Developing proper Concepts for Card Evaluation

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Developing proper Concepts for Card Evaluation

Like many (if not all) of the people on this forum I am super excited for Gwent. I love collectible card games and I sunk 150+ hours into the Witcher 3 (a decent amount of which was playing Gwent). The problem is that while we know a lot about the game already we can't play it yet. We don't all the cards so we can't really talk about balance. Since we can't play the cards/factions we don't know what the experience of playing them will be like and if it matches our expectations. In short: we can only speculate. That can be fun, but to me it is boring and unproductive (if it is not for, good for you!). So I thought I would propose a project to shorten the wait while doing something useful in preperation for the BETA: developing concepts for card evaluation.

In most other collectible card games or tradeable card games over their life span the playerbase develops concepts in order to help them understand how good/bad a card really is. If you are familar with the genre you will have heard of them. Examples are "Vanilla test", "Card Advantage", "Tempo" among a myriad of others. These concepts are often applicable to almost all games of the genre since the games are often similar enough (Magic: The Gathering and Hearthstone are prime examples of this). Gwent however is a another case, the framework is fundamentally different in a couple of ways:

- Cards are your only ressource (there is no such thing as Mana)
- You can only play one card per turn.
- You do not draw a card at the beginning of your turn.
- Cards on your side of the board can not interact with the cards on your opponnents side of the board (there is no such thing as creature combat)
- The basic game mode is a best of three, but played with one hand (no such thing as player life count etc.)
- others (honestly there are too many to list them in a )

Since Gwent is so different concepts that were developed for other games do not work for Gwent and as such we have to develope our own. We know that the rules will not change massively from the Witcher "Mini Game" so we can make some progress in developing those concepts prior to the Beta. I do have some ideas which should be a good starting point but I am sure they can be improved upon, which is where the rest of the community (you guys) comes in. Here we go.

I believe that two core concepts should suffice for very basic card evaluation. I label them as "strength differential" and "turn cost" for now (if anyone has a better name, feel free to suggest them :) ) These two concepts should make many different cards comparable, even cards of different types (such as Spells and Units).

Strength Differential

The goal of a game of Gwent is to gain more strength in 2 out of 3 rounds. So the first important part of a card is to consider how much strength it adds to your side or how much strength it detracts from you opponents side when played. The more it does of either of those things the better the card is.
The simplest example is plain hero card such as Hjalmar. Hjalmar adds a 15 strength to your side so he has a basic strength differential of +15 when played.
The other way to affect a cards strength differential is by decreasing the number of points your opponnents has on his side of the board. Imagine you opponent has 2 Griffins (2 plain 8 strength units) in play , you have none. If you now play Scorch you remove 16 (2*8 )strength from your opponents side which results in a strength differential of +16 for you (-16 for your opponent).
Scorch is a great example to show that strength differential is not static. If you play Scorch on an empty board it has a strength differential of 0. So strength differentialbe is variable. Two concepts that are important to consider here are the "floor" and the "ceiling" of a card.
The "floor" of a card refers to its worst case scenario. For Scorch this would be -X if you control the creature(s) with the most power.
For Hjalmar the floor is +15 since he is a hero card and can not be debuffed (strength can not be modified by other cards).
The ceiling for Hjalmar is also +15 since he can not be buffed. For scorch the ceiling is theoretically infinite, which shows that the value of scorch is highly dependent on the micro context (board state) and the macro context (type of decks being played).

A case that can be confusing are cards that have the "Resurrection" such as Priestess of Freya. The strength differential for cards like this is calculated by adding the strength of the card played and the card that is brought back. Imagine you play a Priestess of Freya and then bring back a Griffin. That would be a strength differential of 8 (0+8 ).

Turn Cost/Advantage


In Gwent every card in your hand represents a turn since you can only play one card per turn and you have to play a card if you don't want to pass the round. Having more turns available to you is generally advantageous. Imagine you have won the first round and you have more cards in hand than your opponnent. You can essentially run him/her out of cards since they can't pass without risking losing the game on the spot.
A good way to think of this is that the majority of the cards have a "Turn Cost" of -1, by playing them and decrease the number of cards in your hand by 1. But there are some cards that add cards to your hand. The good old Decoy for instance has Turn Cost of 0, you play it (--1) and then get a card back to your hand (+1).
Just ike strength differential turn cost should factor in your opponents hand size. If you play a card that makes your opponent discard a card that results in a Turn Cost of 0 you play a card (-1) and your opponent discards a card from their hand (+1).

