Philippa Eilhart is fascinating,Why I support her Lodge.SPOILERS

[HeelPower]

Philippa Eilhart is fascinating,Why I support her Lodge.SPOILERS

Don’t get me wrong, I think that sorceresses methods are highly flawed.Their excessive secrecy works not for them.They think things are too calculable when sometimes they aren't.Demevand's Regicide is a good example of their plans going out of control.They tend to think only in terms of control and are unable to mingle well with society.But this is a result of a long history of events and the fault of both the magic community and society as a whole.

What interests me the most in Philippa's version of ruling isn't her kindness or purity but the fact that its somewhat similar to a modern society rather than a dictatorship.

The way I see it, philippa "uses" saskia because she is smart enough to realize that she can't win a popularity contest.Being a sorceress and somewhat of an outcast, she NEEDS saskia so she can conduct herself in tandem with popular opinion.

So let's compare the lodge to the kings we saw in the story.

Henselt sees himself the last of the unicorns and the last person in the north capable of having a great influence on LM.He is a foolish enough to wage war on pontar despite the horrific incident that occurred in his previous invasion.He is filthy and justifies ves' rape as an honor to her.

Prince Stennis.Well is he really any better than the philippa-saskia duo ? He looked down on everyone in vergen and , like henselt , thinks it simply his right to rule because he is of noble blood.

Under Foltest, temeria is in constant strife.In TW1 and TW2, I saw Foltest as a very incompetent ruler.His foolish siege on la vallette is a result of his own profligacy.

Radovid is willing to use ANY form of power to his aid, including the order who are maniacal and racist.

In LM , the sorceresses resort to using the dragon to burn everyone sure ,but what happens when the witch hunt ensues ? Innocent people are burnt , murdered and raped simply if they associate with magic.So I don't see how this is any better or worse than what the rulers of the north would do.

This dialogue is amazing from the moment you free her and supplements my view on Philippa :

Philippa : "As a bulwark, a defense against Nilfgaard.After years of chaos and destruction, the time has come to build.We wish to rule-yes.Where is the fault in that ?Everyone wants to rule! and I know how to do that- better than any monarch in this city"

Geralt : "You can't hope to win the common folk's trust.Humans will never accept a sorceress queen"

Iorveth : "Non humans won't either.Given what that old hag Findabair has achieved."

Philippa : "They all believe in saskia, they all trust her.The girl is born a leader, yet she has no political instincts.She's charismatic but not cunning , courageous but not fierce, she is just but lacks the required cruelty.."

Iorveth : " She is your very opposite"

Philippa : " Perhaps..together we would be unstoppable"

Should Philippa comeback in TW3, I hope there is some option to help her plans come to fruition and see their results.Unless, the developers are intent on portraying her as a villian , which I don't think she is.As opposed to someone like dethmold, Philippa isn't scum ,but rather someone with a higher set of goals.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Aaaa, awesome topic! I love Philipa!

But, let's just not idealize her. Northern kings are far from being saints and do a lot of bad things. Well, when I am done with the North on my Xth playthrough of TW2, it is always only Radovid who is left standing. He is the Northern king I like the most, so I am pretty much happy with the outcome.

The problem is not who have more or less right to rule. Their timing is real crappy. The last thing the North as a geopolitical region needed is a regicide and chaos. Demovend would have been dead even without our friendly neighborly Nilfgaardian helping hand, and Aedirn would have been plunged in chaos in the worst possible moment. Five years after the war, and all there is is famine, disease, and strife. I would think people who really cared about their homeland would get together to rebuild and bring some measure of peace and stability. But the Lodge behaved exactly like the emperor who is an open adversary and needs peace only as time for a preparation for a new invasion.

As I see it, the North is doomed, unless Radovid manages to gather all four kingdoms under his banners (or Radovid and Henselt split the North between them). Nilfgaard is invading from without, and the Lodge wages a hidden invasion from within. They both want the same thing - to take Northern territories as their own, does not matter at what cost. The rule of sorceress is no more appealing to the people of the North, non-humans included, as the rule of Nilfgaard. But, as I see it, who cares? I am all for the North becoming a part of the empire, and thus I see the Lodge as a competitor, and a rather capable one. But even if they may conquer all or part of it if they are capable enough, it would be simply silly to claim that Nilfgaard, or the Lodge, have any right to rule the North. They are no more entitled than any invader. Popular support would give some legitimacy, but, as we know, it is a given that they have none, and a deception (passing a golden dragon, essentially a monster, for a human queen) makes it even worse.

