Leader Ability play rates and win rates in Season of the Bear and Season of the Viper

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Can we all agree (based on the presented data) that Carapace should get a third charge or another significant buff ?

It was surprising to see that ability played 22% of the time by beginners - then almost completely abandoned by Pro Rank.
 
If the strongest ST deck is harmony, and all Invigorate players play harmony decks. Does it mean that the leader choice carries harmony decks by nominal percentage increase of 25% or roughly 83% increase from the base percentage of 30% of Invigorate.
Now this might seem a bit extreme, as we dont know the playrate of harmony decks by Invigorate players. Taking into account that Call of harmony is at 42% win rate, it doesen't seem like a surprise at all that Invigorate win rate is at 30%. Call of Harmony is more flexible as it allows you to play 2 cards at once, and therefor offer the same degree of engine protection as Invigorate while producing roughly the same number of points. And therefor better than Invigorate (due to flexibility Invigorate doesen't have).

Is this a good design ? Should we have all leaders on par with ME, or should OP leaders like ME be toned down such that they dont have a significant impact on winrate ?
 
Frankly Imo playrate is more important stat than winrate, playrate shows with factions are dominant due to powerful cards in they arsenal ( winrate is usefull to show with decks/interactions between some particular cards are OP )

Ok then - Scoiatael and Skellige beats the rest in playrate. The most annoying leaders anyway - Echo, Deadeye, Ursine, Second Wind.
In rank, where real skill counts anyway - 1-7 and pro rank.
 
Ok then - Scoiatael and Skellige beats the rest in playrate. The most annoying leaders anyway - Echo, Deadeye, Ursine, Second Wind.
In rank, where real skill counts anyway - 1-7 and pro rank.

Hi.

I think you meant "winrate" XD
 
Hi.

I think you meant "winrate" XD
So both then. Read the damned data:
Echo - 6,54 ; 7,07
Deadeye - 5,01 ; 4,92
Ursine - 6,71 ; 8,63
Second - 6,59 ; 8,74

Imperial - 6,24 ; 8,53
as second best NG skill is inconsistent - Imposter has only 48% winrate, and Lockdown 49%

Skellige comes first with cumulative score, ST second, NG third, but with high randomness.

NR is dominated by Uprising.

EDIT, I suppose I know, where all this whining about Nilfgaard comes from - at rank 14-08 NG leaders are above 25% playrate, but still it`s winrate is quite terrible - Imperial is barely 4, almost ex aequo with Ursine(5) and Second wind (3). ST dominates with precision strike at 7 and Echo and Ambush at 1 and 2
 
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So both then. Read the damned data:
Echo - 6,54 ; 7,07
Deadeye - 5,01 ; 4,92
Ursine - 6,71 ; 8,63
Second - 6,59 ; 8,74

Imperial - 6,24 ; 8,53
as second best NG skill is inconsistent - Imposter has only 48% winrate, and Lockdown 49%

Skellige comes first with cumulative score, ST second, NG third, but with high randomness.

NR is dominated by Uprising.

EDIT, I suppose I know, where all this whining about Nilfgaard comes from - at rank 14-08 NG leaders are above 25% playrate, but still it`s winrate is quite terrible - Imperial is barely 4, almost ex aequo with Ursine(5) and Second wind (3). ST dominates with precision strike at 7 and Echo and Ambush at 1 and 2


Actually, I misread your post.

Didn't notice you were talking about factions as a whole and not just leader abilities. My mistake.

Dunno about the whining. As long as it is contained within rant threads, who cares? XD
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To make up for my mistake, I arranged the information by faction. At the end, I averaged the winrate and added the playrate

RANK 1 - 7
Mystic Echo57.956.54
Deadeye Ambush57.315.01
Guerilla Tactics41.751.69
Precision Strike51.041.17
Mahakam Forge45.131.5
Call of Harmony43.440.44
Invigorate330.23
47.0916.58


Ursine Ritual56.366.71
Second Wind51.86.59
Blaze of Glory49.281.67
Patricidal Fury48.251.28
Sacraficial Vanguard43.660.73
Reckless Fury47.70.7
Onslaught43.860.63
48.7018.31

Death's Shadow48.994.82
Overwhelming Hunger46.23.98
Blood Scent53.182.55
Arachas Swarm51.872.28
Fruits of Ysgith50.911.31
Force of Nature41.420.41
Carapace39.670.54
47.4615.89

