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Ljusrost: I don't have a reliable proof and that's why I'm not outright claiming that drop rates have been modified. However, based on my own openings and that of others they
seem modified and that's all I can say about it since I don't have access to CDPR's confidential data.
While I agree that "your mileage may vary", as you nicely put it, I find the drop rates in my own recent keg openings to be in stark contrast with those of the starter pack, where I got no less than 4 (!) legendaries (excluding the guaranteed one). Sure, sample size is small, but nonetheless striking (coincidental or not, I was a low level player back then).
To be honest, I didn't want to hijack this tread with a discussion about drop rates (which is futile since I lack hard data and EU doesn't force companies like CDPR to publish their drop rate formula(s) and under which circumstances they apply such formulas). I just wanted that people who already got the starter pack (and were pleased with that buy like me) didn't get their hopes too high with this next pack.
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Theodrik: While I agree with you that I should've included the guaranteed epic into the calculations, I disagree with you on the value estimation. I would rather estimate cards based on their mill value and in this regard an epic card (50 scraps) is less valuable than the worst case scenario keg (60 scraps). Average scrap value of a keg is off course higher making the epic card even less valuable in comparison ("discount" would then be around 7-8%). Regardless whether the savings are 5% or 10%, in my opinion it's still not worth it, but opinions may differ off course ;-)