Meta Report #11 and some meta analysis
There is a new Metareport available. Now that the challenge is gone for good, we see the results in the Meta Report, as Henselt and Dagon lost a lot of popularity, while Emhyr, Calveit and Brouver gained a lot of popularity each. Henselt, Dagon, Calveit and Brouver are basically there, where they were before the faction challenge, so the Meta hasn't shifted that much over the past month. Only Crach and Emhyr gained a lot of momentum.
Crach an Craite: 19.5%
Brouver: 17.3%
Calveit: 17%
Henselt: 10.1%
Dagon: 7.2%
Emhyr : 6.1%
Eithne: 5.1%
Arachnas Queen: 3.2%
Here is the statistic for the current report (all values are in %, data is only taken from the highest available tier):
I removed some unrelevant rows, to give a better overview.
And here are the last three reports:
What did happen? Imlerith stayed basically constant at 18% but due to the decrease of MO popularity, he decreased from 1.7 to 1.1 total popularity.
Mandrake at the other hand stayed as popular as the last weeks and with the popularity spike of Alchemy, it became even more popular overall. The same is basically true for Runestone, which also increased its total popularity mainly due to Alchemy but also thanks to a greater inclusion in Greatswords.
Due to the popularity of big unit decks as Nilfgaard Handbuff and Greatswords, Scorch effects have become more popular in the other factions, but decreased in total, due to those decks not running them being on the uprise.
Weather clears are still low at 39%.
And the biggest winner in this report has again been Reconnaissance now at 47% (last values: 41,37,32,26). Nekkers, Reveal, Machines and Axemen are basically the only decks not using it. And for nearly all other decks it is true that its popularity increased.
The rise of thinners and tutors as Vesemir and Reconnaissance leads me to the next statistic, the Self Milling Value of each deck.
The Self Milling Value is the sum over all inclusion percentages of cards that reduce the number of cards in the deck. The value is supposed to be a lower border for the self milling and therefore doesn't include cards as Hym, which are only situational deck thinners. (Vilgefortz is included as he is basically never used for something different). This also excludes Triss into Recon. Also, to have a lower border, I assumed that bronze thinners/tutors are only included once in a deck (or twice if they are Temerian Infantry cards).
Also, it is important to note that cards that add cards back to the deck aren't included such as Nekker Warriors, Nenneke or Assire
Eredin: 5,5
Unseen Elder: 5,4
Dagon: 6
Whispering Hillock: 5,2
Arachnas Queen: 5,9
Emhyr: 6
Morvan: 5,8
Calveit: 6,9
Ursurper: 5,5
Foltest: 10
Radovid: 7,8
Henselt: 7
Adda: 4,6
Francesca: 5,5
Eithne: 6
Brouver: 6,5
Filandravel: 5,7
Bran: 8,6
Crach: 7,9
Harald: 5,7
Eist: 6
This means for example, that Crach is able to play at least 21 of his cards. If Hym is used for thinning too, and either a second Spearmaiden or Pirate Captain are included, we get 23.
It is similar for Calveit, who will include 3 instead of just 1 Alchemist for sure, such being able to play 23 of 25 cards and putting 2 pack with Assire.
For these reasons, I personally decided to enjoy a milling deck instead of crying over Recon. And I have to say I have a lot of fun.
The last statistic that I want to show for today is the deck varity. In this statistic you can see how many cards each leader uses with a propability of >=90 or >=10 percent. I choose these two values as cards with a greater 90% inclusion rate could be considered a core card for the deck and cards with less than 10% inclusion rate could be considered not really belonging to the standard deck and its variations.
This statistic offers a lot of interesting information about the state of the meta and viability of each leader and deck.
I only want to remark to things. First of all is Henselt. Here we can see that all Henselt decks have a core set of 4 bronze cards and only decide wether to include Ballistas or Reinforced Ballistas.
Moreover, looking at Crach, the bronze diversity looks quite high with only 2 standard cards and up to 10 different cards, but that is a complete illusion. If one looks at the Crach statistics in the Meta Report, one will notice immediantly that this is only due to 1/3 of all Crach players are playing Veterans. If we divide those two archetypes, we will get that there is basically only a single card that isn't in the core set, which is Recon.
