My biggest surprises:
- Ursine Ritual number 1 in Pro and intense play rate. From the new cards Bear Witcher Quartermaster and Haern Caduch are probably the cards which add most value to this deck. Quartermaster serves as an additional enabler and Haern Caduch interacts greatly with Blueboy Lugos. Ursine Ritual is to my mind somehow vulnerable to banish (e.g. banish a Cerys in graveyard) and Ihuarraquax (if you make your opponent to summon Cerys or Lippy Gudmund you can really hurt your opponent.
- Overhelming hunger weaker than expected: Actually my guess was that Uprising is number 1 and number 2 is overhelming hunger. So one proof that Viy is not so dominant as many players argue.
- Very bad performance of SY leaders: Congregate is most dominant (I was guessing hidden cache). Very sad is the bad performance of the other SY leader. I was actually guessing that jackpot is not doing a bad job with Fallen Rayla and the new self-poison package. This should be first priorits for upcoming boosts.
... despite having a lower winrate than at the very least 1 leader for every other faction.
Edit: If I was being unclear, this is actually surprising me.
I hope they don't kill of Lippy now because of that oppressive win rate and nerf Ursine Ritual or Cerys instead, we also need to consider that it took a while for the Meta to settle after the expansion release, the current months play and win rate looks most likely already a bit different, because right now it feels like I'm facing lockdown or NR Witchers 90 % of the time on Pro rank.
I hope they don't kill of Lippy now because of that oppressive win rate and nerf Ursine Ritual or Cerys instead, we also need to consider that it took a while for the Meta to settle after the expansion release, the current months play and win rate looks most likely already a bit different, because right now it feels like I'm facing lockdown or NR Witchers 90 % of the time on Pro rank.
From my point of view I am also absolutely suprised by that intense win rate of Ursine Ritual on Pro Rank.
Regarding nerfs:
Lets compare Cerys to her obvious counterparts of other fractions:
- Cerys: 11 provisions, 4 body + immediate spawn option of summoners or Queensguard (double play via Lippy)
- Roche Merciless: 12 provisions, 4 body, 2 damage + order (zeal if deathblow) spawn options of summoners (double play via Princess Pavetta)
=> Probably I would also give Cerys 12 provisions and maybe 1 random damage for it
Lippy was particulary boosted by the provision nerf of Roach and Knickers (both minus 1). Maybe it might be fair if both have 9 provisions.
Regarding Ursine Ritual:
It´s the leader offering the highest provision boost (17). If you argue that each self damage brings 1 value and the bear abnomination brings 6 value. We have a total value of 5 + 6+ 17 = 28.
Rage of the sea has only 13 provision boost. And each leader charge brings 4 damage + 2 body siren. So we end up: 13 + 2*6 =25
Reckless fury is also a 15 + 8 = 23
Onslaught can be a 16 + 8 = 24 (assuming 16 turns, can be higher if round is longer e.g. via Matta)
Patricidal Fury is a 15 + 8 = 23 plus bloodthirst triggerer (to my mind still the strongest and most problematic SK leader).
Nevertheless, to my mind this high provision boost of Ursine Ritual is not justified. Of course you can be unlucky and have no targets for self-wound but this is really bad luck if you play professionally.
My biggest surprises:
- Ursine Ritual number 1 in Pro and intense play rate. From the new cards Bear Witcher Quartermaster and Haern Caduch are probably the cards which add most value to this deck. Quartermaster serves as an additional enabler and Haern Caduch interacts greatly with Blueboy Lugos. Ursine Ritual is to my mind somehow vulnerable to banish (e.g. banish a Cerys in graveyard) and Ihuarraquax (if you make your opponent to summon Cerys or Lippy Gudmund you can really hurt your opponent.
- Overhelming hunger weaker than expected: Actually my guess was that Uprising is number 1 and number 2 is overhelming hunger. So one proof that Viy is not so dominant as many players argue.
- Very bad performance of SY leaders: Congregate is most dominant (I was guessing hidden cache). Very sad is the bad performance of the other SY leader. I was actually guessing that jackpot is not doing a bad job with Fallen Rayla and the new self-poison package. This should be first priorits for upcoming boosts.
You definitely need to consider Snowdrop - one of the biggest actual boosts to the Lippy variant. Easily gets to 10+, synergises perfectly with your deck and grants additional draw/mulligan options, mitigating one of the biggest weaknesses of the deck, namely bricks.
I hope they don't kill of Lippy now because of that oppressive win rate and nerf Ursine Ritual or Cerys instead, we also need to consider that it took a while for the Meta to settle after the expansion release, the current months play and win rate looks most likely already a bit different, because right now it feels like I'm facing lockdown or NR Witchers 90 % of the time on Pro rank.
At least a slight nerf will be necessary, one way or another. The deck is not unbeatable by any means, but considering it's relative ease-of-use, it can achieve a bit too good results.
Nevertheless, to my mind this high provision boost of Ursine Ritual is not justified. Of course you can be unlucky and have no targets for self-wound but this is really bad luck if you play professionally.
I was among the tiny % of people playing Stockpile, Royal Inspiration and Onslaught.
And this season I am among the masochists playing Arachas Swarm (idk why this one is 15 prov when it could be 16 considering how mediocre it is as an ability...).
I was among the tiny % of people playing Stockpile, Royal Inspiration and Onslaught.
And this season I am among the masochists playing Arachas Swarm (idk why this one is 15 prov when it could be 16 considering how mediocre it is as an ability...).
