How much money would you have to spend on kegs to get a full set of cards?

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I'm talking about statistical probability here. In other words, what is the minimum amount of real world money that you would need to spend on buying kegs to get the full set of cards for either a faction or all factions?

Being a cynic, I think that there would be cards which are just not going to come your way. In other words, trying to get the full set would be a money pit...and it's not even likely to work.
 
So, what are you trying to say? Of course it would be extremly expansive like in any other ccc as well. In Gwent it would probably still be cheaper than in Magic or Hearthstone. But what would be the point of that anyway?
 
I bought around 60 kegs in beta plus premium bundle/preorder for every expansion. At this point i have all the cards and enough scraps to craft the next 3 expansions. Everything i bought should equal to 50k+ scraps.
So it is possible to get every single card without buying anything, all you need is time and effort.
 
I have a complete premium collection (only the 17 most rarely used trash gold cards are missing). I bought the Thronebreaker, starter set with premium gold card, and some dust on 50% sale but not too much
 
I'm talking about statistical probability here. In other words, what is the minimum amount of real world money that you would need to spend on buying kegs to get the full set of cards for either a faction or all factions?

Being a cynic, I think that there would be cards which are just not going to come your way. In other words, trying to get the full set would be a money pit...and it's not even likely to work.

I'm not sure if I should say this out loud. But I've spent no money on Gwent, and my collection is full for both Nilfgaard and Northern Realms. I'm now building my Skellige collection. I have all the most important "neutral" cards as well.

Just from kegs in general, I have alot of the basic collection from Monsters, Scoia'Tael and Syndicate as well. So whenever I'm going to start on those, I will have a pretty good start.

That's just to say, it's possible to build a "full" (faction and all faction) collection without spending money at all.

I'm not a big player and I haven't really played alot, maybe just slightly above average.
 
I'm not sure if I should say this out loud. But I've spent no money on Gwent, and my collection is full for both Nilfgaard and Northern Realms. I'm now building my Skellige collection. I have all the most important "neutral" cards as well.

Just from kegs in general, I have alot of the basic collection from Monsters, Scoia'Tael and Syndicate as well. So whenever I'm going to start on those, I will have a pretty good start.

That's just to say, it's possible to build a "full" (faction and all faction) collection without spending money at all.

I'm not a big player and I haven't really played alot, maybe just slightly above average.

I'm just replying to this particular post because I get the impression that if I replied to my own, it will get merged with my original post, which isn't what I want to happen.

I'm really after a mathematical answer to my question. Treat it as a genuine question, which it is, not an opportunity to praise the ability for GWENT players to collect an impressive set of cards paying no money at all.

Does anyone know the maths to work out the answer to my question (or explain why it can't be analysed in that way)?

Again, being cynical, I think that if there is a mathematical answer to my question, that would hold only in theory, not in practice, as my cynical comment in my OP suggested.
 

DRK3

Forum veteran
A few years ago there were a few users here in this forum that did some awesome work with statistics and calculated stuff like that, the drop rates, the time or money that it would take to get a full collection, etc.

Unfortunately, i think they are no longer here.
 
Hi, I just registered to answer this question in terms of the amount of kegs.

The TLDR you will need 1822 kegs, where 78% of the Legendary cards come from scraps.

The full detail calculation assumes the following:
+ The calculation is for the current available cards, expecting starter sets and Thronebreaker cards.
+ All bronzes are already acquired, same for Epic cards.
+ The worst legendary drop rate in a keg is one every 40 (this has been stated previously in this forum).
+ A Legendary card is crafted with 800 scraps, there are currently 205 legendaries.
+ The player is Prestige 1 (easy to achieve), thus the average keg will yield 70 scraps.
+ Probability of repeated cards is not taken into account.

The calculation with this assumptions gives 1822 kegs, no scraps are used, then 8200 kegs. That is, 78% of legendaries have to be crafted (through scraps)
Remember this calculation is on average, I would add 200 kegs to get 2x of all bronzes.

