@Cubituss sorry for the late answer, but something seemed off to me and I now know what:
The same way with fixed decks you can "win" (or have better chances of winning) if you predict the metagame (what enemies play most) better.
Adding more randomness in the outcome would make this predicting skill less important!
I kind of expected this. And I can still understand why people might think this way, but after analyzing the situation a bit, this is not entirely true! (Except maybe against skellige).
Gedankenexperiment
Lets assumethat whenever you won the first round, you also won the second round with the old passive. (Draw on winning)
Now there are 4 scenarios (opponents) you could have:
1. Playing versus Northern realms
This is the mirror, here they will fight more for the first round, thats in my oppinion fine. I mean the mirror is always balanced and if you have some matchups which play different (fight "only" for first round) this may make it even more interesting to play!
2. Monsters:
If you have always won with the old passive, you will also always win with the new passive!
Here is what happens:
You win round 1.
You pass round 2.(without playing a card)
Enemy plays no card. (If he had a creature in round 1)
Enemy wins round 2.
You draw a card.
Round 3 starts, enemy goes first.
-> You are in the same position as with the old passive. Enemy has the same monster on play as in round 2 and you have drawn the bonus card. Additional the enemy has to go first, which is a small advantage!
So in this scenario the new passive (and or losing the 2nd round with the old) is AT LEAST AS GOOD!
3. Playing versus Scoiatael:
In this scenario having the new passive (or losing the second round with old passive) is even strictly better!
1. You win round 1
2. You pass round 2 (without playing a card)
3. Enemy has to play a card.
4. Enemy wins round 2.
5. You draw a card.
-> Round 3 is the same as round 2 with the old passive, the only difference is, the enemy has 1 card less!
So if you won always using the old passive, you WIN EVEN EASIER NOW!
3. Playing versus Skellige:
Here the new passive is worse then the old one! But the difference is not that big!
1. You win round 1.
2. You pass round 2.
3. Enemy plays his worst card (still on hand).
4. Enemy wins round.
5. You draw a card.
6. Enemy gets best card from his graveyard to hand.
So here you have a worse situation. The enemy trades the worst card in hand with the best (non hero non special) card from his or her graveyard.
This is a gain for him/her (although he or she gets the small disadvantage of having to play first).
Additional skellige might want to do some stuff over 3 turns (like reanimating the same creature 2 times!)
Fazit:
So the old passive was only better against 1/4 of the Factions when winning the first round.
It was worse in 1/4 of the cases (when you really try to win both rounds)
And it is about the same in 1/2 of the cases.
However, the new passive is ALWAYS better when losing the first round.
So overall the new passive is a clear buff, while making it more similar to the skellige passive (also wanting to play 3 rounds for extra card), the difference is Skellige HAS to win 1/2 rounds to get a benefit Northern Reals does not.
Additional remarks:
Wanting to win both rounds even brings additional disadvantages like not being really able to play spies and when the enemy knows you try to win the first round he can a bit abuse it (by playing spies decoys etc.)
Also the old passive would have as mentioned allowed aggro decks (Northern Realms itself or also Monsters as aggro (since they get better against Northern Realms) in additional to more controlish decks (which still would be playable!)
On top of that you could have had matchups which were potentially 1 round matchups, leading to a more diverse gameplay.
I know there would be the psychological effect you mentioned! It does feel win more and it may be discouraging.
However, when players know to play with/against it (and see that this passive is actually not weaker at all!!) they will surely adapt, and this would diversify play!
I think the fun of RNG is that you do not see every time the same and that you cannot plan 100% meaning you have to improvise instead of learning the best tactic by heart. (Theres a reason why most people prefer card games to chess! And why no new games (like chess) without randomness are made).
About the randomness I like most: I would however prefer the animal companion card, if you know beforehand (in hand) which one you get. This way you can plan with it! I prefer random where you get from the random different choices you have to plan with and make the best out of it. It is still random which one you get (draw).
I am not sure if this is really desirable! Lets compare it with Rock Paper Scissors. There are world championships held in it. And of course this is about "luck" but it is also kind of about predicting your opponent.True but the outcome of the battle between those 3 decks would be less predictable.
The same way with fixed decks you can "win" (or have better chances of winning) if you predict the metagame (what enemies play most) better.
Adding more randomness in the outcome would make this predicting skill less important!
