Baldur's Gate 3 is certainly on my list, but I consider it a CRPG in the vein of BG 1 and 2, or Divinity OS2, or Pillars of Eternity. So I didn't include it here; these are mostly the "AAA" style RPGs that have managed to catch my interest. There are TONS of CRPG-style games that I've not mentioned, including that hardboiled cop one that keeps changing its name (but was once no x for the furies or something).With Cyberpunk and The Outer Worlds, my guess is that the logic went "futuristic, therefore guns, therefore FPP." Plus the latter is clearly in the mold of New Vegas, while the former is at least partially inspired by Deus Ex. Bloodlines 2 devs have called it an immersive sim, so they were probably taking cues from Dishonored. Greedfall, on the other hand, is clearly trying to emulate the Bioware experience circa 2010, so third person makes sense for them.
Incidentally, it's too bad that TOW is a 2020 release for me. I would have considered it for an end of the year purchase otherwise, despite a disappointing history with Obsidian. No room for Baldur's Gate 3 on your list? I didn't care for the originals and wish there was more information out about it, but I loved the D:OS games and I'm intrigued to see what Larian does with 5th edition rules.
It seems paradoxical that in the AAA scene third or first person is essential for RPGs, but MOBA's are still ridiculously popular. Maybe the average gamer prefers story-driven releases to be as movie-like as possible.
You make a good point about each devs' likely reasoning, though. It seems like it's a case of "this is what's worked in the past, makes sense to do it here." And I'm not saying it's the wrong choice, its' just interesting that so many of these bigger games are going that route.