Q1 Earnings call summary and speculation

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On XBSX (lot of playing time, so pretty good estimation)
-Before 1.2 random crashs every 2-3 hours.
-Since 1.2+, no crash at all.
2 month without any crash, It seem to me a great reduction and a significant improvement :)
I had only a couple crashes on PC, none of which were hard crashes from the middle of gameplay. However, the patch notes for the last major release were filled with engine fixes and instances of critical bugs leading to crashes, being fixed. I saw none of those issues, did they not exist before, or is it more likely that a single data point isn't necessarily indicative of the state of the game?

Furthermore, my game became LESS stable after that particular patch. You can cherry-pick anecdotes to support whatever narrative you want.

As for the earnings call, I am highly skeptical of the optimistic extrapolation being made here with the comparison to The Witcher 3. Much like Skyrim, TW3 seems to me like a unique case of a highly successful and enduring IP, that isn't necesarilly going to extend to other installments in the series or other works by the same studio/publisher.

Initial sales were clearly driven by marketing buzz built up over many years, and riding on the unique success of TW3. Now that the game has seen its rather contentious launch, it really remains to be seen whether it will have the kind of staying power enjoyed by TW3 and Skyrim. It strikes me as naive to imagine that Cyberpunk will automatically possess the same lightning-in-a-bottle quality of a game that peeople are still playing years later.

Great analysis on your part. Playing Call of duty Warzone I had hoped CDPR would adopt their methods of microtransactions in the future, combined with multiplayer or AI supported teams focused on single player.
Long term, this is what I would expect to see. The groundwork is there in how the randomized loot and crafting/upgrade systems were implemented in the game. It's clear that this was the intention, and that only the grossly mismanaged development that derailed those plans. Like Bethesda with Fallout 76, CDPR was probably planning to roll out such functionality in a somewhat sequestered multiplayer or always online version of the game.

It would certainly make the most sense if CDPR wants to maintain this game in the long term, and remain profitable. As I hinted above, I don't necessarily see pure sales returning the kinds of profits that CDPR or investors would be happy with, particularly if the game is going to be under development indefinitely.
 
Still with all the disappointment in sales, I think something positive is looming in horizon, with the coming anime for 2022 and multiplayer development, hopefully boosting sales next year, similarly how Witcher 3 gained boost in sales with the Witcher series release.
Are there going to be a multiplayer anyway? I thought it was dropped.

It looks like the Runners of Night City won't be able to team up after all, as Cyberpunk 2077's multiplayer follow-up has been cancelled following a strategy update in which president and CEO Adam Kiciński stated the plans for the game have been “reconsidered.” 31. mar. 2021
 
Are there going to be a multiplayer anyway? I thought it was dropped.

It looks like the Runners of Night City won't be able to team up after all, as Cyberpunk 2077's multiplayer follow-up has been cancelled following a strategy update in which president and CEO Adam Kiciński stated the plans for the game have been “reconsidered.” 31. mar. 2021
Only for the best, MP is in dead last place as far as I'm concerned.
- Next patch (1.3) is coming in "few weeks", could be just before the E3 or potentially in end of this month.
- They are having one-third of staff currently working on new project (unannounced), throughout the year more people will slowly move from patching the game to new game
- Sony will be monitoring the situation with game and there's a process of which metrics CDPR need to fill in order to relist in store and they are in "middle" of getting there
(*speculation* based on what I've seen in PS4 base gameplay in 1.22 I'd say 1.3 could bring it there)
- *speculation* the next gen re-release will likely hit winter holiday 2021
- *speculation* the sales of Cyberpunk 2077 in Q1 2021 reflect on the sales of Witcher 3 Q1 of 2016 and with the re-release, I'd say estimate of 2021 total sale could be in range of 50% of initial sale, could be higher if the next gen upgrade would surprise us
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Sooo somewhere from 13.7 million 2020 sales to ~7 million sales 2021 making it total 20 million sales in end of 2021.