There is a new Metareport available. Now that the challenge is gone for good, we see the results in the Meta Report, as Henselt and Dagon lost a lot of popularity, while Emhyr, Calveit and Brouver gained a lot of popularity each. Henselt, Dagon, Calveit and Brouver are basically there, where they were before the faction challenge, so the Meta hasn't shifted that much over the past month. Only Crach and Emhyr gained a lot of momentum.
Crach an Craite: 19.5%
Brouver: 17.3%
Calveit: 17%
Henselt: 10.1%
Dagon: 7.2%
Emhyr : 6.1%
Eithne: 5.1%
Arachnas Queen: 3.2%
Here is the statistic for the current report (all values are in %, data is only taken from the highest available tier):
| #11 | All Factions | Monster | Nilfgaard | Northern Realms | Sc'ioatel | Skellige |
| Silver Spies | 87,1 | 66,8 | 91,6 | 88,1 | 94,3 | 84,8 |
| Weather Mage | 32,3 | 5,2 | 6,3 | 56,1 | 84,1 | 7,2 |
| Silver Lock | 4,4 | 18,5 | 1,3 | 8 | 2,4 | 0,2 |
| Runestone | 32,6 | 1,5 | 76,7 | 1,8 | 4,4 | 47,8 |
| Scorch | 15,7 | 1,6 | 5,1 | 70,3 | 16,7 | 0,2 |
| Mandrake | 47,4 | 65,4 | 82,5 | 3,5 | 19,2 | 54,7 |
| Villen | 5 | 0 | 3,5 | 23,6 | 3 | 0 |
| Geralt: Igni | 8,2 | 9,3 | 2,9 | 4,2 | 7,5 | 16,9 |
| Schirru | 14,8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61,6 | 0 |
| Vesemir | 33,7 | 4,9 | 81,6 | 0,7 | 1,6 | 48,6 |
| Reconnaissance | 46,7 | 38,2 | 28,3 | 16,3 | 67,8 | 68,5 |
| Roach | 19,7 | 16,5 | 40,7 | 2,8 | 8,3 | 20,1 |
| Alzur's Double-Cross | 26,2 | 32,8 | 10,5 | 75,7 | 11,5 | 24,9 |
And here are the last three reports:
| #10 | All Factions | Monster | Nilfgaard | Northern Realms | Sc'ioatel | Skellige |
| Silver Spies | 84,7 | 70,5 | 92,4 | 85,6 | 91,8 | 81,2 |
| Weather Mage | 33,5 | 7,2 | 8,2 | 58 | 81,9 | 6,9 |
| Silver Lock | 5,4 | 14,5 | 1,3 | 10,2 | 2,4 | 0,3 |
| Runestone | 25,8 | 14, | 76,5 | 1,9 | 3,8 | 42,8 |
| Scorch | 18,7 | 1,7 | 5,1 | 65,8 | 15,3 | 0,1 |
| Mandrake | 44,6 | 68 | 82,3 | 4,3 | 23,8 | 53,3 |
| First Light | 0,8 | 1,6 | 0,4 | 0,5 | 1,7 | 0,1 |
| Weather Clearing Unit | 3 | 1,3 | 1 | 5,6 | 6,6 | 0,2 |
| Alzur's Thunder | 6,3 | 0,4 | 0 | 10,1 | 19,8 | 0 |
| Shackles | 0,7 | 1,6 | 0 | 0,3 | 2 | 0 |
| Villen | 5,1 | 0 | 3,6 | 17,3 | 3 | 0 |
| Geralt: Igni | 8,2 | 7,2 | 2,2 | 3,8 | 6,6 | 19,6 |
| Schirru | 11,9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59,3 | 0 |
| Vesemir | 27,4 | 7,3 | 81,8 | 0,7 | 1,1 | 44,9 |
| Reconnaissance | 40,7 | 33,3 | 21,9 | 18,3 | 64 | 63,1 |
| Roach | 18,9 | 20,7 | 45 | 2,7 | 8,4 | 20,3 |
| Alzur's Double-Cross | 32 | 29 | 11,2 | 74,1 | 14,8 | 26,5 |
| #9 | All Factions | Monster | Nilfgaard | Northern Realms | Sc'ioatel | Skellige |
| Silver Spies | 83,9 | 79,2 | 95,4 | 94 | 90,3 | 64,7 |
| Weather Mage | 35,3 | 8 | 13,6 | 50 | 79,2 | 14,2 |
| Silver Lock | 9 | 21,9 | 1,4 | 11,7 | 3,4 | 1,7 |
| Runestone | 22,3 | 2,1 | 75,9 | 3,3 | 4,5 | 48,6 |