The problem with this is that it is a "win more" scenario. After internal tests this was changed to level out frustration
Basically if you win the first round with NR and get another card, you already won the second one as well. The result is that the opposing deck concedes halfway through the first round which is obviously not fun.
I kind of expected this. And I can still understand why people might think this way, but after analyzing the situation a bit, this is not entirely true! (Except maybe against skellige).
Gedankenexperiment
Lets assumethat whenever you won the first round, you also won the second round with the old passive. (Draw on winning)
Now there are 4 scenarios (opponents) you could have:
1. Playing versus Northern realms
This is the mirror, here they will fight more for the first round, thats in my oppinion fine. I mean the mirror is always balanced and if you have some matchups which play different (fight "only" for first round) this may make it even more interesting to play!
2. Monsters:
If you have always won with the old passive, you will also always win with the new passive!
Here is what happens:
You win round 1.
You pass round 2.(without playing a card)
Enemy plays no card. (If he had a creature in round 1)
Enemy wins round 2.
You draw a card.
Round 3 starts, enemy goes first.
-> You are in the same position as with the old passive. Enemy has the same monster on play as in round 2 and you have drawn the bonus card. Additional the enemy has to go first, which is a small advantage!
So in this scenario the new passive (and or losing the 2nd round with the old) is AT LEAST AS GOOD!
3. Playing versus Scoiatael:
In this scenario having the new passive (or losing the second round with old passive) is even strictly better!
1. You win round 1
2. You pass round 2 (without playing a card)
3. Enemy has to play a card.
4. Enemy wins round 2.
5. You draw a card.
-> Round 3 is the same as round 2 with the old passive, the only difference is, the enemy has 1 card less!
So if you won always using the old passive, you WIN EVEN EASIER NOW!
3. Playing versus Skellige:
Here the new passive is worse then the old one! But the difference is not that big!
1. You win round 1.
2. You pass round 2.
3. Enemy plays his worst card (still on hand).
4. Enemy wins round.
5. You draw a card.
6. Enemy gets best card from his graveyard to hand.
So here you have a worse situation. The enemy trades the worst card in hand with the best (non hero non special) card from his or her graveyard.
This is a gain for him/her (although he or she gets the small disadvantage of having to play first).
Additional skellige might want to do some stuff over 3 turns (like reanimating the same creature 2 times!)
Fazit:
So the old passive was only better against 1/4 of the Factions when winning the first round.
It was worse in 1/4 of the cases (when you really try to win both rounds)
And it is about the same in 1/2 of the cases.
However, the new passive is ALWAYS better when losing the first round.
So overall the new passive is a clear buff, while making it more similar to the skellige passive (also wanting to play 3 rounds for extra card), the difference is Skellige HAS to win 1/2 rounds to get a benefit Northern Reals does not.
Additional remarks:
Wanting to win both rounds even brings additional disadvantages like not being really able to play spies and when the enemy knows you try to win the first round he can a bit abuse it (by playing spies decoys etc.)
Also the old passive would have as mentioned allowed aggro decks (Northern Realms itself or also Monsters as aggro (since they get better against Northern Realms) in additional to more controlish decks (which still would be playable!)
On top of that you could have had matchups which were potentially 1 round matchups, leading to a more diverse gameplay.
I know there would be the psychological effect you mentioned! It does feel win more and it may be discouraging.
However, when players know to play with/against it (and see that this passive is actually not weaker at all!!) they will surely adapt, and this would diversify play!
I never understood how RNG can be fun. Sure, sometimes you will win because of it, I played yogg tempo mage for a while and got legend with it, 0 fun while doing so. If you lose because of RNG, the feeling is even worse. Either way, it is not very fun so I don't understand its purpose.
Again, RNG is fine as long as it is within some boundaries (so if you are unlucky, you still don't lose so much and same goes for being lucky, you won't get such an advantage). An example of this could be Animal Companion card.
I think the fun of RNG is that you do not see every time the same and that you cannot plan 100% meaning you have to improvise instead of learning the best tactic by heart. (Theres a reason why most people prefer card games to chess! And why no new games (like chess) without randomness are made).
About the randomness I like most: I would however prefer the animal companion card, if you know beforehand (in hand) which one you get. This way you can plan with it! I prefer random where you get from the random different choices you have to plan with and make the best out of it. It is still random which one you get (draw).
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