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Kegs Drop-rate Analysis (Premium, Silver, Gold)

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4RM3D

Moderator
Rawls;n10219662 said:
I assume you drew it in the first four? If so, NICE.
Yeah, surprisingly one I didn't have yet and ironically one of the premium choices later on.
 

Mancoon1980

Junior Member
Hey kingoko I feel your pain during the mid winter update I got 1 gold out of 115 kegs. The first keg was gold and it was a duplicate of the shupe I crafted earlier. Then went on the longest gold less run in history. After that I've had pretty decent luck though 5 gold out of last 15 kegs. Opened 5 of my reward kegs so far and got a gold so far.
 

Makhil

Poser
30 kegs, 4 gold, 4 silvers... 30 premiums, thanks for that. Still some premiums don't have animation.
 

DRK3

Junior Member
I had 20 Kegs from the rewards to open - 0 Legendaries (although on one i got 3 Epics, including 2 of the same, Standard and Premium)

Then i earned a Keg through daily rewards - BAM Legendary Adda! (shame i already had crafted Adda, but you dont say no to that sexy thing...)
 

Skeeve_

Junior Member
I opened 18 packs and NOT ONE SILVER or GOLD - very unhappy - usually in 18 you would get 4-5 silver and 1 Gold...bout ZERO of both...that isnt right
 

Rawls

Moderator
Got one premium gold and three premium silvers from my season reward kegs. I'll take it.
 

Muffliato

Moderator
Opened my 13 season end kegs:

- 3 premium Golds, of which one was Filavandrel
- 1 premium Silver, 1 normal Silver
 
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TheShift

Poser
4RM3D;n10219642 said:
21 kegs

1 Premium Gold and 1 normal Gold
1 Premium Silver and 2 normal silvers

Not bad.
Funny I got the exact same thing.. I got a normal gold caretaker in the first 4 (even though I've had him for over a year lol)
 

NlelithZ44

Poser
20 Kegs

6x Silver Premium (Including Ves, Johnny & Parasite, which may be not the best cards right now, but awesome Premiums nonetheless)
1x Gold Premuim (The choice was between Keira; Eskel & Letho. That's a lot of witchers, if you count Lambert in Keira's background. I chose Letho, just because I didn't have him and maaaybe CRPR will change him to something more consistent)
3x Silver Standard

So basically every second keg had one regular Silver card or better.
 
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Kingoko

Junior Member
Kingoko;n10218122 said:
So opened 34 kegs and now 3 won today from daily and rank up. It's total 37 (2 or 3 of them was deleated from my account cause of that bug - i hope support will refund that). Before today patch i had like 15-20 kegs opened w/o legendary. So my streak is 50-55 kegs opened without even 1 legendary card. That some ridicoulus shit. I was always so unlucky with kegs (1 legend every 30/40 legs) so i had hopes maybe finally today when that cool premium promotion and finally i will get maybe some luck.
Imagine my disapointment :(
Another 4 kegs opened, no legendary still, nice streak. Oh and not even epic as well cause why not.
Also i counted my premium epics won so far and it's 6 in last 41 kegs. Why it happen to me every time. Since open beta (in closed it was better) i got so extreme low legends ratio that even probabilitys can't explain that. Having such "luck" is even less probable then buying struck by lightining IRL 5 times same year. I need to do something wrong but how.
 

Bondonkadonk

Poser
Kingoko;n10228122 said:
Another 4 kegs opened, no legendary still, nice streak. Oh and not even epic as well cause why not.
Also i counted my premium epics won so far and it's 6 in last 41 kegs. Why it happen to me every time. Since open beta (in closed it was better) i got so extreme low legends ratio that even probabilitys can't explain that. Having such "luck" is even less probable then buying struck by lightining IRL 5 times same year. I need to do something wrong but how.
Probability CAN explain it though. And I highly doubt the probability of you not getting a gold is the same as being struck by lightning 5 times. The probability of being struck ONCE by lightning in a year is 1/700,000. The probability of getting a gold in a keg appears to be somewhere between 1/20 and 1/30. I'm seeing a rather big difference here. If you buy 700,000 kegs and still don't get a gold, then yes, I'd be more inclined to agree with your lightning statement.

If you genuinely believe there's something wrong with your account, then contact CDPR via their report system and discuss with them how you've not received a gold in x amount of kegs.

Thing is, I'm not sure how their algorithms work, but if it's anything like dice rolling then I'm afraid the concept of "i've opened 20, I should have a gold now" doesn't actually work.

Yes, your luck sucks if you have honestly opened 50 kegs on the same account and not received a single gold from it, but it's not impossible that it could happen. Might be worth you starting to keep a written log of what you win. Personally I have save file on my laptop that has the amount of kegs I've opened, along with the amount of common, rares, epics and legendaries i've received (plus I also keep note of how often I get premiums and what rarity they are, not including this premium weekend) That way you can definitively see your over all earning of each rarity, plus if you do take the issue to cdpr, you have some level of written evidence to back your claim.
 

Kingoko

Junior Member
Bondonkadonk;n10228152 said:
Probability CAN explain it though. And I highly doubt the probability of you not getting a gold is the same as being struck by lightning 5 times. The probability of being struck ONCE by lightning in a year is 1/700,000. The probability of getting a gold in a keg appears to be somewhere between 1/20 and 1/30. I'm seeing a rather big difference here. If you buy 700,000 kegs and still don't get a gold, then yes, I'd be more inclined to agree with your lightning statement.
You got it wrong. I'm not tellin to never ever get a gold from all my kegs. Still it will be long route to 700.000.
But. The ratio of getting gold being 1/20. Every time game rolling probability for me it's below regular luck. Multiple that situation by so many bad lucks and you will get a view. For example let's roll dice. Getting 6 on dice let's consider bad. In your case i rolled bad 700.000 times in row witch is bad reasonig cause sometimes i get a legendary card. In my case i get that bad 6 let's say 50 times. Probability of getting 50 times in row 6 on dice is lower then getting hit by lightning. It's hard to explain it in english when im not anglophone. Anyway it's just an example.

I tough in past that i very often just hit pity timer or whatever it's called. But now i'm sure such thing don't even exist.

I'm a bit salty cause the whole cards rollin in kegs are totally wrong. There should be some counter that check how often you pull an epic or gold. For example if to get gold its 5% chance, if you don't grab it then next keg you got for example 5.5% then 6% then 6,5% or so until you get gold and that number go to 5% again and so on. Still there will be lucky players and less lucky but that disproportion will be not so huge.
Compare this for example :
Was watching today AgraveiN on stream, he had very lucky opening. From around 33 kegs he get 5 legends and a lot of epics but let's focus on gold only. So
His 33 kegs - 5 legends
Mine 50 kegs - 0 legends
I don't even dream to get as good roll as him but why i couldn't get at least one or two legends from bigger kegs pool. It only shows that something is wrong. And now cause that premium promotion is very cool for me as collector if i had droped like 2 golds i would definitlly buy some kegs. But in that case, no way. I'm spending regularry a lot of money on games so that's no problem but now i will not only save cash but what's most important i will save myself frustration and disapointment.


 

DRK3

Junior Member
Well, just got my 2nd Premium Gold Lady - this time the choice was between Triss: Butterfly Spell and Keira (already had both Standard)... what a dilemma, brought memories from Witcher 3... Ended up going with my gal, Triss, that card is damn beautiful.

Hope ill get a 3rd Premium Gold this weekend, wont stop playing till then.