Might as well look at what "random unit" means.

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I've been messing around with Nilfgaard reveal these days, and I notice something about "reveal a random unit". I don't know if it is flawed, but it happens very very often reveling the same gold card (I don't take into consideration bronzes since it might be two of them) 2, 3 or even 4 times in a row, while having a lot of cards left in the deck. This doesn't sound correct, at least from the probabilities point of view.

I don't know if it is my own perception, but maybe there's something not working properly when revealing a card and then placing it again in the deck.
 

4RM3D

Ex-moderator
RNG is RNG. I have faced quite a few Reveal decks and never noticed a pattern of any kind.
 
Yesterday I played and my opponent revealed the same card from my deck many times in a row.

I think this is the same as with a blue coin strikes in the past, statistically low probability, but it happens all the time.
 
For example just right now, with 12 cards remaining in my deck I used Vrygheff (triggers the deploy abilities of two adjacent units) in between 2 recruits (reveal one random card of each player and boost by 2 if yours is higher), and both recruits revelaed the same gold card from my deck, the probability for that happening is 1/24, and it's happening quite often.
 
Yesterday I played and my opponent revealed the same card from my deck many times in a row.

I think this is the same as with a blue coin strikes in the past, statistically low probability, but it happens all the time.

It does not happen all the time. What are you talking about? It's just that you tend to remember it while you don't remember normal occurrences.

Kaiser's perception might be spot on and you shouldn't brush it off without any knowledge.
 
It does not happen all the time. What are you talking about

Sorry for not providing detailed statistics for this.
I play very little now and I can't play 100 matches or so against Reveal only.
But I think that even the only match in which it happened was too unpleasant and unbelievable for simple coincidence.
Also it was the strongest unit from my deck, which opponent used to buff his soldiers.
 
For example just right now, with 12 cards remaining in my deck I used Vrygheff (triggers the deploy abilities of two adjacent units) in between 2 recruits (reveal one random card of each player and boost by 2 if yours is higher), and both recruits revelaed the same gold card from my deck, the probability for that happening is 1/24, and it's happening quite often.

The probability in this case is 1/12 (it doesn't matter which card the first recruit reveals, and the second recruit needs to reveal the same card out of 12).
 
The probability in this case is 1/12 (it doesn't matter which card the first recruit reveals, and the second recruit needs to reveal the same card out of 12).

Mmmm that's not how it goes. The chance of getting two times in a row the same card is P(card A)*P(card A) = 1/24. Its like when you flip a coin, the chances of getting heads two times in a row is 1/2*1/2 = 1/4.

Anyway, I'm not arguining the concept of randomness nor probability. This is my own perception which might be biased. I'm only pointing out that it could be that there's something in how a card is picked and placed back in the deck so random is not as random.
 
Mmmm that's not how it goes. The chance of getting two times in a row the same card is P(card A)*P(card A) = 1/24. Its like when you flip a coin, the chances of getting heads two times in a row is 1/2*1/2 = 1/4.

Getting heads two times in a row is not the same as getting the same card two times in a row.

Imagine you have only two cards in a deck. Probability of getting the same one two times in a row is 1/2, not 1/4.
 
Getting heads two times in a row is not the same as getting the same card two times in a row.

Imagine you have only two cards in a deck. Probability of getting the same one two times in a row is 1/2, not 1/4.

That is not how it works

You have 2 cards in the deck, first draw is a 1/2 chance of getting the right one, then you put the card back and draw again. It's again a 1/2 chance to get the right card.

For EACH draw it's 1/2 but for 2 right draws back to back the chance is 1/4 so 25%

There are 4 possible outcomes:

1) You draw 2 times the right card
2) You draw first the right, then the wrong card
3) You draw first the wrong, then the right card
4) You draw the wrong card twice

1 of them is the outcome you want, so 1/4
 
1) You draw 2 times the right card
2) You draw first the right, then the wrong card
3) You draw first the wrong, then the right card
4) You draw the wrong card twice

1) Arbalest procs twice and wins the game
2) Xarth reveals Tibor or Golem and wins the game
3) Golem reveals a 1-2 pt unit and wins the game
4) Spotter reveals your top unit and wins the game

Fixed the above for ya :).

