April 2nd Patch - Predictions

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DRK3

Forum veteran
For those who would like to share what they think will happen when the new leaders arrive and how they will shift the meta.

Which new leaders will be popular? Which old leaders will be replaced or see play again? What current decks will be countered by new decks?

(I will post my own predictions later, as to not influence the responses... and also because i must go have lunch now) :ohstopit:
 
Overwhelming Hunger is likely to enable deathwish to be playable, there is also the MO scenario almost noone uses, which could support such a playstyle and with the new ability tying them together I would not be surprised if we would see a Tier 2-3 deathwish deck using it.
I doubt they will do anything about Arachas Swarm (as one usually nerfs the top end of the ladder and not tthe middle or even the bottom).

SY will try the new leader ability and with the only playable SY archtype being Blindeyes, which all SY decks have to run, we will still only see 1 style of Syndicate (which is funny given that SY is the only faction in the game with horribly designed archtypes), so there will be basically 1 SY deck and only slight variations.

As always Fruits of Ysgith pressure will exist somewhere if the meta is not greedy, so it will probably be mediocre.

Northern Realms will probably get a boosting deck with the new leader ability, so there should boosting (Uprising), scenario (Mobilization) and Inspired Zeal.

People will start using Imposter and at some point realize it is among the weaker NG leader abilities, if not their worst.

Skellige will maybe see a little representation on the new Blaze of Glory ability, it is better than people give it credit for, however by no means stronger than Patricidal Fury or Second Wind.

The dwarf changes (apparently large enough that the only statement for ST is how many non-dwarves get changed) will decide whether Mahakam Forge will be top tier, given that I have a soft spot for dwarves (maybe my favourite archtype) I might be reading a bit too much into it, however Mahakam Forge appears like it could make dwarves playable again (unlike now, where dwarves are just a bad joke).
No ST deck will vanish and Dwarves will join (for how long will be decided by how solid they will be).

And that is basically all.
I expect the new abilities to at the very least spark new Tier 2-3 decks (maybe not Hidden Cache and Blaze of Glory) or be solid to playable alternatives.

I do not expect any of the new leaders to warp the meta at all (except maybe Hidden Cache, given that SY is already willing to run awful leader abilities, so Hidden Cache does not exactly have strong competition, although that does not necessarily mean it will be better).
 
It will be a mess, as always.
Right now I think 80% of cards need a rework, and they should work on this.
Instead, they throw new leaders, which will create even more chaos.
 
I just hope that Damien finally gets his skill changed, if not NG vs Imposter Matches will end up being the Season of the Wild Hunt Damien de la Tour Boys revival.
 
Only thing we can say for sure is that the first week will be a mess :)

As for the new leaders:
SY - looks good, maybe we'll finaly get 2 diferent SY decks ;)
SK - probably bad, but 12p removal (24p with Hjalmar!) on leader is no joke, so it will probably be meta dependant.
ST - could be good, if the changes to dwarves are good. But i think dwarves will be played with different leader and Forge will be useless.
NR - looks kind of broken with Anséis, this one will probably shake up the meta the most.
MO - IMO it's not enough to make Deathwish great again, but maybe it can make Crimson Curse viable (y)
NG - very situational, could be broken, could be useless. If the lock archetipe works well, we will no doubt see countless new "Please nerf NG" threads :D
 
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MO - IMO it's not enough to make Deathwish great again, but maybe it can make Crimson Curse viable (y)
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Personally I consider that to be far, far less likely than Deathwish being playable, even with Vampires from the ability the fundamental flaws of Crimson Curse remain and it is sadly completely unplayable against an opponent who knows what they are up against.
 

DRK3

Forum veteran
Thanks for all your input guys. Here's what i think will happen:

- in the first few 3/4 days, all 6 new leader abilities will see a lot of play, as everyone wants to try them out (this is almost guaranteed)

- for a few months, NG has been the most popular faction (as in, the most played), despite not being necessarily the best. I think this popularity will translate into their new leader, which will quickly spawn decks more oppressive than enslave, poison and Damien/Skellen decks.

- this imposter ability will control the meta, just like MoO with poison support threw Monsters into the bottom pit. So, now engine decks will not be viable - i think current SK Greatswords will fall out of choice and the new NR boost ability wont have much success because of this counter.

- so i think in the end, Mobilization Siege will still be more popular than the new NR ability. Monsters can do well with tall units, but needs to adapt a bit. Arachas Swarm will remain strong and the new MO ability can actually dodge locks since you use the charge to trigger the deathwish immediately, so that will open several possibilities.

- SY will remain mostly the same, with defender, scenario, luiza-savolla as their go-to cards. But the seductresses and peaches are engines, so they might struggle a bit vs NG locks. And ST might actually achieve something like a balance between elves and dwarves, depending on the changes to dwarves i dont know about yet.
 