Looking at Witcher 3 initial sales being 8 million, and Cyberpunk being 13.7 million, Witcher 3 selling 30 million in end of 2020 after 5 years, I'd say Cyberpunk 2077 will likely sell ~50 million copies in end of 2025.

Taking into account this game is direct competitor to GTA 5, it selling 30 million it's initial year, and having sold 20 million units in 2020, 7 years later. Cyberpunk selling roughly half of what GTA 5 sold, could indicate the game making 10 million unit sales 5-7 years later if they could keep up pushing more content and making a polished online experience. Of course with game going in sale and having all sorts of "definitive editions" I'd say they'll likely keep making 25% of cost of initial product (GTA 5 selling nowadays 15€ for example), likely earnings from Cyberpunk will be in range of 50-100 million euros yearly as sales may increase while product is being sold in sales.

So it's not question if the game is going to continue being profitable, but whether how much effort CDPR is willing to put into the game, how much will they put focus on multiplayer, perhaps releasing it along with next gen version, which would fit well with the end of the year.


I think a lot of stock holders interest will rely of what will they show in E3, how much will they be able to show progress being made, what will they do with the story and so on.

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According to SimplyWall.St the stock price is 63% undervalued, though the reason is mostly because of their future being very much in the dark, especially with the negative reception game has gotten from both review score bombing and how many felt disappointed on features game had on launch.

Considering the need to shine some positive light for the future of the company, and how there has been talks in past CDPR calls about "starting to turn things around", 60% of staff working on new content, it could be pretty reasonable expectations of seeing some sort of teaser for E3 along with some new gameplay footage of next patch which will likely follow up with 1.2 in "taking steps in right direction" with things like police.

And considering that police driving has been around since launch with help of Mods (though a lot of issues) I'd expect this being brought to live in 1.3 with the patches 1.21 and 1.22 vastly increasing police response in both ability to chase longer and not spawning in unreachable positions, I'd expect some form of vehicle driving to be implemented. If you've been looking at the modding scheme, you'd come to expect things like motorcycles in traffic and police spawning in cars.

According to sources, CDPR has spent over ~100 million euro on Cyberpunk 2077's development when game launched and them no longer going to be spending marketing campaign similar to 2020, I'd say future costs are going to be in the 50 million range for development, along with 100 million for marketing next gen and expansions, and considering Witcher 3 development cost was in the range of 34 million it's likely enough to bring all sorts of new improvements and cool new expansions.


Still with all the disappointment in sales, I think something positive is looming in horizon, with the coming anime for 2022 and multiplayer development, hopefully boosting sales next year, similarly how Witcher 3 gained boost in sales with the Witcher series release.


Tell me what you think, did I get anything wrong you'd want me to correct?
Tbh, I'm not sure what to do with all this. As far as I know they're still working on the game and have planned points in time for new stuff, patch dlc or whatever. If the next patch/update to the game will achieve some kind of milestone I dont know, though there is hoping.
We'll see.
I have very, very little complaints as is so, cant really be bothered with to many speculations about what's gonna be what, and when and for whom. Time will tell anyway.
 
Tell me what you think, did I get anything wrong you'd want me to correct?

You got everything right in your summary. Your speculations are quite hopeful.

TL;DR for the the Q1 Earning (also from other sources than the OP, referring especially to some diagrams not shown in the OP):
There is still no real roadmap, which is worth its name.
There is just some patching around ongoing, which should have been already finished at launch.
All wrapped into some nice PR-speak and toppled with some useless graphics and diagrams.

I thought CDPR could not get any lower in my opinion, but they still manage. I haven't fed my "game tsundoku" behaviour on GOG since CP2077. Now about six months later it is time to remove also GOG Galaxy from my hard drives and remove GOG from my browser favourites.
 
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Are there going to be a multiplayer anyway? I thought it was dropped.