 

[goopit]

The Lodge doesn't give a shit about the people they'd rule. They don't care about magic or other sorceresses either, If Sile and Philippa confessed and just sacrificed themselves then the subsequent massacres and lynchings would not have happened.

but I do agree with you if they succeeded they would have made the North or at least upper Aedirn strong, but there probably wouldn't be enough time to act as Nilfgaard has already crossed the Pontar.

Foltest was the strongest king equal to Radovid in a way. He wasn't idiotic, he had the strongest realm before he died, also he was loved by his people and army. He was there fighting with his men during the siege, he would've sent Nilfgaard running.

 

[HeelPower]

Aaaa, awesome topic! I love Philipa!

But, let's just not idealize her. Northern kings are far from being saints and do a lot of bad things. Well, when I am done with the North on my Xth playthrough of TW2, it is always only Radovid who is left standing. He is the Northern king I like the most, so I am pretty much happy with the outcome.

Radovid is most cunning and dangerous.I also believe he is the most powerful of northerners.

The problem is not who have more or less right to rule. Their timing is real crappy. The last thing the North as a geopolitical region needed is a regicide and chaos. Demovend would have been dead even without our friendly neighborly Nilfgaardian helping hand, and Aedirn would have been plunged in chaos in the worst possible moment. Five years after the war, and all there is is famine, disease, and strife. I would think people who really cared about their homeland would get together to rebuild and bring some measure of peace and stability. But the Lodge behaved exactly like the emperor who is an open adversary and needs peace only as time for a preparation for a new invasion.

Absolutely.Their biggest most fatal error was killing demevand.But let's be real ; had the lodge not asked for the witchers' help surely someone else in the north would have.Someone like dethmold would have asked letho to kill demevand to serve his hungry king ,and I wouldn't put it past henselt either(even though he claims to put honor in battle above all else)

As I see it, the North is doomed, unless Radovid manages to gather all four kingdoms under his banners (or Radovid and Henselt split the North between them). Nilfgaard is invading from without, and the Lodge wages a hidden invasion from within. They both want the same thing - to take Northern territories as their own, does not matter at what cost. The rule of sorceress is no more appealing to the people of the North, non-humans included, as the rule of Nilfgaard. But, as I see it, who cares? I am all for the North becoming a part of the empire, and thus I see the Lodge as a competitor, and a rather capable one.

very interesting.So you actually think Nilfgaard's anexing the north is inevitable and favorable ? I am interested to know more about Nilfgaard.I assume we will learn in TW3 ,but what's up with the massive enmity between the North and south ?(I haven't read the books)

But even if they may conquer all or part of it if they are capable enough, it would be simply silly to claim that Nilfgaard, or the Lodge, have any right to rule the North. They are no more entitled than any invader. Popular support would give some legitimacy, but, as we know, it is a given that they have none, and a deception (passing a golden dragon, essentially a monster, for a human queen) makes it even worse.

again another mistake.Rather than earning genuine trust they resort to scheming and deceit.

The Lodge doesn't give a shit about the people they'd rule. They don't care about magic or other sorceresses either, If Sile and Philippa confessed and just sacrificed themselves then the subsequent massacres and lynchings would not have happened.

I feel that is unlikely.Massacres would ensue regardless of whether sile/philippa hand in themselves.It would be known that sorceresses killed the kings of the north.It was already over when their secret was out.

Foltest was the strongest king equal to Radovid in a way. He wasn't idiotic, he had the strongest realm before he died, also he was loved by his people and army. He was there fighting with his men during the siege, he would've sent Nilfgaard running.

How so ? The victory at brenna was a joint effort ,and perhaps the key point was henselt joining the northern fight.Adda wreaked havoc , the order grew out of control , human-elven struggles worsen , two assassination attempts to take the king's life, civil war results out of his romantic escapades....

I really can't see foltest as a powerful leader...Liked/popular among his people ? maybe ,but competent leader or maintainer of order he isnot.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

Their mistake was not in killing Demavend. Had he been kept alive, Aedirn would have slowly crumbled under the weight of civil war. Eliminating him to quickly establish a state and stabilize the situation (there is no doubt Philippa would have been able to stabilize the situation, which she does in Temeria) is a far better outcome. I am in full support of the Lodge's plans as far as Aedirn was concerned.