These concepts should suffice to evaluate cards. In order to compare Card Combos and Groups of Cards you just have to calculate the values for both concepts and add them up. How important Strength Differential in comparison Turn Cost is (and vice versa) is hard to tell without playing the game so we will have to wait till October to answer that question.

Properly evaluating cards is important for understanding the game, deck building and tactical decision making. However it is also important when talking about balance. In order to understand how card evaluation factors into balance. To make this easier the next section is about the basics of balance and what questions are interesting when talking about the balance of Gwent.

Basics of Balance

Balance is a complex topic and an attempt to explain it fully would take far too long (and probably bore you to death). So we are going to focus on capturing and understanding the core idea of balance.
Most people base their conception of Balance on the idea of Fairness. Fairness is concept that is used in many different situations but when it comes to games it is mostly used in relation to competitive games (e.g. Counter Strike, League of Legends, Chess). In those games players directly compete with each other and such a game is fair if every competing player/team has an equal chance to win the game. This is easily achievable in symmetrical games. In these games every player has the same set of starting options. It gets more problematic in asymmetrical games where players have different sets of starting options (e.g. in chess white moves first). So far so good but why should (or do) we care about fairness/balance?

A good place to start the search for an answer to this question is a quote from Sid Meier (creator of the Civilization Series, Pirates, Alpha Centauri and other great games):

"A (good) game is a series of interesting decisions"
- Sid Meier

If you are making a decisions you choose in between at least two options. If only one option is viable then the decision becomes redundant since you will choose that option every time. Such a decision can not be interesting.
So for a decision to be possibly interesting you have to have at least two viable options. This does not mean that if you have two viable options the decisions is interesting but that if you don't the decision can not be interesting.

What makes an option potentially viable ? It has to be as good or better as any other option in at least one situation from a certain perspective. That perspective is often the "playing to win" mentality, whose primary goal is to win the game (in competitive games).
So how many options need to be viable for a decision to be interesting ? All possible options ? 90% ? 55.58% ? At this point we get into difficult territory. One thing we can say for certain though: If an option is never viable it is redundant and if all options are equally viable in every situation the choice becomes meaningless. If an option fulfills this condition it is not necessarily viable but if it does not fulfill this conditions it can not be viable

Gwent (like almost all games) has several levels of decisions. Before you play a game you choose a faction, then you choose a character, then you choose which units to put in your deck. The top of those levels is the faction choice. Here the answer to question raised above is simpel. Ideally all factions should be equally viable. From here you can go down the chain. It is important to remember that is most useful to compare different options of the same choice since they are in direct competition.

To sum this section up: Balance is about identifying the viability of options. Identifying is the key here. Balance poses problems but does not answer them, that is the job of design as a whole. To clarify this issue think of a game as an equation with many (and I mean many) variables representing all the parts of the game that influence a certain balance issue. When thinking of balance you want the equation to have a certain outcome lets call it: "Balanced". Often when people make suggestions that aim to make a game more balanced they act as if a ton of those variables are constants and their suggestion is the only way to achieve the wanted outcome. The assumed constants however are in fact variables and worse they also represent parts of the game that influence other important aspects of the game (such as "Thematic" or even the most important of them all "Fun"). Balance is a condition that is necessary (to some degree) but not sueffecient for a good game.






Side notes:

Leader Cards - Different Leader Cards of the same faction are comparable with the metrics described above. The usefulness of Comparing Leader of different Factions should be fairly limited since the viability of a Leader is in general closely tied to its faction. Or in other words: Comparing Leaders of different Factions is not useful because they are not options for the same choice. (see the Balance section of this post for further eplanation).


 
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Very nice post , sir ! :)
What you're discussing here is a general view of the mechanics of the game. As I am familiar with Hearthstone , I can say this post is very valuable to the community.

Your view is so detailed , bringing so many explanations to 'how the game works' that I can't help but love it.

If you look a few threads back from this one , you'll notice my post , which is ( although wrongfully ) called Northern Realms Weather-Control Deck ( As it isn't a deck. it's just a guide to playing that role ). Link here.