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- this imposter ability will control the meta, just like MoO with poison support threw Monsters into the bottom pit. So, now engine decks will not be viable - i think current SK Greatswords will fall out of choice and the new NR boost ability wont have much success because of this counter.
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But Enslave is stronger against engines, why would it being replaced by Imposter (assuming that would happen) be worse for engines if their counter gets less severe ?
(e.g. a 4 point engine, Enslave is worth an immediate 8 points, while Imposter is worth 2 and both move an engine like the target to their own side and disable the target on the opponents side, in this example already Enslave is worth the same +6 points {and we are ignoring that locking engines is worse at dealing with them than removing them altogether})
And how does this counter Uprising ?
Imposter does not copy any boosts, if one plays Tridam or something like that it will likely already have gotten its value by the time Imposter locks it.
Furthermore the only tall unit NR boost decks really create (given that the boosts are spread as thin as possible) are Tridam Infantrymen and whenever they grow they already doubled the value of the boost, killing it after it grows is in no way worth more points than killing it before it grows, the same is even more true for Nathaniel.
 
e.g. a 4 point engine, Enslave is worth an immediate 8 points, while Imposter is worth 2
Isn't Imposter worth an immediate 6? Because you get a copy of the engine (4 points) plus it boosts by 2 - thus you get 6 points, and opponents score remains the same at 4, so it's a net gain of 6 points.
 

DRK3

Forum veteran
But Enslave is stronger against engines, why would it being replaced by Imposter (assuming that would happen) be worse for engines if their counter gets less severe ?
(e.g. a 4 point engine, Enslave is worth an immediate 8 points, while Imposter is worth 2 and both move an engine like the target to their own side and disable the target on the opponents side, in this example already Enslave is worth the same +6 points {and we are ignoring that locking engines is worse at dealing with them than removing them altogether})
And how does this counter Uprising ?
Imposter does not copy any boosts, if one plays Tridam or something like that it will likely already have gotten its value by the time Imposter locks it.
Furthermore the only tall unit NR boost decks really create (given that the boosts are spread as thin as possible) are Tridam Infantrymen and whenever they grow they already doubled the value of the boost, killing it after it grows is in no way worth more points than killing it before it grows, the same is even more true for Nathaniel.

I think you're comparing the 2 NG abilities directly on their value, without context, and that fails to capture the potential of Imposter:
Enslave, you really just seize whatever unit you want (within the point limit), and doesnt need a combo with the card you play from hand. But Imposter will probably be played in combo with Vanhemar or Vattier, providing much more value. And Damiens will still be in these decks, providing more than the 5-8pts they give with Morvran. And Letho KS will have another valuable target in Vattiers (probably protected by defenders).

(i didnt mention the deckbuilding restrictions of enslave as another con, while imposter has total liberty to build the deck as they see fit)

Regarding the interaction with NR boost decks, i dont think they will lock the tridams, when they are big, but the bronze guy that buffs Tridam, and Anna Strenger. Usually when you stop those, you win, they are the base of non-charge boosting decks. But i maybe wrong, NR may come up with something more efficient to boost (i used the neutral cow guy and commanders horn, long long ago, maybe that will see play now)
 
Isn't Imposter worth an immediate 6? Because you get a copy of the engine (4 points) plus it boosts by 2 - thus you get 6 points, and opponents score remains the same at 4, so it's a net gain of 6 points.
Right, I somehow only counted the relative size, which makes no sense, you are right, it would be 6.

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Enslave, you really just seize whatever unit you want (within the point limit)
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Bu the power limit should includes practically all engines anyways, so having no such restrictions does not matter in the case of engines (which we were arguing about) (except a 9 coin Saul).

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But Imposter will probably be played in combo with Vanhemar or Vattier, providing much more value.
[...]
With Vanhemar you basically get the same deal as with Enslave, only that you also use a 5 point 6 provision unit you have to draw.
Vattier is fragile and I am unsure if Vattier is more than a meme.

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And Damiens will still be in these decks, providing more than the 5-8pts they give with Morvran.
[...]
But in the context of engines Damien does the exact same for Enslave and punishes engines harder.

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And Letho KS will have another valuable target in Vattiers (probably protected by defenders).
[...]
That sounds like a recipe for disaster, you are already extremely vulnerable to defenders being removed and with the surge of cards such as Heatwave people do not even need to adapt to crush these combos and if this combo would ever become oppressive people would start running 1 purify unit like pellar.

[...]
(i didnt mention the deckbuilding restrictions of enslave as another con, while imposter has total liberty to build the deck as they see fit)
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That is an advantage in general, however in the case of engines those cards you have to run happen to sometimes be control tools like Assassination and Tourney Joust. (It is a massive advantage in general, however I wonder if it matters all that much in thius situation).

