So did anyone bother to calculate how much value on average you get from this deck? I believe Tall MO is currently way over the top.
The short answer is the big units provide value under the provision cost and the GY consumes and cards like Incantation offset the loss by earning it back. Thrives are the wild card, gaining additional value via the bigger units.
In the event thrives get shut down and big units get destroyed or reset the value you get off this approach is not impressive. Which is why some of the popular NR decks can straight up wreck tall MS builds. They can kill thrives. They can kill big units. Depending on build, they can put up impressive positive numbers themselves.
1) You HAVE to counter play or you simply can't reach them point wise. You can't simply let them grow while you unveil your strategy because they will always be bigger than you.
I'd dispute this claim. There are quite a number of cards capable of 8+ positive value in a single card play. Many of them can exceed anything tall MS can put up points-wise, barring Woodlands getting used, at a lower provision cost. The difference is most of them require setup. Most of the big tempo plays available to tall MS do not.
2) You need to have the luck to DRAW the counter. I have Yrden and Berrek's in my deck. There are still matches that I don't draw either of them from my deck vs Tall MO.
Doesn't this apply to everything where failing to draw a counter leads to trouble?
Let's count how many high tempo plays tall MO has? I believe anything >8 falls in this category.
Old speartip, golyat, speartip:asleep, weavess:incantation, 3 ghouls (counting the ranged guy here too), woodland spirit ability....the list goes on. Throw in witchers+roach or the 2 wild hunt riders (with the super easy deploy ability), and you can consistently play ONLY high tempo cards + pretty good thinning value too. With riders/witchers/roach/weavess you thin 5 cards! Better than some SK decks.
7-8 counting Woodlands, usually. Depends on the tall MS build.
Most probably aren't running all of the cards listed because it would mean the ability to do anything to the opponent board boils down to Drowners and a maybe a couple 2-3 damage units. It's 113p for all the cards you listed. That leaves 52 for the other 12 cards. So yeah, you get a lot of big units. And almost all of the other player cards can go untouched.
The SK comparison is not fair. Thinning by 5 using twice as many cards for like twice the provision cost, when none of them can fix a deck, is not the same thing.
So when is this deck going to be brought down to earth where the rest of the decks are?
If it's so amazing everyone would be playing it and stomping everyone else. It's not the case. Try it if you don't believe me.