First of all i want to apologize for taking so long to do the statistical analysis and post it.
Second, i want to thank EVERYONE who contributed with their data, specially the people who kept their posts to a minimum text, in an easy-to-gather data format, and with complete information. And also thanks to Excel
Third, i want to clarify some of the choices i made:
- there were so many formats users chose, which made my job much harder, so i had to ignore some data. I didnt use info on commons and rares, as only some users collected it (i didnt), and i think most arent particularly interested in knowing that, as bronzes are pretty easy to obtain and most probably already have all MM bronzes.
- i also had to ignore users who only posted total kegs and no. of legendaries, but not of epics, if i had used that data it would corrupt the results
- unfortunately, i also ignored all data from Premium MM kegs, as they weren't that many and would require an additional set of calculations, as those had to be kept separate from the rest or the standard/premium results would be corrupt
Standard Epic Droprate - 18.4%
Premium Epic Droprate - 2.6%
Standard Legendary Droprate - 5.8%
Premium Legendary Droprate - 0.8%
Total Kegs - 1182
The first set includes all results i used, the second only the results from the users which differentiated between standard and premium.
For those who aren't familiarized with statistics, this does not mean these are the true rarity droprates, but with a sample data in the thousands, they can be considered good estimates.
Finally, this endeavour took me around 1h30m, most of which were trying to decipher and choose criteria for which data to use. Im not complaining, but next expansion, if i were to do something similar, i would probably request a specific format to all users, and simply ignore all who dont use it. It was my mistake not thinking of that prior to this launch.