Something is off With the Coinflip

[Teplokot]

Something is off With the Coinflip

So a friend of mine told me that he thinks that something is off with the coinflip. He noticed that he is going first a lot when he concedes.

I laughed about it but out of curiosity still done a little experiment. I went to Casual and conceded at the start of the match every time i "won the coinflip" aka got unlucky to go first.

I gave up after ten times. Had to check Match History twice but ye, i was going first ten times in a row. Chance to hit tails ten times in a row with a real coin is <1%

Am i getting paranoid or?

 

[zantclick]

Yep.

 

[Riven-Twain]

Teplokot , could you run this by Gwent Support, please?

 

[idomyownstunts]

I noticed that whatever is showing before the flip is the result. So I always glance to see who's first before she flips.

 

[Riven-Twain]

I noticed that whatever is showing before the flip is the result.

I've also noticed this.

 

[NlelithZ44]

I noticed that whatever is showing before the flip is the result. So I always glance to see who's first before she flips.

I totally flipped when I saw this 'normal' post from you.

 

[Stormbuster]

I am first like 80% of my games. I am conceding very rarely. The single aspect that may differentiate me from other players out there is that I am F2P.

Nothing different from HearthStone. The p2w players are granted with a kickstart from the very beginning. Old classic recipe ....

Would be interesting a poll whereto all participants to share their status (p2w or f2p) and the number of games they started first (in say 100 games)...Who is in?

 

[Teplokot]

Would be interesting a poll whereto all participants to share their status (p2w or f2p) and the number of games they started first (in say 100 games)...Who is in?

It is pretty pointless. Unless some big streamer starts looking into it the thread will drown in memes.

 

[Stormbuster]

30 games since last post...25 started first. Never conceded. Some 8 out 25 started first second round as well...couldn't figure why....

 

[Sunsibar]

I noticed that whatever is showing before the flip is the result. So I always glance to see who's first before she flips.

I've also noticed this.

I also noticed that. But then I started to pay attention to it, and it doesn't happen every time. Often, but not every time.

 

[SF21]

Some 8 out 25 started first second round as well...couldn't figure why....

The winner of previous round goes first in current.

 

[Stormbuster]

The winner of previous round goes first in current.

Not correct!

Game 1: Second 1st round, lost it. 1st second round. Won it. First 3rd round. Equal card for both end of each round. Extra info: in 3 rounds I coudnt get any gold card, my opponent got all 4. I couldn't get none of Brewess team. FAIR GAME, what to say!


Game 2: Second 1st round, lost it. 2nd second round. Won it. 1st 3rd round.

Game 3: 1st on 1st round. Lost it. First on 2nd round. Won it. 2nd on last round.

So, it does not verify...at least for me.

 

[goudhout]

Well for some reason this seems to be true or anything because I did do the maths the odds are 9.765625 * 10^-4, which is about 0.0010% odds, for anyone bothering to check me
binompdf(10,0.50,10). It might also be that the game actually doesn't do the coin flip, doesn't care and just shows you that you went first for some kind of reason.

 

[Laveley]

Not correct!

It is correct and it worked like that for me since i first started playing this game on CB. You probably just confusing yourself because if you win a round you will start the next round, this is one of the core rules of the game.

 

[TheDyingScotsman]

So a friend of mine told me that he thinks that something is off with the coinflip. He noticed that he is going first a lot when he concedes.

I laughed about it but out of curiosity still done a little experiment. I went to Casual and conceded at the start of the match every time i "won the coinflip" aka got unlucky to go first.

I gave up after ten times. Had to check Match History twice but ye, i was going first ten times in a row. Chance to hit tails ten times in a row with a real coin is <1%

Am i getting paranoid or?

Not sure what you are talking about. There is no coinflip at the start of the 2nd and 3rd rounds. You win the round, you start first and that's it. There's not really much to it.

 

[TheDyingScotsman]

30 games since last post...25 started first. Never conceded. Some 8 out 25 started first second round as well...couldn't figure why....

I really think you are misunderstanding how this works. Conceding has nothing to do with it. If you concede but win the round you go first. You don't concede and win the round- you go first. You're confusing how the mechanic works and you are the only person to mention this which is why I think you simply don't get how it works

 

[Teplokot]

If you concede but win the round

Concede means forfeit the game, not pass one round.

NotLikeThis

Whole idea is that gwent might use weighted coin aka pRNG to determine the outcome of coinflip. This way you will have roughly 50/50 chance on average to go first/second but it also prevents long streaks of the same outcome (many modern games are using PseudoRNG for critical strike chance, read wiki if you want to know more). For instance, in dota you could stack normal hits on creeps to have a higher probability for your next hit on a player to be a crit, because pRNG actually forces the expected outcome.

Ending the game before it starts (FORFEIT if you go first without playing any cards) seems to break it because this way you can get in a loop of same outcome of coinflip for up to 12 games. Correct me if i am wrong but chances to do this with a real coin is ~0.025%

This particular thing does not bother me at all (not just because i already uninstalled GWENT) but it shows a symptom of tinkering with RNG that is always, ALWAYS have loopholes. Which is bad mmkay?

 

[Bugii]

I noticed that whatever is showing before the flip is the result. So I always glance to see who's first before she flips.

yup, just a delayed animation. It's still random, it's just decided before you can see the animation of "flipping"

 

[TurkeySon]

Do you ever plan to fix the coin flip?

If you get on a winning streak, then you never win the coin flip. I play on Xbox and PC, it is the same on both. I had a six game winning streak on PC and then I went first for 12 straight matches. On Xbox last night the same thing, I went 12-2 on the ladder and then the next 10 matches I went first.

I think that is crap.

Before the winning streak coin flip was about 50/50. It is not a coin flip, it is taking something else into account and changing the odds, there is no other explanation and it is lame.

 

[Moridin2244]

I'm personally not sure what is the factor but I've started keeping track trying to get a large enough sample size. However right now it's looking decidedly like I'm going first a lot, though I've only played like 10 games since starting this so totally random chance and bad luck is still a possibility. Luckily I'm running Yenn so I have a pretty good blind opening