While you took initiative to define the very basic terms of the game, I made a more specific , narrower also ( as I talk about a specific build only , while yours is general ) explanation of my ideas for strategies. It's something similar to the guy that came up with a Mill Rouge , Control Warrior , Aggro Druid , etc. on Hearthstone. Before I made that post , I should've thought about what you said here. Although I take into consideration many aspects of the game, having a criteria for rating a card is crucial to Deck Building.

Now , besides thanking you for this post , I'll ask for permission to use exactly the information you have here ( mentioning you , of course ) when updating or uploading new "decks" ( again , I'm just trying to come up with useful roles , we don't have all the cards yet , so we can't make a deck ).
 
I haven't come-up with a proper format to put my ideas in, but two things, which are also important in other CCG's, though perhaps more so in Gwent, are worth mentioning here.

Card Flexibility

Most obviously, cards which give you a choice, have more inherent flexibility than those who don't. Another part of this is though, how well can a card adapt to any given match-up or board situation (some cards like Geralt: Igni and Ocvist for instance require your opponent to have >15 Melee Strength to be fully effective).
Some cards also need more support cards to become good (think of all the encourage cards, which need other cards on the board before they reach their full potential).

Interesting in this respect is that often cards will conflict themselves on different aspects within the broader topic of flexibility. For instance Medics provide excellent flexibility when you have a full Graveyard to choose from, but until that graveyard is full they are extremely restricted in their use.

Card Selection

Card selection has always been an extremely powerful tool in CCG's and for Gwent it is no different. It might be even more powerful in Gwent than in other games because whereas in more traditional CCG's card selection is priced by taxing your resources and thus allowing your opponent to pressure you more, there is no effective pressure your opponent can mount in Gwent if you decide to take a turn off for card selection.
Dijkstra is naturally a prime example of a card which gives you card selection, but more subtle card selection can come from Muster units which thin your deck.
Deck thinning in turn has a noticeable impact on the ability of Dijkstra to find the right card.
However Muster units also come with a negative side in relation to card selection, which is the Mulligan phase as well as the draw throughout the game.
Cards like Foglets or double copies of Ancient Foglets represent dead cards in your hand, cards which have to be mulliganed and thus hurt your card selection for your starting hand.
A card like Reaver Scout does in a way help card selection, as it increases your chances of finding the card you want, albeit it in an extremely inflexible way.
 
Like many (if not all) of the people on this forum I am super excited for Gwent. I love collectible card games and I sunk 150+ hours into the Witcher 3 (a decent amount of which was playing Gwent). The problem is that while we know a lot about the game already we can't play it yet. We don't all the cards so we can't really talk about balance. Since we can't play the cards/factions we don't know what the experience of playing them will be like and if it matches our expectations. In short: we can only speculate. That can be fun, but to me it is boring and unproductive (if it is not for, good for you!). So I thought I would propose a project to shorten the wait while doing something useful in preperation for the BETA: developing concepts for card evaluation.

Hi buddy,

1. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. My thoughts, at first it looks like a lot of text. imo of course. :) More formatting with a point like structure might be better.

2. Yes, I agree not to speculate and welcome your card evaluation. :)

3. I don't know much about this game, If I have some ideas, I will share them.

4. One thing I hope for is that the developers don't put in cards like 'Yogg Saron' in this game ie don't allow a card to break the game with too much rng
http://www.hearthpwn.com/cards/33168-yogg-saron-hopes-end
 
Anyone feel free to reference this thread when talking about balance, strategy and design topics. Eventually I hope this can grow into a community resource that can provide a solid base for good balance and discussion.

Card Flexibility is indeed an important factor when considering card quality. It is important to ask: "How does card flexibility actually affect the value of a card?" Traditionally having flexibilty makes increases the amount of situations that a card is good in. It makes the card less context dependent which I would describe as decreasing the variance of strength differential by lifting the floor of the card.

Still I think it is worth adding a subsection about card flexibility and make Variance its own section.

My break is over, will check back later.
 
Good post, explains some of the basics of card evaluation quite well. Especially the second point about turn cost is often overlooked and something I've been writing a lot about. Some more common terminology off the top of my head that is being used in card analysis/speculation atm is:

Stall cards - this is what you call "Turn Cost 0" - cards that replace themselves and don't reduce your hand size

Last Card Advantage - this is the main reason you want stalling cards, since getting in the final cards of the game allow you to play things unopposed, and prevents your opponent from doing the same.