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Regarding the interaction with NR boost decks, i dont think they will lock the tridams, when they are big, but the bronze guy that buffs Tridam, and Anna Strenger.
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Again, those are also ideal Enslave targets.

Imposter may have an edge over Enslave, I am kind of doubting that, however I do not see how Imposter would be stronger against engines.
 

DRK3

Forum veteran
@InkognitoXI Regarding Heatwave, there's something i forgot to mention in my predictions and its relevant to this discussion:

- I think scenarios will lose a bit of popularity with this patch. Mostly because the new abilities have no synergy with the respective scenarios, except SY, and maybe a bit MO (however i do think Death's Shadow is still better for Haunt, because it allows to play and instantly advance scenario to Ch1, reducing the risk in case of artefact removal)

- In this situation, artefact removal, and heatwave will also see less use, and therefore, less play. So NG Defender will mostly be dealt with with purifies only. And then you still need a 5pt removal to deal with Damien and Letho KS

Locks wont do because these Imposter decks will have plenty of purifies, for the strong possibility of mirror matches, with crazy amounts of Damiens being played. Im even considering Caretaker, but if the opponent uses Imposter on Caretaker, there can be matches with 8-10 Damiens on each side!
 
Thanks for all your input guys. Here's what i think will happen:

- in the first few 3/4 days, all 6 new leader abilities will see a lot of play, as everyone wants to try them out (this is almost guaranteed)

- for a few months, NG has been the most popular faction (as in, the most played), despite not being necessarily the best. I think this popularity will translate into their new leader, which will quickly spawn decks more oppressive than enslave, poison and Damien/Skellen decks.

- this imposter ability will control the meta, just like MoO with poison support threw Monsters into the bottom pit. So, now engine decks will not be viable - i think current SK Greatswords will fall out of choice and the new NR boost ability wont have much success because of this counter.

- so i think in the end, Mobilization Siege will still be more popular than the new NR ability. Monsters can do well with tall units, but needs to adapt a bit. Arachas Swarm will remain strong and the new MO ability can actually dodge locks since you use the charge to trigger the deathwish immediately, so that will open several possibilities.

- SY will remain mostly the same, with defender, scenario, luiza-savolla as their go-to cards. But the seductresses and peaches are engines, so they might struggle a bit vs NG locks. And ST might actually achieve something like a balance between elves and dwarves, depending on the changes to dwarves i dont know about yet.


So if this is the case regarding NG and the Imposter ability, then the solution will lie in swarm or wide point plays to avoid providing the NG player too much value on its ability.
 

DRK3

Forum veteran
So if this is the case regarding NG and the Imposter ability, then the solution will lie in swarm or wide point plays to avoid providing the NG player too much value on its ability.

Yes, a swarm deck will really screw up NG imposter, just like it currently does against poison decks.
But of the new leaders, most arent really swarm-friendly.

The new dwarf ability may not be amazing, but it will probably have a favourable matchup vs Imposters, as it doesnt have any decent targets for it.
The NR one can do either a boost engine version or a swarm version, the latter might do really well vs Imposter.
And the new MO can also do well with swarm, at least that's the 1st one i'll try with Plague Maiden and rats.
 
But Enslave is stronger against engines, why would it being replaced by Imposter (assuming that would happen) be worse for engines if their counter gets less severe ?

Imposter seems quite decent against 7-9 provision "independent" engine cards like Beast, Botchling, Pavko, Treant Board etc, but ofcourse also against those particular Gold Nilfgaard cards in mirror matches. It will (counting no purify) close down their engine card, and give you that engine instead.

Another way to use imposter is probably as a combo to copy a tall unit, then destroy it with Vanhemar or possibly steal it with Vattier. Old speartip in such a case would be a big pointswing, probably at a bad time for the opponent.

I guess it could also just be an emergency lock and copy some points to your side of the board at a convenient or desperate time.

Cards to look out for?:
Vanhemar
Master of Disguise
Defender
Vattier De Riddeaux
Damien De La Tour
Vigi's Muzzle
Vincent Van Moorlehem
Imperial Diviner/Caretaker
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Vattier is fragile and I am unsure if Vattier is more than a meme.

Vattier is pretty much unplayable without a defender. It's basically a card that needs a setup to work, without it will most likely be removed or locked, probably removed as lock is more risky.

Lock, copy+boost and remove Damien in one go seems quite nice.

If times are bad, I guess you can remove a defender too without purify if you have Vanhemar at hand. Even the Nilfgaard copy one will most likely survive more than just one turn.
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But Enslave is stronger against engines, why would it being replaced by Imposter (assuming that would happen) be worse for engines if their counter gets less severe ?

Perhaps think of it as an enslave deck without the requirement for many special cards in tactic cards and low unit deck, so in a way Enslave with units.
 
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