Uprising52.466.95
Mobilization49.282.44
Pincer Maneuver45.831.91
Vicious Slash47.861.34
Inspired Zeal44.351.13
Royal Inspiration42.940.84
Stockpile39.970.52
46.1015.13

Congregate52.372.47
Hidden Cache45.071.82
Blood Money50.091.22
Off the Books44.540.67
Wild Card460.59
Jackpot46.360.33
Lined Pockets38.660.3
46.167.4

Imposter48.556.4
Imperial Formation51.456.24
Lockdown48.024.7
Tactical Decision49.192.77
Enslave49.512.72
Strategic Withdrawal36.862.14
Doulbe Cross38.691.72
46.0426.69

If we were to compare tanking into account playrate first, this would be the result

nilfgaard46.0426.69
skellige48.7018.31
scoia'tael47.0916.58
Monsters47.4615.89
Northern Realms46.1015.13
Syndicate46.167.4
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As for Pro Rank, I'll just paste it all in a single spoiler because I'm lazy. XD
scoia'tael
Mystic Echo55.517.07
Deadeye Ambush54.74.92
Precision Strike50.181.56
Mahakam Forge45.091.29
Guerilla Tactics39.810.96
Call of Harmony42.890.32
Invigorate30.890.06
45.616.18
Skellige
Ursine Ritual52.518.63
Second Wind50.78.74
Blaze of Glory46.181.33
Sacraficial Vanguard42.550.82
Patricidal Fury48.280.68
Onslaught45.350.37
Reckless Fury46.550.24
47.4520.81
Monsters
Blood Scent54.224.07
Death's Shadow49.123.71
Arachas Swarm49.893.43
Overwhelming Hunger48.333.16
Fruits of Ysgith48.630.91
Carapace39.310.28
Force of Nature41.420.19
47.2715.75
Syndicate
Congregate49.524.01
Blood Money49.462.85
Wild Card47.51.74
Hidden Cache44.080.78
Off the Books42.820.68
Jackpot50.520.64
Lined Pockets39.680.19
46.2310.89
Nilfgaard
Imperial Formation51.878.53
Lockdown49.574.16
Tactical Decision49.12.59
Imposter45.142.47
Enslave48.332.16
Strategic Withdrawal35.961.22
Doulbe Cross39.370.95
45.6222.08
Northern Realms
Uprising51.687.82
Mobilization47.973.1
Pincer Maneuver46.031.09
Vicious Slash48.870.88
Inspired Zeal43.40.87
Royal Inspiration43.990.36
Stockpile40.410.16
46.0514.28


The results would be as follows.

Nilfgaard45.6222.08
Skellige47.4520.81
scoia'tael45.616.18
Monsters47.2715.75
Northern Realms46.0514.28
Syndicate46.2310.89


As we can see, Nilfgaard is the most played faction in both instances (Pro Rank and Rank 1-7) folllowed by Skellige and Scoia'tael.

On the other hand, Syndicate and Northern Realms are the least favoured factions both in Pro rank and 1-7.

It's quite intriguing.

Nilfgaard is the most played faction, but doesn't have the best winrate. Also, it has its playrate distributed on all its leaders, while Skellige, for example, is mostly carried by 2 leaders.
 
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To make up for my mistake, I arranged the information by faction. At the end, I averaged the winrate and added the playrate

Just makes sure you take weight the win rates by their playrates, this has more informational value than taking the average of winrates, as the players are not equally represented by winrates alone.