Their mistake was in trusting Letho, but it's an understandable mistake considering he's a very good manipulative bastard.

In any case, I absolutely adore Philippa Eilhart (just like I adore Radovid) and I consider myself a fan of the Lodge of Sorceresses.

Shameless self-promotion, but I encourage you OP to read my Politics of the Witcher 2 articles that talk about Philippa in some depth. Particularly the fifth and sixth.

 

[HeelPower]

Their mistake was not in killing Demavend. Had he been kept alive, Aedirn would have slowly crumbled under the weight of civil war. Eliminating him to quickly establish a state and stabilize the situation (there is no doubt Philippa would have been able to stabilize the situation, which she does in Temeria) is a far better outcome. I am in full support of the Lodge's plans as far as Aedirn was concerned.

Their mistake was in trusting Letho, but it's an understandable mistake considering he's a very good manipulative bastard.

In any case, I absolutely adore Philippa Eilhart (just like I adore Radovid) and I consider myself a fan of the Lodge of Sorceresses.

Shameless self-promotion, but I encourage you OP to read my Politics of the Witcher 2 articles that talk about Philippa in some depth. Particularly the fifth and sixth.

WOW Hello there...you are responsible for this amazing work of art ? http://knightofphoenix.tumblr.com/post/53109988983/the-politics-of-the-witcher-2-part-6-why-do-they

Thank you for writing it and its thanks to your work that I gained deeper understanding of the story in the games.This entire thread is inspired by your work so worry not.I read it and re-read it.

I was hoping to talk to you one day.As I feel you can answer any question in the story and enrich my understanding.

Yes, it was a mistake in the sense that it opened the way for letho's insanity.That was a major oversight by the lodge.

Again, I cannot stress enough how well made your work is.I hope you continue to write about every aspect of this series moving forward.

On a side not, I have a side question regarding Triss' role in the lodge.Its something that's not clear at all to me.

 

[sfinx]

I agree with author.

She is awesome. I know, there is probably more players than readers and unfortunatelly game showed her in quite bad light.

But still ... if I take it from Geralt's point of view, she was really kind. She didn't kill him - strange for person, who should be bad and always get rid of all obstacles, isn't it?

She is maybe strict and some of her acts are not good, but I can see there at least lesser evil.

Simply - I can count the number of dead bodies bahind acts of each side or compare other aspects. And if I also compare beauty and personality, there is no other choice Lodge acted as I would act - their attempt to make their own state is nothing bad. Their sacrifice in Sodden was very noble, their plans on defence during second war were necessary - but some people just think, they will always come, when someone calls them and give them order to do something, to protect them, but after that, those heroes should return to their towers and stay out of politics - that is simply rubbish.

I don't give a sh.. about some royal blood, I respect true power and abilities and Philippa and others well deserved this recpect and also Geralt should be thankful for their patience and kind methods they used in his case. He can be grateful for how Philippa kept her word, how she was mercy and how she at least tried to exlpain her acts. Also for the truth he learnt from Fringilla. For saving life from Tissaia and Triss. For life of Yennefer, who was saved by Francesca. Etc.

 

[Blothulfur]

I'm also immensely impressed by Philippa, morally she's in exactly the same group as the other northern rulers, but pursuing a more democratic process is worthy in and of itself, and even the chance of ending the pointless tit for tat killing between humans and non-humans is a goal worth fighting for. Obviously those dreams have been destroyed by Letho and Nilfgaard, but in the best situation Saskia may still be ruling the Pontar when the Black Ones invade, a seed of hope for a new kind of Aedirn.

Of course Saskia may still be under the Lodge's enslavement, and that is of course a sad thing for both the Pontar and the Northern Kingdoms. However she has a fair few people who will be trying to free her, and i'm hopeful that she will be freed. I still think the Lodge has a part to play in the coming conflict, whatever that may be, and they will now strike from hiding with less vulgar manipulation and showmanship, as they should have before.

What impressed me most of all in the games was her quick adjustment and intelligent response to discovering Saskia's true nature, we discover this in one look when we look back at the scene where she emerges from the sickhouse. A subtle and beautiful scene that shows us just how clever she can be, and all of the tasks she has the two most dangerous and clever opponents in Vergen perform just cements my admiration. I'm pretty sure she wanted royal blood just for the chance of the Prince being killed for it.

Edit: However as others have said her methods are disgusting and taint her accomplishments, a lot of people may countenance murder when it's not directed at them, but my Geralt doesn't.

