4RM3D;n9338381 said:
Looking at another hypothetical situation. Let's say this game has 1 million players. Going first 20 times in a row has the odds of 1 in a million. That means someone probably experienced this (and should buy a lottery ticket). (S)he posts on the forum saying the game is rigged, then one person replies "Hey, I went first 10 times in a row" and another says the same thing. Then players start thinking the game is rigged. In truth, going first 10 times in a row happens to 1 in 1000 players. On a player base of a million, that's still a lot of people who are unlucky.
No conspiracy going on, just cold hard statistics and probabilities.
Man, you should really update your probability theories skills!!!! You are nowhere near to the correct calculations!
First, each player is from the probability point of view an individual events' stream.... THEY ARE NOT ALL TOGETHER. So, instead of adding up individual probabilities you have to multiply them!!!!!.
You can add them probabilities up only and only when an event is influencing the other event. Or players are individuals not connected one to another!!!! Not even at quantum level
Every single is having his own series of coin results, not influenced by anything!.
Like you a have a fortune cake sliced in one million slices. If 1000 players would eat from same cake one slice each, accumulated probability to get the fortune would be 1000/1000000 = 1 in one thousand.
But, IN FACT, every player is having his own personal unique 1 millions slices cake !!! Moreover (and this is the fun part), he is having s NEW cake every day! (see below the explanation)
Don't have time now, but will come back later to show you the demonstration arriving to the correct figure.
And this number has to take into account the followings:
a)number of games each players is playing per day. Why per day? Because from each player psychological perspective, the pause between gaming sessions will reset the series. If one had 24 games, ended with 10 having the coin and next day starting with 10 games having the coin, he will never say HEY I GOT THE COIN 20 times in a row. He will say I had 2 times 10 coins in a row!.
b) the game age of player. It is correct to say that older players are having a higher chance to have encountered more times the 20 coins event.
This would be only a virtual demonstration cause you put it wrong from the very first beginning!
The correct problem would be:
Which is the probability for a player to have the coin more than "N" games out of his daily "M" games in his X days since he is playing Gwent? And the answer will derive into something similar to a Gauss Bell (my first guess is that it is one indeed) if one wants to aggregate the result for the whole player base.
You were double time wrong in your pseudo demonstration, by missing an important aspect of all those players posting about the coins. None of them was saying that it happened ONCE. They were all dazzled about having this "luck" multiple game sessions!!!! And that means P(N/M) x P (N/M) x ........x P (N/M).
Coming back to the topic, your comparison is like one between a bird and a melon, the common point being that they are of organic nature! You compared a double sided possible result with a 10 sided one. Also you mixed the number of players posting their findings on forums with the player base. How many active writers on such topics of the forum? 100? Guess I overestimate. How many casual players in the player base? 90%? They don't really care!. How many taking a look on probabilities? Insignificant. And so on......Most of the players just play the game as is, as long as the game indulges them without questioning anything!
Even if you take the individual unique series of mysterious events for the only 5 players posting here the numbers are off the normal probabilities grid!