It looks like the Runners of Night City won't be able to team up after all, as Cyberpunk 2077's multiplayer follow-up has been cancelled following a strategy update in which president and CEO Adam Kiciński stated the plans for the game have been “reconsidered.” 31. mar. 2021

Only for the best, MP is in dead last place as far as I'm concerned.

Its not necessarily droped, it only says that cyberpunk multiplayer as SEPERATE projected was droped, thats the important part, orginally multiplayer was seperate project on which another team worked, they even hired another studio to help them with multiplayer project: Digital Scapes.

What is interesting is that when shown the video about changes to CDPR strategy they talked about aquiring studios, and first studio they aquired was the very same Digital Scapes they orignally hired to help with multiplayer. Their new name will be CD Projekt RED Vancouver.

One of Digital Scapes studios specialities was mutiplayer, so there is high chance cyberpunk mutiplayer project will be integrated into main game.
To be fair though multiplayer isnt only speciality of Digital Scapes, according to their homepage those are some of things they are good at:

Video Game Console and PC game development

Multiplayer gameplay programming

Combat and mission design

Animation

Production tools and pipelines

Cloud services

Analytics and R&D
 
Exactly what Culaio said.

It's very strange people to assume they've abandoned multiplayer since they already acquired multiplayer specialized studio, and have been in talks of making slow implementation of multiplayer features where it suits them (not some massive multiplayer dump at one patch).

Only thing that did change in their "plans" what weren't really plans but vague ideas on what they would do with the multiplayer, which had shifted from completely independent title into making the existing title more inclusive.

I think this is good for consumers since I'd expect free to play aspect being toned down a bit and new content perhaps relying more on purchasing expansion packs where you could potentially gain some solo adventure bonus content along with new weapons or modes in multiplayer.

This could be better strategy for revenue growth as well since there's no certainty that CDPR fans would be spending similar amounts of money to free game by CDPR. On top of this there's a lot of looming Government intervention in the market regarding free to play microtransactions. Some countries have straight out banned loot boxes so I'd imagine safer bet + more consumer friendly approach would be welcome.


I for one can't wait to blast some netrunners in some sort of hybrid Overwatch / CSGO type of player vs player game mode. Since this is a shooter and this type of gameplay is very high demand it'd be strange for them not trying to play for the E-sports community in some way.
 
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Its not necessarily droped, it only says that cyberpunk multiplayer as SEPERATE projected was droped, thats the important part, orginally multiplayer was seperate project on which another team worked, they even hired another studio to help them with multiplayer project: Digital Scapes.

What is interesting is that when shown the video about changes to CDPR strategy they talked about aquiring studios, and first studio they aquired was the very same Digital Scapes they orignally hired to help with multiplayer. Their new name will be CD Projekt RED Vancouver.

One of Digital Scapes studios specialities was mutiplayer, so there is high chance cyberpunk mutiplayer project will be integrated into main game.
Fair enough I guess and thanks for the information.

Its matters little to me, as Im not excited for a multiplayer version anyway, but nice for those that are, obviously :)
 
First and foremost, it's a testament to how great TW3 was. Let's be real, TW3 was like 80% of CP2077 marketing and hype, people bought the game "because it's made by the same guys who made TW3".
And the other 20% was because Mike Pondsmith trusted the guys who made the witcher games not to fuck up his brand
 
And the other 20% was because Mike Pondsmith trusted the guys who made the witcher games not to fuck up his brand
Are you suggesting Mike didn't like the way Cyberpunk turned up?

Didn't he defend against accusations that CDPR did him disservice?
 
Let's be real, TW3 was like 80% of CP2077 marketing and hype, people bought the game "because it's made by the same guys who made TW3".

Knowing that game like Valheim can get 5 million early access copies from basically being a Minecraft clone with non-blocky characters, I don't think you necessarily can just blame Witcher 3 from 80% of sales.

I mean it sure must have been some part of building up the hype, but if the game was released by completely unknown studio, the reception could have been even better.

