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Check out Shupe's Holiday Bag o’ Kegs!

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Dominika

CD PROJEKT RED
#1
Check out Shupe's Holiday Bag o’ Kegs!



To celebrate the arrival of Midwinter, Shupe the Troll made a special Holiday Bag o’ Kegs available in his shop for a limited time. It's a great way to reinforce your card collection with additional units and spells - each Holiday Bag o' Kegs includes 25 Card Kegs, 400 Meteorite Powder and a guaranteed Epic Card!
 

Theodrik

Junior Member
#3
Not too often I think. The Starter Bundle was a really really good and special deal, and that's why they made it obtainable only once.
The Holiday Pack isn't a bad deal. I estimated the value of the pack based on the lowest Keg and Powder prices available today and it's a 20~25% off. Also you can purchase it multiple times. Oh, and if it was not for my luck, the Epic is a guaranteed Premium ;)
 

m0bius8

Junior Member
#8
This should've cost $15 or the kegs should've contained only new cards. I bought one and from the Kegs I'd been saving, it's disappointing how 90% of the cards you get are old. Nothing special about this, I'm afraid.
 

slow_cheeetah

Junior Member
#9
What is more alarming, this questionable bargain is being promoted right after lauching update with tons of bugs and complains.
Complains which CDPR are not bothered with at all.
 

betancurable

Junior Member
#10
Theodrik;n10069461 said:
Not too often I think. The Starter Bundle was a really really good and special deal, and that's why they made it obtainable only once.
The Holiday Pack isn't a bad deal. I estimated the value of the pack based on the lowest Keg and Powder prices available today and it's a 20~25% off. Also you can purchase it multiple times. Oh, and if it was not for my luck, the Epic is a guaranteed Premium ;)

There are people like me that don't care about powder. So, is it a good deal for them? let's do some math:

Holiday pack: $29.54 / 25 kegs = $ 1.18 per keg
The cheapest kegs in Shup's store can be obtained in the 60 kegs pack: $74.50 / 60 kegs = $ 1.24 per keg
How much cheaper is the Holiday pack? (1.24 - 1.18) / 1.24 x 100 = 4.8%

In my opinion, not really worth it. Specially because:
- No legendary card is guaranteed.
- Drop rates seem modified (I only got one old gold card from 55 kegs opened two days ago and there are other people reporting poor drop rates).
- CDPR has not increased the the common cards pool. This means that, for each keg, most of the time people will pull 4 cards out of a pool of 64 old common cards.
 
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Ljusrost

User
#11
betancurable;n10075521 said:
There are people like me that don't care about powder. So, is it a good deal for them? let's do some math:

Holiday pack: $29.54 / 25 kegs = $ 1.18 per keg
The cheapest kegs in Shup's store can be obtained in the 60 kegs pack: $74.50 / 60 kegs = $ 1.24 per keg
How much cheaper is the Holiday pack? (1.24 - 1.18) / 1.24 x 100 = 4.8%

In my opinion, not really worth it. Specially because:
- No legendary card is guaranteed.
- Drop rates seem modified (I only got one old gold card from 55 kegs opened two days ago and there are other people reporting poor drop rates).
- CDPR has not increased the the common cards pool. This means that, for each keg, most of the time people will pull 4 cards out of a pool of 64 old common cards.
I like math, and approve of your calculations!
I'm also with you 100% on the powder issue. I would otherwise not choose to buy powder using real money and thus feel like I'm paying for something that I do not want when it's included in the bundle.

As to whether or not the bundle as a whole is a good deal, we can use your calculations to conclude that it's at least a better deal than what is otherwise available, even if disregarding the powder completely. And I think that's what can really be objectively stated about the holiday bundle. If it's ever a good deal to buy digital only CCG-cards with real money, and if so at what price, is a different topic, though.

Regarding the suspicion of modified drop rates I have personally no insight into whether or not CDPR alters the drop rates between bundles, but I would hope not since it seems a very unethical thing to do and I think that it's a serious accusation to make without reliable proof. I bought the holiday pack and got 2 new gold cards from the 25 kegs, which might not disprove reduced drop rates but at least lends no support to it. This makes me wonder if it's not just a "your mileage may vary"-thing, as is usual in "gambling" of any form.


 

m0bius8

Junior Member
#13
Please look at the feedback and consider lowering the price or something else like a guaranteed new premium Legendary instead of Epic. Hoilday deals are live on Xbox One and AAA titles cost way less than this sorry excuse for a Special Holiday Offer. Makes no sense to waste money on this instead.
 