scoia'taelwin rateplay rate
Mystic Echo55.517.07
Deadeye Ambush54.704.92
Precision Strike50.181.56
Mahakam Forge45.091.29
Guerilla Tactics39.810.96
Call of Harmony42.890.32
Invigorate30.890.06
Weighted average52.6516.18
Skelligewin rateplay rate
Ursine Ritual52.518.63
Second Wind50.708.74
Blaze of Glory46.181.33
Sacraficial Vanguard42.550.82
Patricidal Fury48.280.68
Onslaught45.350.37
Reckless Fury46.550.24
Weighted average50.6220.81
Monsterswin rateplay rate
Blood Scent54.224.07
Death's Shadow49.123.71
Arachas Swarm49.893.43
Overwhelming Hunger48.333.16
Fruits of Ysgith48.630.91
Carapace39.310.28
Force of Nature41.420.19
Weighted average50.1515.75
Syndicatewin rateplay rate
Congregate49.524.01
Blood Money49.462.85
Wild Card47.501.74
Hidden Cache44.080.78
Off the Books42.820.68
Jackpot50.520.64
Lined Pockets39.680.19
48.2610.89
Nilfgaardwin rateplay rate
Imperial Formation51.878.53
Lockdown49.574.16
Tactical Decision49.102.59
Imposter45.142.47
Enslave48.332.16
Strategic Withdrawal35.961.22
Doulbe Cross39.370.95
Weighted average48.6022.08
Northern Realmswin rateplay rate
Uprising51.687.82
Mobilization47.973.10
Pincer Maneuver46.031.09
Vicious Slash48.870.88
Inspired Zeal43.400.87
Royal Inspiration43.990.36
Stockpile40.410.16
Weighted average49.4514.28
win rateplay rate
Nilfgaard48.6022.08
Skellige50.6220.81
scoia'tael52.6516.18
Monsters50.1515.75
Northern Realms49.4514.28
Syndicate48.2610.89
 
Finally someone started to analyzing those stats instead of just looking at winrate, I said that at beginning of this post but people decided to see what they want to see. Now hipoteticaly lets say water of Brokilon and Creys ( sure they will still have X points greatswords swings but whatever ) will disappear from the game, I wander with faction will be most played/dominant and why t?
 
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All this brings more questions than answers. For instance, NG is the most played faction even if it doesn't have the highest winrate.

It also has its play rate distributed along all its leaders, unlike Skellige and Scoia'tael.

Why is it?

Is maybe NG a people's favourite?

Is it better balanced?

Do all its abilites play the same?

Are NG players people who rise to the challenge by playing a subpar faction against the rule of the Squirrel Tyrants and the Skellige Champions?

Is it easy to play, but netdeckers struggle at higher ranks? (I'm reaching here. I didn't quite check the data from lower ranks)

Does it need a bump to have a winrate that does justice to its playrate?
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Just makes sure you take weight the win rates by their playrates, this has more informational value than taking the average of winrates, as the players are not equally represented by winrates alone.


scoia'taelwin rateplay rate
Mystic Echo55.517.07
Deadeye Ambush54.704.92
Precision Strike50.181.56
Mahakam Forge45.091.29
Guerilla Tactics39.810.96
Call of Harmony42.890.32
Invigorate30.890.06
Weighted average52.6516.18
Skelligewin rateplay rate
Ursine Ritual52.518.63
Second Wind50.708.74
Blaze of Glory46.181.33
Sacraficial Vanguard42.550.82
Patricidal Fury48.280.68
Onslaught45.350.37
Reckless Fury46.550.24
Weighted average50.6220.81
Monsterswin rateplay rate
Blood Scent54.224.07
Death's Shadow49.123.71
Arachas Swarm49.893.43
Overwhelming Hunger48.333.16
Fruits of Ysgith48.630.91
Carapace39.310.28
Force of Nature41.420.19
Weighted average50.1515.75
Syndicatewin rateplay rate
Congregate49.524.01
Blood Money49.462.85
Wild Card47.501.74
Hidden Cache44.080.78
Off the Books42.820.68
Jackpot50.520.64
Lined Pockets39.680.19
48.2610.89
Nilfgaardwin rateplay rate
Imperial Formation51.878.53
Lockdown49.574.16
Tactical Decision49.102.59
Imposter45.142.47
Enslave48.332.16
Strategic Withdrawal35.961.22
Doulbe Cross39.370.95
Weighted average48.6022.08
Northern Realmswin rateplay rate
Uprising51.687.82
Mobilization47.973.10
Pincer Maneuver46.031.09
Vicious Slash48.870.88
Inspired Zeal43.400.87
Royal Inspiration43.990.36
Stockpile40.410.16
Weighted average49.4514.28
win rateplay rate
Nilfgaard48.6022.08
Skellige50.6220.81
scoia'tael52.6516.18
Monsters50.1515.75
Northern Realms49.4514.28
Syndicate48.2610.89

Oh. Thank you very much for your input.

