March / Season of the Bear Tier List

[Messyr]

I had this idea earlier, to have a forums based discussion about the current (proposed) power level of decks out there.

Please keep in mind, this is an absolutely subjective list based on my own experience, as well as the impression I have while watching streamers.
Also, it is worth noting that this list focuses on Pro Rank level decks mostly - as on lower ranks the generic power distribution can be different, for now I only target Rank 5 - Pro in my analysis.

For further context, a short description to each Tier:

Tier 0: generally the "broken" tier, only awarded if a certain meta has an absolutely dominant deck option, easily breaking 60-65% winrate. A good example for this was SK Second Wind after MM launch.
Tier 1: the most powerful decks in the meta without being absolutely overpowered. Their common trait is in addition to their general power level is that they don't have direct counters within the meta. Can reach 55-60% winrate.
Tier 2: very good decks with clear Pro Rank potential, but are usually countered by at least one other popular archetype in play. Their effectiveness varies beween certain matchups and as such, tend to end at a winrate of 45-55%.
Tier 3: potentially good decks, but not suited to the meta. They are powerful in a few matchups but tend to suffer vs most of the higher tier lists. Can reach 45-50% winrate at the end of a season.


All this aside, here is my current list of the most popular decks for this month - all your comments are welcome.


Tier 0

- Nothing at the moment.


Tier 1

- SY Lined Pockets: very well rounded deck with no real downside or counter in the meta. Very high burst potential in R1, with the added potential to play "unitless" in a bleed R2. Very versatile and flexible spenders. High Tier 1.

- MO Arachas Swarm: although it could have several row punish counters, the meta is not running those techs. SY Tunnel Drill is a solid answer, holding back winrates effectively on this one. As such, this deck can freely prey on almost any other lists, making it a low Tier 1 deck. Very aggressive R1 and R2 bleed options. Bricks tall punish cards. Can be outpointed in long R3 by engine decks.


Tier 2

- SK Blaze of Glory + Eist: although potentially a Tier 1 list thanks to it's extreme burst potential with Leader+Eist, currently this play is effectively countered by the majority of the meta, making the combo clunky and often unreliable.

- MO Overwhelming Hunger + Viy: with the nerf to Lockdown and the overall lack of targeted techs, Viy decks are reemerging (unfortunately), taking their "well deserved" spot at high Tier 2. One of the true "Binary" decks out there.

- MO Carapace Kelly: even after the nerf to the interaction of Leader+Ciri: Dash, this deck (although having a pretty high skillcap, making it a poor choice for those who want to invest less and have the best immediate result with a list) is still a most viable option for higher ranks. Generally sees more play on 2500+.

- NG Double Cross + Spies/Ball: as solid as ever, NG Ball decks are widely represented in the meta, boasting a great variety in tech cards and Leaders. Currently the strongest option is the Double Cross variant with Location, Cantarella and Triple/Quadruple Joachim potential.

- NR Witchers: the recent nerf to Scythemen and Vesemir: Mentor knocked this one down by a Tier. Still a very viable and strong pointslam option, with a very explosive short R3 potential.

- SC Deadeye Ambush: be it the all-out elven, or the trap focused Eldain build, this deck in my opinion is still one of the stronger options in Tier 2, pushed out from Tier 1 by Lined Pockets. Very vulnerable to R2 bleed, as such, R1 win with this one is of utmost importance.

- SC Symbiosys Devotion: the power level of this deck didn't really change, although currently there are way more greedy decks around, pushing this to low Tier 2 in my book. More reliable in Tournament settings than Ladder.

- SC Dwarves: probably on the bottom of the Tier 2 list come Dwarves, boosted by Broover Hoogh. Because of the most predictable playstyle of this deck, it is still vulnerable to row disruption (spies, move effects) and several row punishes. A reasonable potential for 2:0 games against certain matchups. Generally weaker in R3 situations.


Tier 3 (without detailed reasoning)

- MO Vampire variations
- SC Movement Elves
- SC Precision Strike
- NG Double Madoc
- NG Spies/Agents + Emhyr
- SK UR/PF Warriors
- SK UR Lippy+Cerys
- NR Shield Wall

 

[MikeBiazzo]

Love this kind of threads. I can't wait to see what other people Will suggest.

 

[DRK3]

This is basically @Messyr 's meta report for Season of the Bear 2021. Are you trying to get a job on TLG or one of those Gwent teams, my good sir?

