Are legendary drop rates getting worse?

[Footsoulja]

Just opened 19 kegs using ore and only had 1 lonely epic to show for it. Opened a couple reward tree kegs a few days ago and they were weak as well, so it's not as if I recently sniped a bunch of legendaries. Anyone else feel like drop rates have gotten worse since the WoTW expansion?

 

[nehu]

1 epic in 19 kegs sound like fine drop rate, dont think it was any time much better

 

[Six-Sided-Prism]

It certainly seems like my drop rates have been worse recently, but it's difficult to say when dealing with small sample sizes. I'll be able to tell for sure fairly soon since I'll be opening several hundred kegs once I reach Prestige 5. When I started playing Gwent, around 1 in 5 kegs contained an Epic and around 1 in 20 kegs contained a Legendary. Hopefully, that's still the case.

 

[quintivarium]

It certainly seems like my drop rates have been worse recently, but it's difficult to say when dealing with small sample sizes. I'll be able to tell for sure fairly soon since I'll be opening several hundred kegs once I reach Prestige 5. When I started playing Gwent, around 1 in 5 kegs contained an Epic and around 1 in 20 kegs contained a Legendary. Hopefully, that's still the case.

That’s about the rates I’ve recorded in the past. I don’t have a large enough sample post WoW to have reason to think it’s changed.

 

[Messyr]

Nah, no changes.
I had a keg last week with 2 legendaries (1 premium), 1 epic and 2 rares... all the while before that I had a period of 1 week where I had miserable drops out of 30-40 kegs.

Random is random.

 

[Eoleoxx]

Its funny because just yesterday i thought the same when i opened 50 nr kegs and i get from there only 2 legendarys and i usually thought that around 10 kegs means atless 1 legendarys.

But well maybe its just rng.

I got other theory about this legendarys dropping on kegs, which is that the game recognize how much cards u already have collected, and the more u have the less % of gettin high provision, but well is just a theory haha.

 

[Footsoulja]

Its funny because just yesterday i thought the same when i opened 50 nr kegs and i get from there only 2 legendarys and i usually thought that around 10 kegs means atless 1 legendarys.

But well maybe its just rng.

I got other theory about this legendarys dropping on kegs, which is that the game recognize how much cards u already have collected, and the more u have the less % of gettin high provision, but well is just a theory haha.

I thought the same thing, I feel like I had better rates when I first started.

 

[DRK3]

Please do not delve into conspiracy theories about keg drop rates, they tend to spiral down.

Obviously it would be better if CDPR revealed them clearly, it would stop all these conjectures. However im pretty sure they never changed the droprates since Gwent HC started.

MASTER MIRROR KEG DROPRATE RESULTS

Epic Droprate - 21.4%
Legendary Droprate - 6.1%
Total Kegs - 3445

Standard Epic Droprate - 18.4%
Premium Epic Droprate - 2.6%
Standard Legendary Droprate - 5.8%
Premium Legendary Droprate - 0.8%
Total Kegs - 1182

These were the results i obtained after the MM expansion last year. I think i got a decent sample size (thanks to the help of many users who posted their data), but to get really accurate results it would have to be much bigger.
Still i think those numbers give you a good idea, specially since ive seen other users do similar analysis on reddit and their numbers werent much different.

 

[OuterSpaceDoggo]

Just cruel rng, opened 1 keg and found 1 legendary in the first cards and when I had to choose between 3 cards it was an epic one. Of course, being the lucky person I am, they were all cards that I already had.

 

[Messyr]

Not here to cause grief, but just recently bought 17 Ultimate kegs - 4 Legendaries

 

[Eoleoxx]

That 0.8 % makes alot of sense since i have never seen a premium legendary on a keg haha.

 

[Messyr]

For a long while I believed that it is impossible for premium epics or legendaries to drop from Reward Tree bonus golden kegs. They only ever gave me 3-4 commons and 1-2 rares, the possible minimum.
After nearly 1 year of continous playing broke the ice for me: a few weeks before I saw 2 epics and even a premium legendary drop from them - frankly, I thought I was daydreaming.