 

[Cs__sz__r]

How so ? The victory at brenna was a joint effort ,and perhaps the key point was henselt joining the northern fight.Adda wreaked havoc , the order grew out of control , human-elven struggles worsen , two assassination attempts to take the king's life, civil war results out of his romantic escapades....

I really can't see foltest as a powerful leader...Liked/popular among his people ? maybe ,but competent leader or maintainer of order he isnot.

Joint effort or not he was still a key player in the battle. Keep in mind he was not in his kingdom during the Order/Squirrel war until the end and he's not the only one that has problems with Elven uprisings. We're limited to what we know by a limited world. It also wasn't until the end that the upper echelons of The Order showed their true colours. The assassination attempts were no plans of his own people but an outside source.

The "civil war" by baroness LaValette is not an all out civil war, yes his escapades may have caused it but it is merely a single barony breaking their oath of fealty and uprising. He won his battle and restored order there. We don't really get the opinions of his people for him but the soldiers seem to respect their king.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Their mistake was not in killing Demavend. Had he been kept alive, Aedirn would have slowly crumbled under the weight of civil war. Eliminating him to quickly establish a state and stabilize the situation (there is no doubt Philippa would have been able to stabilize the situation, which she does in Temeria) is a far better outcome. I am in full support of the Lodge's plans as far as Aedirn was concerned.

Gee, here is an analysis of Saskia and her approach. This is the worst any leader can do, and something I consider inexcusable. I posted it in another thread, reposting here as relevant.

Philippa and Sile were the ones who made this rebellion possible (that's why they commissioned assassination of Demovend), even though if not for dumb luck, it was doomed, and all those peasants, dwarves and elves were herded into slaughter. A small detail, one of many that makes TW2 a complete awesomeness plot-wise. Recall dialogue with Ves on Roche's path: "A popular uprising will never defeat a professional army. I know this, you know this, Henselt knows this. I wonder why Saskia does not".
This is true even on Iorveth path because Henselt was defeated not by Saskia's forces. Conspiracy succeeded, his nobles refused to go into battle, and he went to Vergen with a small number of troops. Essentially, he was defeated by Foltest, who devised this plan, and Roche, who executed it. None of it was Saskia's doing, she simply got lucky. She charismatically gained a lot of followers who were following her blindly into a hopeless siege and massacre. On Roche's path it was exactly what happened - Henselt went in with a full army, and we got a nice scene in epilogue of all our dwarven friends being hanged. On Iorveth path her rebellion was saved by dumb luck, but she did not even have enough common sense to realize that judging by her behavior on a summit.

I would have forgiven her if she had gambled with her life as well, or if she and sorceresses tried to save as many people as possible by teleporting them, or her truning into the dragon and covering their escape when Vergen fall. But she did not. She, Philipa and Sile had a way out - they teleported/flew away, while their followers have been slaughtered. So, to answer Ves, I would say - she simply does not give a damn. Whatever happens, she will always have her way out. Iorveth path presents her like a frigging hero, while in reality she gambled with people's lives with stakes being absolutely not in her favor. How a hell such arrogance and stupidity make anyone a hero, even if they have nice boobs and shapely ass, is beyond my comprehension.

So what we have here is a leader who uses deception about her true nature, who knows that their fight is pretty much doomed, but she insists on staying in Vergen and fighting. I would have respected her if not for the fact that she flew away and left people to die. That plan for a Free Pontar? It succeeded on Iorveth path not because of what they have done, but only because the conspiracy wasn't busted. To kill Demovend because he was a bad king, and then to do such a vile and incompetent thing as a little war with Henselt? Sorry, but I do not see Saskia being any better than Demovend as a strategist, or that she cares for people any better. She surely talks a lot about freedom, but other than herding masses into an inevitable slaughter it does nothing, and essentially worse than any magic spell.

You know I see it from my lowly d'hoine perspective. There high and mighty sorceresses who are nearly immortal, always find suckers to fight and die for their cause. Does not matter how many are wasted, there is a lot more where it came from, that's why it does not matter that there may be no chances of success at all. That's life, masses get screwed all the time by charismatic leaders, but this is no reason to call this "playing roulette with Henselt" a good strategy.

 

[anisa1273]

I agree with author.

She is awesome. I know, there is probably more players than readers and unfortunatelly game showed her in quite bad light.

But still ... if I take it from Geralt's point of view, she was really kind. She didn't kill him - strange for person, who should be bad and always get rid of all obstacles, isn't it?

