New videos on Gameinformer.com

[cmdr_silverbolt]

Henselt will use any objection he can raise, the man's fathered many bastards as he admits, one of whom will probably take the Kaedweni throne unless he gets busy in the sack soon. Geralt knows crap all about royal precedents, excepting if they're Strigas. Exactly my point, they get an angelic figurehead supported by a regent who has previously defeated Nilfgaard and outplayed Menno Coehoorn, it's win-win.

Your scenario relies too much on the touchy-feely sentiment of people for a bastard who will personally not be able to help them against invading foes. That said, it's completely likely for this to occur because Natalis is fan favorite, and I am guessing so is Anais. What ultimately will matter is not how cute Anais is, but how good a leader Natalis will be during this time of strife.

Reasonably, I would expect Kimbolt to put both Natalis and Anais in their place. Again, Anais' claim to the throne is not strong enough, and neither is the evidence against Kimbolt.

 

[Aver]

Not nearly on the same scale. Why?

Because he's the Stern. Everyone fears crossing him, esp with his private force the Order killing anyone he orders them to.

And because he's an astute politician and manipulator who can play with the system to make sure they remain in line.

And finally, because he can offer them something. Natalis doesn't have anything to offer (he's in debt himself).

They don't need Natalis to offer anything. With Natalis they can take EVERYTHING after war. They know that he is weak politician and that they can take whole diner instead of scraps that Radovid will throw them.

And Radovid is not so carrot guy as scenes where his troops are executing Temerian nobles showed. It was presented like Radovid is "obey or die" type of person. You can never know what will happen with you in future when someone like him is ruling the country. On other hand plenty of traitors had good life after they helped Nilfgaard.

 

[Blothulfur]

Me touchy feely sentimental, wow i've always been accused of being a mercenary bastard by everybody who knows me. But seriously, i'm not being naive, obviously Anais can stand as a figurehead and obviously Kimbolt and others will try to worm their way into the position of Interrex, perhaps by buying up John Natalis' debts or demonstrating his lack of political nous.

Thus the new regent rules Temeria with a perfect puppet to legitimise their rule, Anais' claim to the throne is after all one of the strongest in the land. And if an accident should befall her before her majority, while the Interrex has a good alibi and a logical patsy framed for it, then the ruling regent can step in all the easier after years of ruling anyway.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

They don't need Natalis to offer anything. With Natalis they can take EVERYTHING after war. They know that he is weak politician and that they can take whole diner instead of scraps that Radovid will throw them.

And as I already told you. It takes one nobles or a group to figure he can take everything when everyone else is busy to screw up the entire thing, because nobles are not the rational actors you think they are. And it takes a few nobles to decide they don't like how Natalis is not prioritizing defense of their own lands.
And it takes a few nobles coming to the realization that Natalis offers no guarantee of victory (or anything for that matter), whereas Nilfgaard can offer them much.

And Radovid is not so carrot guy as scenes where his troops are executing Temerian nobles showed. It was presented like Radovid is "obey or die" type of person. You can never know what will happen with you in future when someone like him is ruling the country. On other hand plenty of traitors had good life after they helped Nilfgaard.

He executed a select few people. He couldn't control Redania like that if he simply killed everyone.

Unlike Natalis, Radovid actually has carrots to offer. And they will think twice before betraying him lest the Order comes knocking on their doors. And Radovid has enough force and will to impose any military decision on them.

So if nobles were to decide between Natalis, who can't offer anything or scare them enough, or Nilfgaard that can offer them a lot, I suspect a number will pick Nilfgaard.
But if on the otherhand nobles had to decide between Nilfgaard, who can offer them something, and Radovid, who can offer them something as much as Nilfgaard and annihilate them if they dare to disobey (and they are in his turf), nobles are less likely to turn on him.

All that, plus the thing you keep ignoring. Political acumen. Radovid knows how to play the game, Natalis does not. Radovid can easily manipulate nobles to do his bidding. Natalis couldn't manipulate a sheep if his life depended on it.

 

[cmdr_silverbolt]

Me touchy feely sentimental, wow i've always been accused of being a mercenary bastard by everybody who knows me.