Theodrik

Junior Member
#14
betancurable;n10075521 said:
There are people like me that don't care about powder.
Well, if you aren't taking into account the Powder and the Premium Epic in the bundle, then this deal is probably not for you. However I might add this to your calculations:
  • An Epic card (non premium) is worth 200 scraps;
  • If you have around 70% of the card collection, 1 Keg is worth around 135 scraps;
  • So basically 1 Epic is worth something close to 1.5 kegs;
  • A more accurate and fair calculation would be to consider the value of the epic card to find the final price per keg for the Holiday Pack, which would be $29.54 / 26.5 = $1.11;
  • (1.24 - 1.11) / 1.24 x 100 = 10.5% cheaper.
betancurable;n10075521 said:
- Drop rates seem modified (I only got one old gold card from 55 kegs opened two days ago and there are other people reporting poor drop rates).
55 Kegs is a very small sample to infer those serious accusations. I opened 60 Kegs and got 4 legendaries, and one was a premium Tibor. Sometimes you just have a bad streak, other times you get pretty lucky... It's all by chance, but on average, you'll get 1 legendary every 15~16 kegs. I have a spreadsheet in which I keep track of all the kegs I've opened so far with the rarity of cards I got in them, and after opening almost 600 kegs I can say the odds are pretty stabelized: ~6,4% for a legendary and ~22,9% for an epic.
 

Kingoko

Junior Member
#15
i opened 60 kegs and 2 golds, and since closed beta i had like 1 gold on 30 kegs. And opened hundreds already, still same ratio for me
 

mli_dragon

Poser
#16
Some people just like to complain. You can't expect to have a full collection just by opening a few dozen kegs, can't you? I opened about 75 kegs and got 5 golds and 20 epics (not including those premium epics.) It's been about 3 months I've played Gwent and I have about 600+/800+ cards (according to my profile.) Yes, I bought the starter pack as well as a couple of the holiday packs and regret nothing.
 

Kingoko

Junior Member
#17
You got to be kidding me. First of all where are numbers of cards owned of chosen type. I wanted to check how many legendary i own and how many is total and you removed even that for no reason. That way i need to count them by myself. So not including leaders i got 51 legends total of 194. And so far i got not even 1 legendary from new patch (yea i got scraps so i craft some later when i will know what i will play and what is fun). And finally after 35 kegs i got legendary you give me that :

https://imgur.com/a/tvLqd

My damn luck :(
 

EternalJxx

Junior Member
#18
Kingoko;n10086061 said:
You got to be kidding me. First of all where are numbers of cards owned of chosen type. I wanted to check how many legendary i own and how many is total and you removed even that for no reason. That way i need to count them by myself. So not including leaders i got 51 legends total of 194. And so far i got not even 1 legendary from new patch (yea i got scraps so i craft some later when i will know what i will play and what is fun). And finally after 35 kegs i got legendary you give me that :

https://imgur.com/a/tvLqd

My damn luck :(
My exact thoughts. I opened 117 kegs and got 4 legendaries and only two of them I didn’t have before (Saskia and Yennefer Tremors). Pretty disgusting
 

bojerbela

User
#19
Opened 106 kegs: 1 Leader (Whispering Hillock), 4 legendary (26,5 kegs/1 legendary), 23 epic (4,6 kegs/1 epic).
 

betancurable

Junior Member
#20
@ Ljusrost: I don't have a reliable proof and that's why I'm not outright claiming that drop rates have been modified. However, based on my own openings and that of others they seem modified and that's all I can say about it since I don't have access to CDPR's confidential data.

While I agree that "your mileage may vary", as you nicely put it, I find the drop rates in my own recent keg openings to be in stark contrast with those of the starter pack, where I got no less than 4 (!) legendaries (excluding the guaranteed one). Sure, sample size is small, but nonetheless striking (coincidental or not, I was a low level player back then).

To be honest, I didn't want to hijack this tread with a discussion about drop rates (which is futile since I lack hard data and EU doesn't force companies like CDPR to publish their drop rate formula(s) and under which circumstances they apply such formulas). I just wanted that people who already got the starter pack (and were pleased with that buy like me) didn't get their hopes too high with this next pack.

@ Theodrik: While I agree with you that I should've included the guaranteed epic into the calculations, I disagree with you on the value estimation. I would rather estimate cards based on their mill value and in this regard an epic card (50 scraps) is less valuable than the worst case scenario keg (60 scraps). Average scrap value of a keg is off course higher making the epic card even less valuable in comparison ("discount" would then be around 7-8%). Regardless whether the savings are 5% or 10%, in my opinion it's still not worth it, but opinions may differ off course ;-)