| Scorch | 21,6 | 2,7 | 8,6 | 58 | 18,3 | 0,3 |
| Mandrake | 43,9 | 67,5 | 80 | 5,5 | 27,5 | 62,8 |
| First Light | 1,4 | 1,9 | 0,3 | 1 | 3 | 0,4 |
| Weather Clearing Unit | 3,6 | 1,4 | 1,9 | 6 | 6,6 | 0,2 |
| Alzur's Thunder | 6,7 | 0,4 | 0 | 11,1 | 19,2 | 0,2 |
| Shackles | 1,7 | 2,2 | 0 | 0,9 | 1,7 | 0,2 |
| Villen | 6,6 | 0 | 6,1 | 16,9 | 4,7 | 0 |
| Geralt: Igni | 7 | 7,7 | 2,4 | 4 | 4,8 | 18,9 |
| Schirru | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62,1 | 0 |
| Vesemir | 24,2 | 9 | 78,4 | 1,8 | 1,5 | 54,9 |
| Reconnaissance | 37,2 | 38 | 12,7 | 21,2 | 55,7 | 66,9 |
| Roach | 15,4 | 14,8 | 37 | 3 | 11,4 | 20,8 |
| AlzurÄs Double-Cross | 34,8 | 24,5 | 8,9 | 67,3 | 16,9 | 39,6 |
| #8 | All Factions | Monster | Nilfgaard | Northern Realms | Sc'ioatel | Skellige |
| Silver Spies | 80,3% | 64,6% | 95,3% | 85,6% | 94,2% | 53,5% |
| Weather Mage | 34,8% | 7,5% | 16,7% | 53,7% | 76,3% | 12,8% |
| Silver Lock | 8,2% | 23,3% | 0,5% | 14,7% | 3,7% | 2,2% |
| Runestone | 28,6% | 2% | 80,2% | 2,5% | 5% | 47,6% |
| Scorch | 17,1% | 3,8% | 8,3% | 57,9% | 20,4% | 0% |
| Mandrake | 52% | 75,6% | 84,2% | 6,8% | 28,7% | 64,3% |
| First Light | 2,1% | 1,6% | 0,1% | 3,7% | 3,7% | 1,8% |
| Weather Clearing Unit | 2,5% | 0,8% | 0,6% | 7,7% | 3,9% | 0,2% |
| Alzur's Thunder | 6% | 0,4% | 0% | 12% | 16,4% | 0% |
| Shackles | 1,2% | 2,2% | 0,4% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Villen | 7,9% | 0% | 6,9% | 24,2% | 9,6% | 0% |
| Geralt: Igni | 6,2% | 4,1% | 2,3% | 4,4% | 3,9% | 18,7% |
| Schirru | 15,2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 62,8% | 0% |
| Vesemir | 28,7% | 1% | 82,2% | 1,7% | 1,6% | 51,7% |
| Reconnaissance | 32,7% | 29,7% | 10,7% | 17,3% | 43,1% | 65,4% |
| #7 | All Factions | Monster | Nilfgaard | Northern Realms | Sc'ioatel | Skellige |
| Silver Spies | 84,5% | 60,5% | 95,2% | 85,4% | 96,2% | 73,6% |
| Weather Mage | 40,2% | 18,5% | 24,2% | 51,8% | 64,6% | 22,9% |
| Silver Lock | 5,6% | 15,1% | 0,9% | 13,4% | 2,8% | 2,2% |
| Runestone | 20,8% | 2,1% | 69,1% | 4% | 5,2% | 31,2% |
| Scorch | 15% | 3,2% | 12,5% | 46% | 16,3% | 0,2% |
| Mandrake | 28,7% | 38,4% | 68% | 1,7% | 12,7% | 30,3% |
| First Light | 1,6% | 2,1% | 0% | 2,3% | 2,5% | 0,6% |
| Weather Clearing Unit | 2,3% | 1,8% | 1,4% | 4,5% | 3,1% | 0,2% |
| Alzur's Thunder | 4,8% | 0,2% | 0% | 4% | 12,9% | 0% |
| Shackles | 0,1% | 0,1% | 0,3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Villen | 8,3% | 0% | 12% | 32,4% | 3,8% | 0% |
| Geralt: Igni | 9,7% | 8% | 4,6% | 7,1% | 6,4% | 25% |
| Schirru | 18,7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 57,5% | 0% |
| Vesemir | 18% | 0,2% | 68% | 0% | 1,5% | 28% |
| Reconnaissance | 25,7% | 28,1% | 3,3% | 15,2% | 30,2% | 46,2% |
What did happen? Imlerith stayed basically constant at 18% but due to the decrease of MO popularity, he decreased from 1.7 to 1.1 total popularity.