First time for everything Your scenarios are certainly plausible, and really the person who offers the most stability will be considered as the unequivocal leader. Unless Kimbolt does something sketchy, that person will be Natalis for sure. And I agree that the loyalist Natalis will prop up Anais, and support her claim to the throne.

 

[Blothulfur]

Thank you, always enjoy a good rational argument with a logical opponent.

 

[Aver]

Well KOP, that what you are talking about is world where everyone aside from main figures are complete idiots that only think about profit without thinking about consequences. Your vision that you describe is like everyone is ready to jump into volcano just because someone has thrown a penny there. You describe world where nobody aside from main characters have any positive values. You describe world where only main figures can play game of wits. I believe that world of TW is not THAT cliche.

I guess we have different visions of the world in TW. I believe that minor characters aren't just brainless background that doesn't have other plans than earn money. I believe that minor characters are so well crafted as they were in books where even minor characters had plans and weren't easy to manipulate.

Yes, maybe we will see that every noble in Temeria is easy to manipulate idiot who doesn't care about his own country. But maybe it will be as Geralt said - common enemy unites people.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

Well KOP, that what you are talking about is world where everyone aside from main figures are complete idiots that only think about profit without thinking about consequences.

Not necessarily idiots. Short sighted yes. Welcome to real life and politics. Studying history grants you that perspective.

They don't all need to be idiots. I said it takes only one, whether it be an idiot, or an opportunist, or a gullible fool, and the entire thing is screwed.

And that's why I added different factors such as fear, incentives, coordination....etc. So that even those who can play a game of wits, can still choose Nilfgaard over Natalis (Maravel for instance is no idiot).

It's precisely because it is The Witcher we are talking about, that no simplistic patriotism is going to somehow magically create a united front. Or that just by having a common enemy, people will hug it out. It's precisely the Witcher universe that had Aedirnian nobles who rejected Stennis despite clearly being the sole legitimate heir, ask Henselt to invade their own land and kill their own compatriots, to preserve their own power, or Redanian lords lick Nilfgaard boots for their own self-interest as Redania almost collapsed in civil war.

It's precisely The Witcher that grasps the *necessity* of political acumen in any war. Because they have writers who actually understand what they are writing about.

 

[cmdr_silverbolt]

that no simplistic patriotism is going to somehow magically create a united front. Or that just by having a common enemy, people will hug it out.

I will say the same thing to you as I was to another poster: during war time all that matters is survival. We can't be sure about what each individual noble is going to do, but we can be sure that each one of them will want to live.

It's more likely for a fragmented country to unite and fight together in war time, especially when facing an enemy like the Black Ones with whom they have had a turbulent history. In this case, it's not so easy for these nobles to jump ship.

That said, I agree with the views of a another poster (Costin, I think it was) that it's likely that Vizima is the only Temerian stronghold left to be conquered at the start of W3.

 

[CostinRaz]

It's more likely for a fragmented country to unite and fight together in war time

Ever heard of the Byzantine Empire where the nobles where killing each other while the enemy was the gates? Same thing happened with Rome before and before with the Chinese during the Three Kingdoms.

So this notion that people will all united and fight together is not rooted in historical reality, far from it.

 

[umair2012]

I`m pretty sure one of the videos said that in the 10 months since Nilfgard crossed the Yaruga that he war had reached a stalemate . Or maybe i heard it wrong .

Nope . They said 6 months .

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

I will say the same thing to you as I was to another poster: during war time all that matters is survival. We can't be sure about what each individual noble is going to do, but we can be sure that each one of them will want to live.

It's more likely for a fragmented country to unite and fight together in war time, especially when facing an enemy like the Black Ones with whom they have had a turbulent history. In this case, it's not so easy for these nobles to jump ship.

And you assume that Nilfgaard only offers death?

You think an Empire of that size could exist if it simply massacred all local forces in every land it conquered? No Empire is based, especially one that lasted as long as Nilfgaard, on the sword alone.

The Empire can offer these nobles a way out. An arrangement where they can keep their lands (or increase them at the detriment of another lord -> manipulate them into fighting each other), by swearing fealty to Emhyr. That's why Maravel is allied with them, and why many nobles throughout the North have consistently allied with them. The Empire has much to offer.

So no, the nobles are not faced between the choice of survival or death in the way you think of. Many are very likely to see opposing Nilfgaard as death, and aiding them as survival.

