nakachoko]

I doubt if any was the "right" ending.

At least most people feel the same way about it. It just that you can decide what country will be in more trouble if you kill certain people in the Roche part or ending.

Spoiler

Glad Letho will have a chance to come back, though we only see his lower body in the trailer.