She is maybe strict and some of her acts are not good, but I can see there at least lesser evil.

Simply - I can count the number of dead bodies bahind acts of each side or compare other aspects. And if I also compare beauty and personality, there is no other choice

Lodge acted as I would act - their attempt to make their own state is nothing bad. Their sacrifice in Sodden was very noble, their plans on defence during second war were necessary - but some people just think, they will always come, when someone calls them and give them order to do something, to protect them, but after that, those heroes should return to their towers and stay out of politics - that is simply rubbish.

I don't give a sh.. about some royal blood, I respect true power and abilities and Philippa and others well deserved this recpect and also Geralt should be thankful for their patience and kind methods they used in his case. He can be grateful for how Philippa kept her word, how she was mercy and how she at least tried to exlpain her acts. Also for the truth he learnt from Fringilla. For saving life from Tissaia and Triss. For life of Yennefer, who was saved by Francesca. Etc.

i agree is not many readers for now these day... , and a new players just play and said ' the lodge is a bad person ' that is no reason at all

philippa she is a most noble character who sacrifice her self for a high cause like she did in sodden hill, their did many good thing in the past and i think the lodge is the most lesser evil in TW world

the people always said the lodge went power & too ambition that true , because their not like that f"cking king 'who was born with everything ' the lodge need to find it for their own . and that is a point that a new players ( who did read books) may think them is a villain or selfish

For me philippa ( lodge )is not bad at all , and if all you guy here looks in to this matter ,apart from yennefer & triss , philippa was also the one who save our geralt ass with many time ( 2 or 3 time now i think

). both in a game & books, and if not because of her, he may not see ciri ( in the last books ) or even survive until this day... we should give her some respect ,


( i hope their will be a full decision on support the lodge plan ...because am very hope so

)

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

Vivax

I am not talking about Saskia, I am talking about Philippa Eilhart. Saskia's rebellion against Henselt happened before the Lodge knew about her. It was only after Saskia's military successes, that the Lodge sought to hijack and control Saskia's rebellion. The rebellion as such was a fait accompli that the Lodge had to deal with, not something they orchestrated. In this situation, where Demavend's regime was on the verge of inevitable collapse, the most optimal thing for the Lodge to do is eliminate him, end the civil war quickly, gamble and try to protect Vergen, and then impose the new state as fait accompli in the Conference of Loc Muinne. This is in the context of Radovid imposing a stranglehold on Philippa, who was pushed into a corner.

Second of all, you forget that Saskia was controlled by Philippa when she fled Vergen. aka, it was Philippa who decided they had to escape, Saskia was incapable of disobeying because of the curse. So I do not see how one could rant against Saskia for this, your target would be Philippa and obviously she views Vergen as expendable. And rightfully so, her plan for Loc Muinne could still proceed.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Let's think about what would realistically happen after Demovend's death. It was virtually a certainty that Henselt will use chaos in Aedirn to his advantage and invade in order to take Upper Aedirn. It is virtually a certainty that Foltest would not like it, turn his troop east after he dealt with La Valettes and clash with Henselt by either supporting Stennis, or trying to annex Aedirn. So realistically the Lodge would have faced two armies going at it, while they got nothing at all. Luckily for them Foltest died and temerian army was out of the picture, but it was not something they could have predicted.

I don't remember anything about Saskia's rebellion starting before Demovend was killed, otherwise she would have been crashed by Aedernian army. It is way more probably that Saskia used a situation of a kingdom without a king to start her uprising. But peasants are no match to a professional army, and the likelihood of them actually winning on their own is zero.

I understand Emhyr and his reasoning. He had an army, and thus he could take a full advantage out of the Northern mess. But sorceresses without an army? How on earth this assassination was good for them if the most likely by far outcome is the loss of influence in Aedirn after it is annexed or divided? I don't get how it can be considered a wise move when they are simply not ready? It looks like a pure gamble - let's unleash a chaos and see if we can take any advantage. If not, well, better luck next time.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

Let's think about what would realistically happen after Demovend's death. It was virtually a certainty that Henselt will use chaos in Aedirn to his advantage and invade in order to take Upper Aedirn. It is virtually a certainty that Foltest would not like it, turn his troop east after he dealt with La Valettes and clash with Henselt by either supporting Stennis, or trying to annex Aedirn. So realistically the Lodge would have faced two armies going at it, while they got nothing at all. Luckily for them Foltest died and temerian army was out of the picture, but it was not something they could have predicted.