 

[EduFerraz]

Well, i dont whant to create conspiracy, but for my experience there is "Day-time" for each faction/expansion kegs.

Example, almost all The time i play The game in cellphone After i go to bed, and almost The time i open kegs in that period.

The SC was The faction i have less cards, and i opened a lot of SC kegs in that time.

So i try to open kegs in The afternoon and got a lot of legendaries. (i made that test more than one time).

So my tip is, buy 20 kegs for a faction /expansion, If you dont get to many legendaries, buy more 20 kegs for another faction/expansion and see whats happens

 

[Madlax1992]

I was under the impression the past few weeks that the drop rate for epics and legendary cards increased. Today I opened 2 kegs only. The first was a normal one, with 1 guaranteed rare card and an extra rare card due to prestige. The second one dropped me a legendary. On average, 1 get like 1 legendary and 2-3 epics per 10 kegs. And I have most cards, with the exception of a few useless neutrals.

 

[Messyr]

Random
Is
Random

 

[Lokiat0r]

I just reached Prestige 5, so I opened the 141 kegs that I had accumulated over the past month or so...

36 epics (1 premium), which is roughly 1 epic every 4 kegs, or a 25.5% drop rate
8 legendaries (1 premium), which is roughly 1 legendary every 18 kegs, or a 5.7% drop rate

That seems roughly in keeping with the bulk averages from the Master Mirror results listed above, though it definitely went in "streaks". At one point I received 3 legendaries within 8 kegs, for example.

Sadly, not a single one of the epics or legendaries in the first 4 cards was premium.

 

[Six-Sided-Prism]

As a follow up to what I said earlier, I'm now quite positive that the drop rates are the same as they've always been. I finally reached Prestige 5 and decided to open up 240 kegs. My numbers show that the drop rate for an Epic is still between 20% and 25% and that the drop rate for a Legendary is still slightly higher than 5%. Unfortunately, I also discovered that the guaranteed Premium in the first four cards is always a Common card, never anything of a higher rarity.

 

[RichardIgnanz]

I haven't opened this year any keg so far but I don't think they changed anything at the droprates. We already had the discussion a half year ago and propably also before.
What are the odds on getting a legendary from kegs?

...
Unfortunately, I also discovered that the guaranteed Premium in the first four cards is always a Common card, never anything of a higher rarity.

Then you haven't looked good enough. I have no distinct statisic about the premium drop rates. What I can tell is you that you get at least one rare or higher premium from 40 kegs, sometimes I got more than a handfull, after reaching Prestige 5. Epic premium are rare, legendary premium are very very rare. I think I got only 2 Legendary premium from over 1k kegs after Prestige 5.

 

[Six-Sided-Prism]

Then you haven't looked good enough. I have no distinct statisic about the premium drop rates. What I can tell is you that you get at least one rare or higher premium from 40 kegs, sometimes I got more than a handfull, after reaching Prestige 5. Epic premium are rare, legendary premium are very very rare. I think I got only 2 Legendary premium from over 1k kegs after Prestige 5.

I did receive Premium Rare and Epic cards (sadly no Premium Legendaries) in my 240 kegs, but I'm fairly certain that every time this occurred within the first four cards, that another one of the four cards was a Premium Common. Therefore, it seems likely that the Prestige 5 bonus will only ever upgrade Common cards.

 

[Messyr]

I did receive Premium Rare and Epic cards (sadly no Premium Legendaries) in my 240 kegs, but I'm fairly certain that every time this occurred within the first four cards, that another one of the four cards was a Premium Common. Therefore, it seems likely that the Prestige 5 bonus will only ever upgrade Common cards.

You got it right. The Prestige 5 bonus only works on one of the common cards in each keg. Of course you can receive multiple premiums if you are lucky, but that has nothing to do with the Prestige rank perk.
The only ultra rare exception I saw was when I opened a keg with only rares or better.