Enough, with the jests, i appreciate the effort, its very well structured and clear, regardless of personal opinions. I also loved to see someone else also using color coded text to differentiate the factions, hope it catchs on!

I am definitely not a fan of meta reports, which i never fail to mention, but i do like your tier classification by winrate ranges. Do the professional teams ever mention these values? Maybe they have them for their analysis but dont disclose them in the reports directly.
I do agree with the ranges you put for tier 0-1. For tier 2, i would go 50-55%, if a deck had 45% i wouldnt consider it tier 2, but tier 3 or below.

-I agree with tier 1, but i have played lined pockets exhaustively this season (for mastery reasons, the winrate is a "side effect"), and can say the reason why arachas swarm can stay in tier 1 is because not even lined pockets with tunnel drill is a big problem, that MO deck can generate way more units than SY's can generate coins to kill them all, the only real threat are decks with actual wide punishment, which are rare in this meta

-Regarding the Eist BoG, i think its lower tier 1, upper tier 2. But what i find most strange is how Warriors lists ditched Hemdall. I know Eist and Harald and Blood Eagle are expensive, but its certainly possible to find the provisions, specially when its the perfect counter for another tier 1 deck, the aforementioned arachas swarm, and still finds decent value in almost every match.

-Nilfgaard, you put double madoc on tier 3, i havent seen this enough lately to judge. But i dont see any Kolgrim/clog, which i would rate 2/3, above the Emhyr spies which i would say is low tier 3, i dont think i ever lost against it, maybe i was just lucky.

-Dont agree with Lippy Cerys on tier 3, i would put both versions of Ursine ritual (Lippy/not Lippy) still at tier 2.

-Also, it took me too long to realize why Patricidal Fury, which was one of the most played leaders for the past 8 or so months, to suddenly vanish... with the rise of BoG Eist, giving a guaranteed 11pt target to your opponent isnt too appealing, so here's a case of a leader which is great but doesnt see play because another meta leader preys on it.

 

[quintivarium]

I appreciate the objectivity of your report. It is a breath of fresh air when one person is effectively able to discuss the whole picture.

 

[soph912]

Lined Pocket isn't that good in fact.
Everyone knows exactly what cards you play and has experience playing against it which is a huge downside, some might even be teched against it.

Furthermore Lined Pocket is not that good against Arachas Swarm and Vij Decks since it usually doesn't run tall removal and the Drill is useless against AQ. 2 coins vor 1 drone? That doesn't seem so great...
AQ can often quickly set up a new row of drones and then you are usually doomed. Sometimes AQ can't and is doomed with 2 useless Bone Talismans in hand for example.
Even my Passiflora meme deck (engine-overload) is better against Vij Decks since it runs both: Heatwave and
Moreelse. Of course you can run Heatwave in Lined Pockets too but then you have to cut Philippa which doesn't seem right and one Heatwave alone is not enough anyway.

 

[Messyr]

Thanks for the feedback everyone, appreciated.

As @quintivarium pointed out, I also believe objectivity is key for these topics (either way, I generally try to be as objective as possible with this game).

and can say the reason why arachas swarm can stay in tier 1 is because not even lined pockets with tunnel drill is a big problem, that MO deck can generate way more units than SY's can generate coins to kill them all, the only real threat are decks with actual wide punishment, which are rare in this meta

Furthermore Lined Pocket is not that good against Arachas Swarm

I tend to agree with both of you - however, without direct techs, this is still the most "effective" counterplay available out there. As trap SC is not that popular in higher ranks, and players still focusing on tall removal options (with the returning Viy decks as well as Quad Joachim NG with 10+ mentors it is understandable), cards like Yrden, Heimdall, Lambert are still absent from most decks.
Also, one of the reason for Arachas Swarm popularity is the declining playrates of NR Witchers - earlier that deck was absolutely able to match the pointslam of AQ, having a way better short R3 AND usually running Yrden.

Lined Pocket isn't that good in fact.
Everyone knows exactly what cards you play and has experience playing against it which is a huge downside, some might even be teched against it.

Well, I really believe they are THAT good in the current meta. First off, you cannot tech against it. I'd be curious what tech options would you consider targeting specifically this deck? It can go tall and wide (which is controllable by the player), it can answer tall and wide decks, it has a massively powerful R1, an invulnerable "unitless" R2/R3, and overall, can easily keep up with points vs Arachas Swarm in medium long Rounds. Can also produce a reasonable amount of units in short time, making Yennefer less of a buff too.