Philippa realistically only had to worry about Henselt's invasion, as the Loc Muinne Conference would have stabilized the situation as far as Foltest was concerned before he was ready after his war on the La Valettes, especially when he would have gotten an adviser selected by Philippa. In addition, we know that the Lodge is influential enough in Temeria (like the blocking of Baron Kimbolt and supporting Natalis), that it is safe to say they would have had a chance to sabotage any immediate reaction.

The gamble was in betting on defeating Henselt, but I think it is a very reasonable assumption to say that Philippa most likely had an idea about the conspiracy within the army. It is rather obvious that he is not popular, and I would find it weird that Philippa wouldn't think that his popularity would diminish even further with Shilard making himself at home in the Kaedweni camp. If Philippa didn't know about the conspiracy way before the invasion, then she almost certainly knew of it when Sile was in the Kaedweni camp.

This makes Philippa's plan a calculated risk. Furthermore:

I don't remember anything about Saskia's rebellion starting before Demovend was killed, otherwise she would have been crashed by Aedernian army.

She crushed the Aedirnian army at the battle of the Dyfne, when Demavend was still alive. I invite you to replay Iorveth's path, it's stated multiple times. Yes, the peasant army leader that doesn't impress you already beat a professional army. As such, Philippa has even more grounds to say that what she did was a calculated risk.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

WOW Hello there...you are responsible for this amazing work of art ? http://knightofphoenix.tumblr.com/post/53109988983/the-politics-of-the-witcher-2-part-6-why-do-they

Thank you for writing it and its thanks to your work that I gained deeper understanding of the story in the games.This entire thread is inspired by your work so worry not.I read it and re-read it.

I was hoping to talk to you one day.As I feel you can answer any question in the story and enrich my understanding.

Yes, it was a mistake in the sense that it opened the way for letho's insanity.That was a major oversight by the lodge.

Again, I cannot stress enough how well made your work is.I hope you continue to write about every aspect of this series moving forward.

On a side not, I have a side question regarding Triss' role in the lodge.Its something that's not clear at all to me.

Oh sorry I completely forgot to answer you.

Thanks I'm flattered by your compliments!

I#m always open to discussing story with Witcher fans, so please feel free

 

[HeelPower]

Oh sorry I completely forgot to answer you.

Thanks I'm flattered by your compliments!

I#m always open to discussing story with Witcher fans, so please feel free />/>

hey!

I was wondering what role does Triss play in regards to the lodge? Its not very clear to me.Why was she seemingly opposed in LM and worried about Sile in flotsam ? Does she not trust them ? Did they have some conflict ?

I don't give a sh.. about some royal blood, I respect true power and abilities and Philippa and others well deserved this recpect and also Geralt should be thankful for their patience and kind methods they used in his case. He can be grateful for how Philippa kept her word, how she was mercy and how she at least tried to exlpain her acts. Also for the truth he learnt from Fringilla. For saving life from Tissaia and Triss. For life of Yennefer, who was saved by Francesca. Etc.

yeah..geralt in particular hasn't seen much negatives from the sorceresses in fact he probably owes them a lot.I agree.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Philippa realistically only had to worry about Henselt's invasion, as the Loc Muinne Conference would have stabilized the situation as far as Foltest was concerned before he was ready after his war on the La Valettes, especially when he would have gotten an adviser selected by Philippa. In addition, we know that the Lodge is influential enough in Temeria (like the blocking of Baron Kimbolt and supporting Natalis), that it is safe to say they would have had a chance to sabotage any immediate reaction.

The gamble was in betting on defeating Henselt, but I think it is a very reasonable assumption to say that Philippa most likely had an idea about the conspiracy within the army. It is rather obvious that he is not popular, and I would find it weird that Philippa wouldn't think that his popularity would diminish even further with Shilard making himself at home in the Kaedweni camp. If Philippa didn't know about the conspiracy way before the invasion, then she almost certainly knew of it when Sile was in the Kaedweni camp.

This makes Philippa's plan a calculated risk. Furthermore:





She crushed the Aedirnian army at the battle of the Dyfne, when Demavend was still alive. I invite you to replay Iorveth's path, it's stated multiple times. Yes, the peasant army leader that doesn't impress you already beat a professional army. As such, Philippa has even more grounds to say that what she did was a calculated risk.

