(Note: Before I say this, understand I am actively arguing against my own fears. So, let's call this "hope".)
I'm beginning to get the gist. It's not a platform meant to unseam the triple-A industry but, rather, combat it. It should, as described, alleviate the encumbrance and expense of distribution almost completely. But only for titles that fit within its framework.
Once Stadia goes live, a title can be (essentially) built on, distributed, and supported by a single system. That system will make itself available to the widest range of hardware possible. To do so...
...it will need to be significantly limited in its application and execution. In order to ensure reliable compatibility between Windows OS, Xbox OS, Sony OS, MacOS, iOS, Linux, Android, possibly freakin' Rust by that point...we're talking a lot of walls and odd angles.
At least...at first.
So, early on, I foresee lots of indie devs with truly focused ideas, plus bigger companies with really cool off-shoot ideas, jumping on-board to target niche audiences. (And, of course, countless, trifling games simply looking to cash in with rubbish.) I don't think it will immediately be able to compete with triple-A studios.
I do think it will start gathering its own following almost at once.
If that doesn't happen, I think it's going to wind up being one of the most colossal failures of all-time. I say this, because it's coming from Google, is global, and is something that a lot of companies will jump on.
Currently we have to guess how it will work as there is not a lot information out there, from what I can see. But looking at their dev site it seem that they currently have support for Unreal and Unity and a lot of common developing tools used in the gaming industry and will keep adding more.
In regards to other engines such as Frostbite or even the one CDPR uses, I can imagine two ways how this works. If we use CDPR as example, they would either have to collaborate with Google getting their engine working with Stadia, should they require support for some custom functionality. Which means that studios like EA, CDPR etc over time will be able to use Stadia much like there is support for Unity and Unreal.
The other way, is that studios have to add certain Stadia functionality to their games so they support it. Much like when you release on Steam, they have certain APIs that allows you to integrate your game with Steam.
So its difficult to say, in the presentation they use Assassins Creed Odyssey as one of the examples. Which I guess weren't original created to run on Stadia. But how easy it was to make it work with it, the story doesn't say
My biggest fear with Stadia is unreasonable pricing running amok, so you have to pay Google for a subscription, and knowing how a lot of the gaming studios work, I think we should expect the worse . And its not unlikely that they want to jump on this as well so you have to pay a subscription fee to them as well with micro transactions and what other stuff they can throw in there. So having to pay Google 10-20$ to use it and maybe 10-20$ to each studio to play their games, (Ain't that what their live services cost now?) you can suddenly end up having to pay quite a lot of money each month, which would not be very desirable then. This doesn't include potential hardware you have to buy to make it work in the first place.
To me the success of this is highly linked to what the total cost of using this is in the end. To high and it will fail.
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