Mandrake at the other hand stayed as popular as the last weeks and with the popularity spike of Alchemy, it became even more popular overall. The same is basically true for Runestone, which also increased its total popularity mainly due to Alchemy but also thanks to a greater inclusion in Greatswords.
Due to the popularity of big unit decks as Nilfgaard Handbuff and Greatswords, Scorch effects have become more popular in the other factions, but decreased in total, due to those decks not running them being on the uprise.
Weather clears are still low at 39%.
And the biggest winner in this report has again been Reconnaissance now at 47% (last values: 41,37,32,26). Nekkers, Reveal, Machines and Axemen are basically the only decks not using it. And for nearly all other decks it is true that its popularity increased.
The rise of thinners and tutors as Vesemir and Reconnaissance leads me to the next statistic, the Self Milling Value of each deck.
The Self Milling Value is the sum over all inclusion percentages of cards that reduce the number of cards in the deck. The value is supposed to be a lower border for the self milling and therefore doesn't include cards as Hym, which are only situational deck thinners. (Vilgefortz is included as he is basically never used for something different). This also excludes Triss into Recon. Also, to have a lower border, I assumed that bronze thinners/tutors are only included once in a deck (or twice if they are Temerian Infantry cards).
Also, it is important to note that cards that add cards back to the deck aren't included such as Nekker Warriors, Nenneke or Assire
Eredin: 5,5
Unseen Elder: 5,4
Dagon: 6
Whispering Hillock: 5,2
Arachnas Queen: 5,9
Emhyr: 6
Morvan: 5,8
Calveit: 6,9
Ursurper: 5,5
Foltest: 10
Radovid: 7,8
Henselt: 7
Adda: 4,6
Francesca: 5,5
Eithne: 6
Brouver: 6,5
Filandravel: 5,7
Bran: 8,6
Crach: 7,9
Harald: 5,7
Eist: 6
This means for example, that Crach is able to play at least 21 of his cards. If Hym is used for thinning too, and either a second Spearmaiden or Pirate Captain are included, we get 23.
It is similar for Calveit, who will include 3 instead of just 1 Alchemist for sure, such being able to play 23 of 25 cards and putting 2 pack with Assire.
For these reasons, I personally decided to enjoy a milling deck instead of crying over Recon. And I have to say I have a lot of fun.
The last statistic that I want to show for today is the deck varity. In this statistic you can see how many cards each leader uses with a propability of >=90 or >=10 percent. I choose these two values as cards with a greater 90% inclusion rate could be considered a core card for the deck and cards with less than 10% inclusion rate could be considered not really belonging to the standard deck and its variations.
| Golds>=90 | >=10 | Silvers>=90 | >=10 | Bronze>=90 | >=10 | |
| Eredin | 0 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
| Unseen Elder | 0 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18 |
| Dagon | 0 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| Whispering Hillock | 0 | 13 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| Arachnas Queen | 1 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| Emhyr | 0 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| Morvan | 0 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| Ursurper | 0 | 12 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| Foltest | 0 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 25 |
| Radovid | 0 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| Henselt | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Adda | 0 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 9 |
| Francesca | 0 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 16 |
| Eithne | 0 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
| Brouver | 0 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| Filandravel | 0 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| Bran | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| Crach | 1 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 10 |
| Harald | 3 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| Eist | 0 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 11 |
I only want to remark to things. First of all is Henselt. Here we can see that all Henselt decks have a core set of 4 bronze cards and only decide wether to include Ballistas or Reinforced Ballistas.
Moreover, looking at Crach, the bronze diversity looks quite high with only 2 standard cards and up to 10 different cards, but that is a complete illusion. If one looks at the Crach statistics in the Meta Report, one will notice immediantly that this is only due to 1/3 of all Crach players are playing Veterans. If we divide those two archetypes, we will get that there is basically only a single card that isn't in the core set, which is Recon.
I look forward to a rematch xD when I won't be carrying a hyperthinning deck 