Joking aside... It does feel like the card revealed ends up being the same the next time a reveal goes off. It's not always the case but feels like it happens a bit often. Perhaps it's random like the bugge... I mean random mulligans from Gwent.
 
For example just right now, with 12 cards remaining in my deck I used Vrygheff (triggers the deploy abilities of two adjacent units) in between 2 recruits and both recruits revelaed the same gold card from my deck.

I think it's more a bug maybe with him than the other RNG aspects of Reveal. Ideally you want him to hit his deploy between two soldiers although sometimes it's not possible due to locks on one or they've been destroyed. Vrygheff seems to pull the same card twice in a row, instead of random cards compared to the Leader or other Reveal cards like Triss(?). This might have been fixed already or could just be coincidence but it reminds me of HearthStone when you used an effect that doubled the Battlecry (akin to Vrygheff) and the effect hit the same minion twice, basically it stacks.
 
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Well, what I suspect is that it might be something wrong with the algorithm behind drawing and placing cards. We all know what random means, but that doesn't mean that the random function programmed is working properly. I cannot present feasible proof, since all it's based in my own experience, but revealing the exact same card several times in a row very frequently considering the theortical low probability makes me wonder what is happening.
 
In the recent faction challenge I have been playing with decks I haven't tried earlier. For the last 2 days I have been playing with a Morvran reveal deck, and I have noticed that reveal is not that random.
This is very noticable when playing Morvran, since he reveals 3 cards in quick succession (at least on console). Usually 2 of the 3 cards reveals the same 2 cards.
When I noticed this, I recorded the 6 next times I uses Morvrans abilites:

These are 6 consecutive games:
  • Ghoul is revealed 3 times, with 15 cards left in the deck:
  • Anicent Foglet is revealed 2 times, with 6 cards left in the deck:
  • Scoia'tael Neophyte revealed 2 times, with 15 cards left in the deck:
  • Hawker Smuggler revealed 2 times, with 15 cards left in the deck:
  • Spotter revealed 2 times, with 15 cards left in the deck:
  • Lacerate revealed 2 times, with 8 cards left in the deck:
    https://youtu.be/S9He__t0GS4
This isn't cherrypicking either. I noticed this phenomenom before I started recording, and it continued after I stopped.

Another thing I have noticed, is that a lot of the time, the same cards are revealed several times in a row. I am not talking bronzes either (which you could have 2 copies of in each deck). The same gold cards are revealed multiple times. This is especially noticable when playing Deithwen Arbalest and Recruit. Both these cards reveal one card from each deck. I find it very strange when the same 2 cards are revealed 3 times in a row.

PS: I wanted to post this in the Gameplay forum, but it seems I am not wothy yet.
 
I noticed similar situations, but those were rare, rare but extreme. Allways the same card reveiled on my or opppnents side, like 5 times in a row.
 
I'm playing NG for the Faction Challenge and this seems to happen a lot for me as well. Especially with Morvran reveals.
 
For me, it's always the top card in my deck that's revealed when an opposing Morvran uses their ability.
 
I find it very strange when the same 2 cards are revealed 3 times in a row.

I also noticed the same behaviour.

My guess is that they use time as a seed for their pseudorandom generator.
Which means two closely subsequent "random" tries will give the very same outcome!
 
Parts of random really, really suck. I personally don;t think any "summon" should nullify a cards deploy ability. Not just Tibor/Vilg but Golyat as well - if the card that appears can do something, it should probably 'auto' do its action (if it has one).

I face less and less random these days - I don't think random helps the opposing player as much as it did in original gwent.
 
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