Will do!
 
All this brings more questions than answers. For instance, NG is the most played faction even if it doesn't have the highest winrate.

It also has its play rate distributed along all its leaders, unlike Skellige and Scoia'tael.

Why is it?

Is maybe NG a people's favourite?

Is it better balanced?

Do all its abilites play the same?

Are NG players people who rise to the challenge by playing a subpar faction against the rule of the Squirrel Tyrants and the Skellige Champions?

Is it easy to play, but netdeckers struggle at higher ranks? (I'm reaching here. I didn't quite check the data from lower ranks)

Does it need a bump to have a winrate that does justice to its playrate?
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Oh. Thank you very much for your input.

Will do!
I can only speak for myself, but I love Nilfgaard because of the soldiers, the voicelines and the fact that you can interact with the opponent's side of the board incredibly well. This gives you the feeling of being in control. People complaining about the faction just don't like seeing their strategy interrupted I guess. And they can't see that other faction are doing as well or have even better winrates. Cards like Bribery definitely need some balancing, that's for sure. But the complainers haven't yet seen what a true tier 1 Nilfgaard deck looks like, let's see how spies work.
 
But the complainers haven't yet seen what a true tier 1 Nilfgaard deck looks like, let's see how spies work.
I'm afraid some people may disagree with this statement. Especially people that play this game from very beginning. Let me think, from top of my head - viper witcher, slave driver, trial of grasses - that deck was fun, and Nilfgaard spies are nothing new. Frankly I don't remember why devs removed that archetype but I'm quite sure we will find out soon enough.
 
I'm afraid some people may disagree with this statement. Especially people that play this game from very beginning. Let me think, from top of my head - viper witcher, slave driver, trial of grasses - that deck was fun, and Nilfgaard spies are nothing new. Frankly I don't remember why devs removed that archetype but I'm quite sure we will find out soon enough.
I was mostly referring to the last couple of seasons where this faction has always been solid but not exceptionally great as far as I know. I wonder how many rants there will be if NG REALLY becomes the strongest faction in terms of winrates.
 
Think the total may say more than the individual stats. Individualy some play rates are simply too low to make the win rate of any real value. Also the lower ranks (higher numbers) are players that are still figuring things out so...

Anyway, interpreting data aside, can we please have more BUFFS rather than nerfs? And I suggest starting with least played/succesfull faction? Look at all the cards not being used and rework/buff them for example? That way decks stay "intact", not having to be changed every 2 weeks which is annoying, specially for newer players (I guess later on experimenting like that may actually be fun).

For example I have been trying to make a "strong" deck for every faction, but with my lack of time, lack of progress, and therefor lack of resources I have limited cards, and more importantly very limited good cards. Now I had 3-5 pretty good playable decks. But every 2 weeks things get shuffled and changed.

Card power changes aren't that much of an issue, you will notice quickly.
Card ability changes though are pretty annoying (you sometimes change them so drastically they become pretty much useless). Generally though, this also isn't too bad, since you can figure things out quickly and slightly alter the strategy (caranthir was annoying, but I soon noticed the change, and started using him differently with just as much, if not greater success).
HOWEVER, changing provision costs is a real *****, it's driving me literally NUTS. Since today all my decks have a cross, cause provision cost is too high. I feel like I no longer have the energy to waste time on going through them again and again (specially since I think one of your game tips tells us to not leave provision unspent, but am not 100% sure about that one). Anyway going to need to reshuffle 5 decks again, rather than start building some more so I can play with some more diversity, this is really beyond frustrating.

Another thing is that buffing cards, will bring back cards, which have been worked on by you guys, and bring them back to the game (actually being used). Cause currently it feels like they are now being forgotten/banished to the removal corner, cause they might as well be deleted/banished from the game the way they are.

There are tons of them, and rather than needing more new cards and leader abilities, we need everything that's in the game to actually matter and be a part of the game. I mean some cards are so obviously bad... 1 power order cards? really? Does anyone use those except for shenanigans? :(

PS: This is not to say, there shouldn't be nerfs any longer, even to the provision is fine, but it's too drastically for newcomes/beginners & casuals. Think before implementing stuff so it doesn't have to get nerfed so much/often. I have no issue with having to address 1 or perhaps even 2 decks cause of provision changes, but today was too much.
 
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