I'll check it out, I don't remember about the battle of the Dyfne. But Aedirn was really screwed if they were unable to defeat peasants, or it was a minor battle.

So, it was a gamble and for them to win it should be that:
1. Foltest does not interfere, even though the sorcerers did not have any influence over him, and after the victory at La Valette his army would follow him unconditionally. Well, given the long history of animosity between him and Henselt (it was Foltest who devised the conspiracy, after all) that would be very unlikely. Also it was Foltest who exiled all mages from Temeria recently, and any attempt to influence him would be probably unsuccessful.

2. Conspiracy succeeds in exactly the right way, and the troops would not follow Henselt. This is something nobody could have predicted or counted upon.

Both of these are very unlikely occurrences, while that Henselt will massacre Saskia's army if he comes with an army was a certainty. Well, for people who wouldn't loose anything and just teleport away it was not a big loss. May be, if we use a game theory, it was a good decision for those who do not stand to loose anything, but may win big.

Present X units
Win Probability 1% +100000 units (their own kingdom)
Loss Probability 99% -0 units (their influence would stay the same given all secrecy of their involvements)

Under such conditions ANY bet is rational because they won't incur any losses. Only the people who die, and the region plunged in chaos.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

hey!

I was wondering what role does Triss play in regards to the lodge? Its not very clear to me.Why was she seemingly opposed in LM and worried about Sile in flotsam ? Does she not trust them ? Did they have some conflict ?

Triss was a member in the Lodge, but she opposed the plan to assassinate Demavend. After that, the Lodge distanced itself from Triss. Or so she says, it's debatable.

 

[HeelPower]

Joint effort or not he was still a key player in the battle. Keep in mind he was not in his kingdom during the Order/Squirrel war until the end and he's not the only one that has problems with Elven uprisings. We're limited to what we know by a limited world. It also wasn't until the end that the upper echelons of The Order showed their true colours. The assassination attempts were no plans of his own people but an outside source.

The "civil war" by baroness LaValette is not an all out civil war, yes his escapades may have caused it but it is merely a single barony breaking their oath of fealty and uprising. He won his battle and restored order there. We don't really get the opinions of his people for him but the soldiers seem to respect their king.

I don't like how foltest took no precautions to ensure his safety.Having been almost killed by a witcher before, he should have been careful not to endanger himself and his subjects like he did in the siege.He was overconfident with geralt (the lucky charm) around him.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

1. Foltest does not interfere, even though the sorcerers did not have any influence over him, and after the victory at La Valette his army would follow him unconditionally. Well, given the long history of animosity between him and Henselt (it was Foltest who devised the conspiracy, after all) that would be very unlikely. Also it was Foltest who exiled all mages from Temeria recently, and any attempt to influence him would be probably unsuccessful.

The Witcher 1 canonically ends with the sorceresses re-establishing their influence in Temeria, as was evident in what they did in TW2.
His army would have been too tired and his logistical capacities exhausted after his war against La Valettes. He would not have been able to mobilize quickly against Saskia, not would it have made much strategic sense. It would have made more sense for him to sabotage Henselt and wait for him to lose.

2. Conspiracy succeeds in exactly the right way, and the troops would not follow Henselt. This is something nobody could have predicted or counted upon.

The conspiracy failed only because of Geralt. That is something no one could predict.
But Henselt's rapprochement with Nilfgaard, and Roche's presence in the Kaedweni camp, makes the conspiracy's
success more likely than not (indeed it succeeds when no one interferes with it). It's not something Philippa could have predicted, but it's an outcome that she could have thought likely, hence calculated risk.

Both of these are very unlikely occurrences, while that Henselt will massacre Saskia's army if he comes with an army was a certainty. Well, for people who wouldn't loose anything and just teleport away it was not a big loss. May be, if we use a game theory, it was a good decision for those who do not stand to loose anything, but may win big.

There was no certainty that Henselt would win, thus your entire attempt at using the game theory falls flat.

- Saskia's army is battle hardened and on the defensive in a siege battle.
- The conspiracy within the army is bolstered by Shilard's presence and Roche's
- There was no way Foltest would have cooperated with Henselt, so Temeria was out of the equation. Indeed, had Foltest been alive, he would have most likely sabotaged Henselt even further.

All these factors make Philippa's plan a calculated risk, and not a blind gambit.

Anyways, as fun as this is, I'd rather spend New Year's partying so I should turn off my phone and keep drinking. Cheers