For me there are two key messages: about 3/4 of the legendary collection will come from crafting, and even if 1822 kegs sound much ... I was expecting far more ;)
 

DRK3

Forum veteran
I have a full collection, and although i am not a proper study case, since i already had tons of resources from the betas and didnt start HC from scratch, i still think those numbers might be a bit off, 1822 kegs seems too much, maybe they didnt take into account lots of additional variables (like the effect of reward points)

What i do know for sure, is the best strategy to get a full collection is to ONLY craft legendaries, crafting epics might be enticing, but their drop rate is quite higher than legendaries and you'll end up getting them on kegs before you get all the legendaries. Also, never mill any cards unless their dupes.

This is for players whose main goal is to complete the collection, if you prefer to get the cards that are in meta so you are competitive, feel free, just dont complain afterwards that its taking too long to get all cards when you deliberately took steps back regarding that goal.
 
Hi, I just registered to answer this question in terms of the amount of kegs.

The TLDR you will need 1822 kegs, where 78% of the Legendary cards come from scraps.

The full detail calculation assumes the following:
+ The calculation is for the current available cards, expecting starter sets and Thronebreaker cards.
+ All bronzes are already acquired, same for Epic cards.
+ The worst legendary drop rate in a keg is one every 40 (this has been stated previously in this forum).
+ A Legendary card is crafted with 800 scraps, there are currently 205 legendaries.
+ The player is Prestige 1 (easy to achieve), thus the average keg will yield 70 scraps.
+ Probability of repeated cards is not taken into account.

The calculation with this assumptions gives 1822 kegs, no scraps are used, then 8200 kegs. That is, 78% of legendaries have to be crafted (through scraps)
Remember this calculation is on average, I would add 200 kegs to get 2x of all bronzes.

For me there are two key messages: about 3/4 of the legendary collection will come from crafting, and even if 1822 kegs sound much ... I was expecting far more ;)

Thanks for that. So how much would that cost on a per keg basis or some other, more optimal way of getting kegs? Are you including the Syn Fact?

re: "Probability of repeated cards is not taken into account".

Well, I'd say that my cynicism about this approach would be to take it into account! I 'bought' 7 Syn kegs today and I got loads of Crime Cut Ups cards. Only one keg produced any cards which I didn't have, and I think that they were all in the padlocked section!

Would your calculation be a minimum figure to acquire the entire set? Like I said, if that is right, then I would expect you to spend multiple times the amount on kegs that theory would suggest that you should.

The fact that you assume the player has Prestige 1 is a complicating factor. I have this status myself and might be closing in on my 2nd Prestige, if I'm not mistaken. Which I could be. Ideally, a 'pure' theory to answer my question would assume that the player is just starting out. Someone with Prestige 1 would, I'm guessing, have about 1/2 of the base set of cards already, which, iirc, I have.

I'm not even sure what Legendaries and Epics are. Maybe in MTG it was clearer, when I played it a few years ago.

Can you make your working out more transparent, so that people can see how your figures are generated?

Maybe you need to edit your comment that: "The calculation is for the current available cards, expecting starter sets and Thronebreaker cards" to make "expecting" > "excepting"?

GWENT The Cardgame is the first Witcher related game I've played, so I didn't get to play it in W3 anyway. Maybe if it's heavily discounted I'll get TB, if I remembering the name of that story-based module correct.

Anyway, thanks for playing! P.S. what Level and Rank are you? I'm 13 and 53...I think. Something like that. And I get both of them mixed up in any case! I'm assuming that the more you rank up and level up, the more you want to know about this kind of stuff?

P.S. to put my cynicism at its bluntest, I'd day that my suspicion is that the game isn't really random about what cards it drops. It's like any commercial, collectable set of things...the supply is limited to get you to buy more of the product for the 'chance' to get something that you don't have.
 
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