Arachas Swarm is quite good vs Lippy, NG and no unit bomb madoc, weak vs NR witcher, SK warrior and ST movement. With new cards that support swarm: chimera, spontaneous evolution, location, I think MO swarm is pretty good. Each organic special card gives us 1 drone so:
nature section x2 (for cat witcher, NR griffin witcher, NG sergeant)
spontaneous evolution x2
parasite x 1 (for NR Kelda, ST Gezras, MO phantom, the beast)
archas nest x 1 (for NG lock down when we can't spawn drone from leader)
and with Triss telekinesis x 1
So the total drones from leader ability passive are 7 drones.
These results are a bit fishy... No conspiracy theory but it's omegaweird. Low results of Viy might be explained by the popularity of Lockdown and ST control. But the results of Lippy and the popularity of Viy? This just doesn't add up. Lippy is a textbook autolose vs. Viy. (Well, it's possible for Viy to miss Viy and all the tutors - 8 out of 9 cards to miss - but the matchup is virtually unwinnable, Lippy game plan is the same as Viy but just less powerful.)
These results are a bit fishy... No conspiracy theory but it's omegaweird. Low results of Viy might be explained by the popularity of Lockdown and ST control. But the results of Lippy and the popularity of Viy? This just doesn't add up. Lippy is a textbook autolose vs. Viy. (Well, it's possible for Viy to miss Viy and all the tutors - 8 out of 9 cards to miss - but the matchup is virtually unwinnable, Lippy game plan is the same as Viy but just less powerful.)
This is my conjecture — and I can’t say I have a lot of evidence to back it.
Lippy has a high win rate because it is a strong deck built around good cards with a good balance of control and point-spawn that never goes tall and rarely goes too broad. It might be OP, but if so, it is OP built around strong, conventional play.
Viy is a gimmick deck revolving around a single card that denies conventional answers. It’s win rate is much less because it is vulnerable to certain counters but it’s win rate is very high if not countered by measures that are, frankly, poor deck design in general. Thus, Viy decks are unusually cyclic — when unpopular enough to not justify the counters, no one plays the counters and the win rate is high, which leads to more play, which leads to more counter decks, which leads to low win rates and less play, etc.
I am not surprised to see high rates of Viy play — and, riding its coattails, lots of play of those NG decks (especially lockdown) that provide what is at least a partly organic shutdown to Viy.
Lockdown is beeing used purely to shut down abusive, op decks.
When abusive plays with Skellige and ST OP leaders will be nerfed, then Lockdown will fall back, as it is rather weak, apart from shutting down one trick ponies.
That`s why Viy went down - when you lockdown 3xconsume from Hunger, Viy becomes much weaker.
From my point of view I am also absolutely suprised by that intense win rate of Ursine Ritual on Pro Rank.
Regarding nerfs:
Lets compare Cerys to her obvious counterparts of other fractions:
...
...
=> Probably I would also give Cerys 12 provisions and maybe 1 random damage for it
Lippy was particulary boosted by the provision nerf of Roach and Knickers (both minus 1). Maybe it might be fair if both have 9 provisions.
Regarding Ursine Ritual:
It´s the leader offering the highest provision boost (17). If you argue that each self damage brings 1 value and the bear abnomination brings 6 value. We have a total value of 5 + 6+ 17 = 28.
Rage of the sea has only 13 provision boost. And each leader charge brings 4 damage + 2 body siren. So we end up: 13 + 2*6 =25
Reckless fury is also a 15 + 8 = 23
Onslaught can be a 16 + 8 = 24 (assuming 16 turns, can be higher if round is longer e.g. via Matta)
Patricidal Fury is a 15 + 8 = 23 plus bloodthirst triggerer (to my mind still the strongest and most problematic SK leader).
Nevertheless, to my mind this high provision boost of Ursine Ritual is not justified. Of course you can be unlucky and have no targets for self-wound but this is really bad luck if you play professionally.
Lippy & Ursine Ritual:
I definitely agree to that Cerys could use some nerf. I actually run a deck on pro rank, using Ursine Ritual and Cerys, but since I'm not a lippy deck, I use it only once, However using it once can already pressure my opponent quite a lot.
What I want to comment is that, nerfing Ursine Ritual might not be the way to go, since originally it was designed for Berserk, which barely seen played currently. There are tons of ways to nerf Lippy, I hope Ursine Ritual stays what it is unless Berserk decks are find too powerful as well.
Post automatically merged:
Overwhelming Hunger:
Although Overwhelming Hunger shows a lower win rate as expected (though still competent), I would like to point out the fact that most decks in pro rank has prepared ways to deal with it, and this should be taken into account on deciding whether to nerf it or not.
However, I really hope Viy is reworked rather than simply nerfed, since in its natural when you include Viy in your deck, you have to play around it, otherwise it's high provision cost is just wasted. I hope Viy is modified to a spicy deathwish card that can found its place in a general deathwish deck.
To further illustrate, Glustyworp is a card that many Monster swarm plays around, since it cost only 9 provision compared to 12 of Viy, it provides a lot more flexibility to a swarm deck.
So for a rework example, we could modify Viy to: Provision: 9 Power: 8 Echo
Deathwish: increase the base power of this unit by 3.
In this case, some monster deck can consider Viy as a alternative of Old Speartip, and you do not have to design your whole deck to fit Viy. (Note: this example is more of a demonstration, I would hope Viy is modified in a way that half of the deck plays around it, but not the whole deck, just like how decks with Glustyworp looks like.)
Lippy is not the problem and it's also a unique card that perfectly fits with the lore of the faction.
The Lippy deck should be named Cerys deck because she's the one who carries it.
I'm agree with people saying Ursine Ritual needs a little nerf. 17 provisions are too high for such a versatile ability: it can be used to boost cards or doing damage. And you have a bear as a lovely final gift.