Dead Cards: This is a card that gives you nothing. Examples are foglets (since they will get summoned from fog anyway) or extra cards from musters. I think you should probably split these into two kinds - the ones that you at least get to play and the ones that will get played for your. Foglets you at least get to play, as long as you do it before the fog. Extra muster cards will get played for you, thus giving away card advantage. How often a card will be dead can be very important when evaluating it.

Deck thinning: These are cards that pull from your deck, increasing your chances of drawing better cards from spies or other effects. Musters are the most common form of thinning, but cards like Reaver Scout belong here as well.

Beyond this there are some more advanced concepts, like looking at cards alone/in a group, or replacing strength comparisons with comparing the response they force out of your opponent, but they are probably not fit for a forum post :)
 
Something else that would be useful for looking at how to properly evaluate a card is to compare strength differentials. If a card has a strength differential of +6, we should know where that falls in line compared to other cards; especially other cards of their type (unit, character, hero). We see that, so far, 12 Strength seems to be the top of the line for a single character card with no abilities. 8 strength seems to be the typical high end for a unit card, and 15 for a hero (all no text, base strength cards).

So, when we look at a card, we can say where it compares with the normal, high-end, no ability, strength of a similar card in its grouping. I think a good example is Gaunter O'Dimm, a card people seem not terribly enthused about. Gaunter has a total strength of 10, which is 2 below what a single, no ability character card can achieve (12, Fiend). However, Gaunter has abilities, so we expect his strength to be less, otherwise he would simply be a better card if he provided 12 strength or more. Now, a lot of character cards with abilities have strength 8 or less, so Gaunter actually sits relatively high on the curve. He doesn't compare favorably to some of the muster character cards (Three witches, Olaf), but Muster has an inherent downside and can be treated as a separate grouping of cards.

So, Gaunter lacks slightly in total strength differential, but he does have some abilities to mitigate that. Firstly, if he is decoyed and played again, the units he spawned stick around and then he spawns them again, making his new strength differential 16, which is above the curve on a single character card (and even a Hero card). It takes an extra card, but that is a Decoy, which is a -0 turn card. Gaunter is also self protective; if a Fiend is scorched, all 12 strength goes away. If Gaunter is alone on the battlefield and scorched, he still leaves behind 6 power.

There is more nuance to the above as well, but that gives a decent summary, I think, of how we can use strength differential to compare cards. When we know that the Gwent team trends towards certain power levels for certain groupings, we can compare them within the group (as opposed to comparing character to cards to Hero cards, which can be counter productive).
 

Dead Cards:
This is a card that gives you nothing. Examples are foglets (since they will get summoned from fog anyway) or extra cards from musters. I think you should probably split these into two kinds - the ones that you at least get to play and the ones that will get played for your. Foglets you at least get to play, as long as you do it before the fog. Extra muster cards will get played for you, thus giving away card advantage. How often a card will be dead can be very important when evaluating it.

Deck thinning: These are cards that pull from your deck, increasing your chances of drawing better cards from spies or other effects. Musters are the most common form of thinning, but cards like Reaver Scout belong here as well.

I would be careful when talking about dead cards. In other ccg the term refers to cards that you either can not play (rules, lack of resource) or will not help you in winning the game. A Foglet is not in itself a dead card it is still a unit with strength. That is probably not very good but it likely will not be actively bring you closer to losingthe game (like for instance scorching your own unit(s) would).

Deck thinning and card selection (mentioned above) are indeed interesting concepts for Gwent, I am not quite sure yet how to present them in adequeatly for Gwent. The whole is thing is still very much WIP.

Something else that would be useful for looking at how to properly evaluate a card is to compare strength differentials. If a card has a strength differential of +6, we should know where that falls in line compared to other cards; especially other cards of their type (unit, character, hero). We see that, so far, 12 Strength seems to be the top of the line for a single character card with no abilities. 8 strength seems to be the typical high end for a unit card, and 15 for a hero (all no text, base strength cards).

So, when we look at a card, we can say where it compares with the normal, high-end, no ability, strength of a similar card in its grouping. I think a good example is Gaunter O'Dimm, a card people seem not terribly enthused about. Gaunter has a total strength of 10, which is 2 below what a single, no ability character card can achieve (12, Fiend). However, Gaunter has abilities, so we expect his strength to be less, otherwise he would simply be a better card if he provided 12 strength or more. Now, a lot of character cards with abilities have strength 8 or less, so Gaunter actually sits relatively high on the curve. He doesn't compare favorably to some of the muster character cards (Three witches, Olaf), but Muster has an inherent downside and can be treated as a separate grouping of cards.