Radovid however can make picking Nilfgaard and death be synonymous.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

Ever heard of the Byzantine Empire where the nobles where killing each other while the enemy was the gates? Same thing happened with Rome before and before with the Chinese during the Three Kingdoms.

So this notion that people will all united and fight together is not rooted in historical reality, far from it.

OR how about Christian Kingdoms in the Iberian peninsula fighting each other, while the Umayyad Emirate was chilling? Or when the Muslims of Andalus started fighting each other, when the Christian kingdoms started to become stronger?

History is so filled with examples of short sightedness.

 

[Blothulfur]

So do you think Nilfgaard would stop at the Pontar, sue for peace and attempt to consolidate and secure what they have taken, or sweep on to take advantage of momentum?

 

[CostinRaz]

So do you think Nilfgaard would stop at the Pontar, sue for peace and attempt to consolidate and secure what they have taken, or sweep on to take advantage of momentum?

I don't think they will stop and even if they try and do that neither Radovid or Henselt are such short-sighted fools as to not realize that if they allow NIlfgaard to get away with that in the long run their kingdoms are doomed anyway.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

So do you think Nilfgaard would stop at the Pontar, sue for peace and attempt to consolidate and secure what they have taken, or sweep on to take advantage of momentum?

It depends how well they perform.

If say they defeat both the Redanian and Kaedweni armies in open battle in Temeria / Aedirn, then I don't see why they would stop unless they are having logistical problems or their victories were Pyrrhic in nature. If on the other hand Redanian and Kaedweni forces are still mostly intact and their defense fortified, then yea I could see Nilfgaard slowing down the pace.

What I do believe is very likely though, is that once they reach the Pontar, they'd try to turn Redania and Kaedwen (and what's left of the North) against each other via diplomacy.
Also they'd tamper with domestic politics and try to find allies.

EDIT' of course if Letho is still alive. Well

 

[cmdr_silverbolt]

Those are good examples, but only if we neglect the unique circumstances which resulted in the fragmentation and fall of each of those empires. Our case is much simpler, and does not involve inherent military weakness or rooted factionalism: we have a bunch of nobles without a king, and the strongest of them see themselves as contenders. Unless the nobles dwindled their man power fighting against each other, then we cannot assume military weakness. And we cannot assume that all nobles have an equal chance to the throne since that is most unlikely; therefore, the incidence of factionalism is also expected to be relatively reduced. Now introduce an evading foe, one which had previously caused this country much grief. It's reasonable to expect, then, that some leaders will arise and seek to protect them and theirs, and the weaker ones will fall in line behind them. Now if we accept that they're all fighting for a common goal, then it's likely for them to unite and fight together.

That said, it's also equally likely for these nobles to have shat bricks at the thought of the invaders, and put their nose in it. I still agree with you that Vizima is probably the only Temerian stronghold left standing.

 

[Blothulfur]

Letho and his cadre of viper apprentices?

Personally I think we'll see both loyalists and opportunists arising in the war, no matter if it's the Interrex or Radovid ruling, the north is after all a brutal and uncivilised place compared to pleasant and prosperous imperial provinces such as Toussaint.

 

[cmdr_silverbolt]

So no, the nobles are not faced between the choice of survival or death in the way you think of. Many are very likely to see opposing Nilfgaard as death, and aiding them as survival.

Yea, that's a possibility.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

Letho and his cadre of viper apprentices?

Yep.
I'd laugh in grief and excitement if they make Letho kill Radovid.

I love so many opposing people in this universe, I'm bound to get my heart broken!
Radovid, Philippa, Emhyr, Letho...etc

Personally I think we'll see both loyalists and opportunists arising in the war, no matter if it's the Interrex or Radovid ruling, the north is after all a brutal and uncivilised place compared to pleasant and prosperous imperial provinces such as Toussaint.

Of course. However I believe Radovid is much better equipped to deal with opportunists (including enticing them) than Natalis is.

Honestly, I really don't think CDPR would just have a "hero general" save Temeria without any political skill. I mean they are not bioware (minus Origins as far as Loghain is concerned, he deconstructed that trope). Unless Natalis turned out to be some hidden politician, but I doubt that.