Viy is a different issue, just as it was in the previous seasons - it requires a very specific deckbuilding direction (namely lots of Locks, Resets and tall punish cards) which only NG Lockdown was able to produce earlier (this was the only reason Viy decks disappeared, the actual nerf to OH Leader doesn't affect them that much).
While I generally avoid throwing around "Binary' and such, Viy is the epitome of a binary deck. In my opinion, while Eist is an overpowered card, Viy is just unhealthy for the meta, singlehandedly forcing other decks into otherwise unnecessary tech choices.

 

[Barracuda88]

ST PS is a bit generic for describing a deck, but a Madoc/Schirru variant should swap places with the Dwarves. The Dwarves are not T2, even with Brouver, imo, due to lack of any sort of removal. Nor are traps, because of how unreliable the traps still are, even with the buffs to the Serpent and Pit. T3 for both, I think.

 

[Messyr]

ST PS is a bit generic for describing a deck, but a Madoc/Schirru variant should swap places with the Dwarves.

By SC PS I was referring to the non-Schirru variation. That one is very matchup dependent and as such, sees less efficient play than the "unitless" variant.

The Dwarves are not T2, even with Brouver, imo, due to lack of any sort of removal.

A valid point. As for the dwarven deck I was referring to uses Heatwave.

Nor are traps, because of how unreliable the traps still are, even with the buffs to the Serpent and Pit.

Here I disagree. Deadye Ambush was reaching top 3-5 in winrates in multiple seasons now. The variant with only 3 types of traps is quite reliable actually - it definitely has a T2 spot.

 

[DRK3]

Everyone knows exactly what cards you play and has experience playing against it which is a huge downside, some might even be teched against it.

You can say that about pratically all of the meta decks. And by experience, i would say that Lined Pockets Crimes still shows more variety than SK Warriors or Arachas swarm, for example ive seen a few players using Whoreson Jr and Freakshow, and my personal version has the portal and intimidate engines for an even stronger R1.

Also, the problem of tier 0/1 decks is they arent easy to tech against, there isnt a deck that completely dominates them or they wouldnt be in such tiers, by definition.

The Dwarves are not T2, even with Brouver, imo, due to lack of any sort of removal. Nor are traps, because of how unreliable the traps still are, even with the buffs to the Serpent and Pit. T3 for both, I think.

I can agree that dwarves arent tier 2, when i saw OP post i thought mentioning it, but its not too far off, i would say they're lower tier 2/upper tier 3.

But i disagree on your take about traps (and im refering to elf traps), its the deck ive had most success on climbing ranks, specially after i ditched devotion to get oneiro, it can definitely hold on its own, even vs some tier 1 decks (great vs arachas, decent vs SK warriors since you can spend a long time R3 without giving them targets/bloodthirst.

 

[Barracuda88]

Here I disagree. Deadye Ambush was reaching top 3-5 in winrates in multiple seasons now. The variant with only 3 types of traps is quite reliable actually - it definitely has a T2 spot.

Deadeye ambush, to me, the prior non-trap variety was easily a T1 deck over several prior seasons, even before Gezras reinforced it. But traps and Eldain somehow made it weaker, though it may be the meta's fault (SY in particular). It's not garbage by any means, and well-worthy of T3, but in my opinion, both, Nature's gift devotion and Unitless Madoc are stronger.

 

[Guest 4416545]

Since i agree with almost all im just gonna say what i would change from Messi's list:

I Will add NG ball/cantarella to tier 1, them having the option of joackim round 1 make It way strong than other masquerade ball decks, they can fight for round 1 and force a long round 3 in a lot of case so yes, i Will put them tier 1.

And as barracuda just have say, i Will add dead eye ambush with movement package to tier 2.

Havent played much but i cut toruviel for bekkers mirror and since that change i can manage to fight r1 to line pocket and avoid losing on even, i just use bekker or heatwave on the first safecrackwr and from then on its not so oppresive, plus i Will add that everyone expect traps and not gerzas so they can make some mistakes till they realize.

And i Will put dwarves to tier 3, so far what i see from them i think they are still weak.

And thats all, btw: beautifull topic!, i enjoyed reading and the clear It show with color for each faction and those littel details.