So, Gaunter lacks slightly in total strength differential, but he does have some abilities to mitigate that. Firstly, if he is decoyed and played again, the units he spawned stick around and then he spawns them again, making his new strength differential 16, which is above the curve on a single character card (and even a Hero card). It takes an extra card, but that is a Decoy, which is a -0 turn card. Gaunter is also self protective; if a Fiend is scorched, all 12 strength goes away. If Gaunter is alone on the battlefield and scorched, he still leaves behind 6 power.

There is more nuance to the above as well, but that gives a decent summary, I think, of how we can use strength differential to compare cards. When we know that the Gwent team trends towards certain power levels for certain groupings, we can compare them within the group (as opposed to comparing character to cards to Hero cards, which can be counter productive).

I am not quite familiar enough with the new rules concerning deck restrictions to make very precise statements concerning the usefulness of comparing certain types of cards to others. A general attempt has been made in the newly added Basics of Balance section.
 
Before you play a game you choose a faction, then you choose a character...
You might want to change "character" to "leader" because character is a specific card type in Gwent, even the rest of your typos won't be as misleading. ;D

Here is a video I really enjoyed watching about balance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e31OSVZF77w
EC videos can be so overrated. They may be eye-opening to novices but a lot of them have misinformation or neglect to tell the whole story because of bias or simply lack of understanding. What is most interesting is how there are multiple posts all over Reddit and other forums pointing out their flaws, yet not so much on their YT comments. Go figure...
 
totally agree, I think longterm the stuff coming out of EC is pretty damaging. Hopefully it's not taken too seriously smh
 
You might want to change "character" to "leader" because character is a specific card type in Gwent, even the rest of your typos won't be as misleading. ;D


EC videos can be so overrated. They may be eye-opening to novices but a lot of them have misinformation or neglect to tell the whole story because of bias or simply lack of understanding. What is most interesting is how there are multiple posts all over Reddit and other forums pointing out their flaws, yet not so much on their YT comments. Go figure...

Will change it as soon as I have the time. Sorry about the typos. Will check the whole things for grammar and typos, again, as soon as I have the time :).

totally agree, I think longterm the stuff coming out of EC is pretty damaging. Hopefully it's not taken too seriously smh

I think EC is acually pretty good. The video explains some pretty interesting concepts but uses the "wrong" terminology (which as you point out can be harmful for discussion).
 
Will change it as soon as I have the time. Sorry about the typos. Will check the whole things for grammar and typos, again, as soon as I have the time :).
No pressure! But if this is going to be the thread for theorycrafting, you got to make it look good. :cool:
 
Beyond this there are some more advanced concepts, like looking at cards alone/in a group, or replacing strength comparisons with comparing the response they force out of your opponent, but they are probably not fit for a forum post :)

Expanding on aroundofgwent's point, another useful metric to evaluate a card is how well it combines / synergize with another card or even an entire deck archetype. There are many other factors that affect this such as flexibility, ease of execution, reliability, consistency and how easy it is for the enemy to counter it but I'll keep it simple for now.

Take the most powerful 2 card combo revealed so far, Blue Stripes Commando + Foltest for an example. Alone, the BSC provides +8 equally spread across 2 cards. Use Foltest on it and it becomes +64 equally spread across 4 cards (which has a major drawback of being easily countered by scorch). That is a strength differential of 56. This could be written like (BSC w/ Foltest = 56) with the number 56 indicating the strength boost to the BSC when combining with Foltest.

Now compare it with another Northern Realms melee troop card, the Temerian Foot Soldier. Alone it gives +4 and Foltest gives it an additional 12 str (TFS w/ Foltest = 12). This is nowhere near the synergy of BSC + Foltest. To even come close to +64, this combo requires another TFS for +48. But then it requries you to play another TFS which has drawbacks such as having to draw 2 TFSs in your starting hand, which is more unlikely than drawing one BSC, and an opportunity cost of 1 card.

Clearly the BSC is far superior to the TFS when running Foltest as your leader card so the decision between them is a no-brainer.
 
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