If anything I think Witcher 3 kinda hurt this game's sales because Internet praised that game as some kind of messiah of video games, which it sure was when you think about the scale of the game...
 
At any case, I'm not in 80% nor 20% :(
Whatever the studios, even Mike's advice, a FPP (RPG/Action) in a cyberpunk world, I buy it. Whether it was CDPR, it was just better and I was hopping for a good story well writted (it's done for me) :)
 
Are you suggesting Mike didn't like the way Cyberpunk turned up?

Didn't he defend against accusations that CDPR did him disservice?
No I'm not saying Mike was disappointed with the interpretation, but as a long term cyberpunk fan, I feel that they have done him a massive disservice.

Don't get me wrong I love the game and I can see the passion that went in to the development. Whoever in management took the decision to launch should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

I really hope they take a long hard look at the bonus check and the pile of profits from preorder sales and make the ethical decision to support the game until they have fixed the product and done justice to the reputation of the brand that they traded on.

It was an opportunity to introduce a world that means a lot to me to a new generation that hadn't ever rolled dice or agonised over how to create a campaign. Instead of doing it justice, they delivered a flood of you tube t-pose memes. Mike's world deserved a polished delivery, and yes even if he is still supporting them, they have lost face in my eyes for betraying his trust.

Nothing I've heard from CDPR suggests that they're actually sorry about that.
 
Let's be real, TW3 was like 80% of CP2077 marketing and hype, people bought the game "because it's made by the same guys who made TW3".

No, majority bought the game because they have heard about great cdpr reputation (big amount of cyberpunk players never even played any witcher games nor were interested in them) and truly believed in what was being sold to them pre-release.
 
First and foremost, it's a testament to how great TW3 was. Let's be real, TW3 was like 80% of CP2077 marketing and hype, people bought the game "because it's made by the same guys who made TW3".

I tried Witcher 3, but couldn't get into it (max 20 minutes before I got bored). So it wasn't Witcher that made me interested in CP2077, but the presentation of CP2077 alone that made me pre-order the game (1019 hours). I heard from other gamers about Witcher 3 it was all-that and more, but from my own experience, as Mitch from the Aldecaldos said, "Meh..."
 

ya1

Forum regular
With all respect to op and all their opinions, I find this to be mostly hyper optimistic speculation based on - dare I say - somewhat fringy reception of the product. I'm afraid many people see this in a very different light.

But first, the real question is: why do we even have to speculate? CDPR was lightning fast to release the information on the 13.7 million sales in 2020 but no information on 2021 was ever released. Why would that be if not for the fact that the number is nothing to brag about? Media speculate it is as low as 0.8 million as of June. Last time I checked, W3 was selling better than CP77 on Steam.

When CDPR sold the 13.7 million copies, most of it preorders and day 1 sales, there weren't really selling their product. They were selling their reputation. And the hype it had helped them create.* And soon, when there was very little left of either, the sales became marginal. Therefore I highly doubt that CP77 sales will ever reach 20 million to make it to top 60 bestsellers. Maybe even with the future paid DLC counted as separate copies.

* (Also, they were selling Gibson, Pondsmith, Keanu. The whole literary genre and the Hollywood face of it.)
 

msxyz

Forum regular
Post above from ya1 describes very well the situation from a less 'rose tinted' angle. I would only add that, in addition to number of copies sold, also the price at which these copies are sold matters. As I said before, reputation of CP2077 is unfortunately so tarnished that even people holding out for the 'defenitive version' with all DLCs are probably going to wait till it's sale time or if it hits the baragain bin.

I can see, in the long run, CP2077 approaching 20M copies, but I don't think it will do much good to CDPR financials. On the contrary, I expect next 1-2 years to yield disappointing results like those posted past week, until a new game is released (and the hype cycle restarts - hopefully this time with less anticipation and more satisfaction from the customers)
 
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