(SPOILERS) The War

[Bellator Pius Gratus]

Even though he's an outright bastard

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Henselt

ought to be alive and kicking in Witcher 3. And as I saved

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Triss

she cleared

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the Brotherhood of any suspicions regarding the assassinations

and there was no massacre. Thus was Emhyr's elaborate conspiracy somewhat foiled. That ought to help hold off the Black Ones for a spell. Not that they ever seem to tire of trying to take over the Northern kingdoms. As it is with any tyrant wanting more power.

I did not vote however. What I hope and which side I aim to help isn't asked in the poll.

 

[Juuuhan]

I feel like people are vastly underestimating the Northern Kingdoms or vastly over estimating the Nilfgaardian Empire.

In terms of military very little actually happened in the North. Here's a short summary.

AFTERMATH from Witcher 2 (that matters)

Redania still is just as ferocious as they always have been but now also ruled by Radovid who's essentially Foltest 2.0. They didn't loose any sort of military power in previous games but rather became stronger.

Kaedwen have the same deal. Assuming they won the war in Pontar they are now more fearsome military power and if they lost the war it's not like they all of a sudden became trash. After all a lot of their soldiers are veterans.

Temeria lost their ruler but not their army and they still have highly skilled commanders (Natalis) and showed us in Witcher 2 that they are a powerhouse when it comes to their military.

Aedirn is arguable the only country that's anarchic at the moment but again, it's regarding their rulers not their actually army. And a war threatening your existence is a great opportunity for those who seek fame and glory to stand out assuming Stennis isn't there.

Finally there's Lyria and Rivia who's actually at the border of the Northern Kingdom and was ignored by CD RED. You honestly are telling me that they aren't prepared in warfare when they are neighbours with Nilfgaard?

All kingdoms to the north (Kovir, Cairngorn etc) are untouched and so are Brokilon forest with the dryads and Verden (also Dol Blathanna work as a bit of a speed-bumb because I doubt the elves will give up their lands for Nilfgaard).

Nilfgaard
Nilfgaard is first and foremost not a very centralized empire, it's rather multiple kingdoms (just like the north) which are "doing their own shit" and when the Emperor calls for emergency they answer, however here's the thing.

Motivation
Northern Kingdom would fight for survival because for the average peasant this is everything. Fight for survival or watch my family die by the evil in the south.

Nilfgaard on the other hand is vastly dependent where you are from. People from Rowan (One of the most southern kingdom in Nilfgaard) doesn't even know where Cintra is, and the motivation to fight there both from the kings point of view and the peasant isn't high priority. It's more like when the call comes they look at how many the have to send and try to solely send volunteers. This will effect the average person. And I'm certain that when a militiaman from Rowan runs into a Kaedwen veteran who's screaming his arse of, the Rowan will just turn around and run, dreaming of the vineyards back home.

It's also not really mentioned what sort of relationships kingdoms in Nilfgaard have to each other. It would be interesting to know whether they do get along as well with each other, because I could imagine a lot of internal intrigues going around there where you compete for influence, trade and power and Emhyr can't always go around the entire country keeping his underlings in check.

Geography

This have always played a huge roll. Fighting on your own terms. Anyone in Northern Kingdom knows how to use the environment properly and they have experience by fighting each other on how, where & when fighting in the North is done. People in Rowan again have never seen this land and won't be able to know the environment to their advantage.

Moving on, Nilfgaard is fucking huge. The average logistical time it would take to travel from Rowan/Ymlac/Nilfgaard all the way up to the north with a full army would be months (In scale probably thousands of KM2). This means that any sort of reinforcement is just out of the picture (You can't prepare for what you need due to time shortage) . It's simply not reasonable that Nilfgaard uses its entire army to fight in the North because it's to far away.

Winter is coming!

Yea, winter is coming, will be really fun when people living in the south who's probably never seen snow get to experience a freezing hell in an environment they've never been in fighting people like Zyvik.

Long story short

* Northern Kingdom still have most of their army (it's just some kings that got wiped which is more important after the war, not during)
* Northern Kingdom got the motivation
* Northern Kingdom got the geography
* Northern Kingdom got the defensive role

As Geralt said in the epilogue, war unite people and it's naive to think that they now will get crushed solely because of that, especially since many people fighting for Nilfgaard doesn't really gain anything from a new war, just the chance to loose your close ones by fighting uncivilized barbarians... Up somewhere in a land you've probably never even heard about.

The outcome will probably be as following, a lot of people will die fighting for very little ground, Nilfgaard will jump on them at the start, pushing them back in Temeraia. Lyria and Rivia will be surprisingly annoying for Nilfgaard as Aedirn will apply all manpower they can to assist them (because if Lyria & Rivia falls, Aedirn is next). The Northern Kingdoms will go full "Fuck you" mode where Radovid will probably unite with Natalis and Henselt (if he's alive) and fight like a maniac. Meanwhile Brokilon will remain untouched (Cause Dryads please....) Verden and Kerack together with Skellige who's not been touched will play as a important second flank and essentially the war will take place between Lyria and Rivia and Brokilon (Essentially as history repeats itself it will be in Temeria).

In the end as the Northern Kingdom unites and due to the geographical layout of the battle where Nilfgaard is pushing in the middle eventually will fizzle out somewhere south of Vizima around the typical Brenna simply due to the area being divided by Brokilon in the west, Blue mountain in the east and Mahakam in the middle and Vizima, Aldersberg and Vengerberg (If Nilfgaard actually pushes into Lyria and Rivia which I doubt) as key location castles locking down the entire push.

Nilfgaard will make some compensation claim and might get Upper Sodden and Brugge. However very little will probably be claimed after that and also I imagine that Nilfgaard will have to take another approach in the future as I don't view continuous fighting to be effective enough. Essentially after Brugge the geography becomes such a major bitch to conquer from the South (with Brokilon, mountains, Dol Blathanna and castles in small areas) that I don't see how they can simply push past Vizima without loosing so much it's simply isn't worth it.

 

[GuyNwah]

But how important is Skellige in the whole war, if they can "only" control the sea, but the main battles are fought on ground?

Assuming the Skellige Islands don't have much farm land, they have to fish a lot or trade with the mainland to get enough food, but right now the North has better things to do than farming, especially if their farm land is burning. So maybe this will even result in negotiations with Nilfgaard, because they can't provide enough food for their own people anymore. Supporting the pro or contra person would only result in different approaches how to solve that problem.

A pro-Nilfgaard person would of course negotiate terms with them and maybe stay neutral in the whole war or even support Nilfgaard with ships in exchange for becoming a vassal of Nilfgaard.

A contra-Nilfgaard person wouldn't negotiate with them at all, but the food problem would cause an inner conflict, which would weaken Skellige from the inside, maybe even so much that they don't have the ressources anymore to effectively go to war and staying out of the conflict for now.

Sure, that was just an imagined scenario most likely with some flaws, but i thought Geralt isn't a shepard and have to find new allies to fight the big evil


I didn't read much relevent story elements so far, i usually skip the parts, if the article starts to describe too much, but how is the stance of Skellige so far? They didn't appear to be in war with anyone so far, so they are still neutral?

And i have forgotten how Skellige behaved in the last war, did they fight against Nilfgaard or did they stay out of it?

Skellige islanders under Crach an Craite fought audaciously and effectively in Verden. The Verden resistance, Skellige, and Cidaris so routed Joachim de Wett's army that they blocked Menno Coehoorn's advance and mobilized many Temerians eager for a piece of the Nilfgaardians' hide.

Skellige would not be interested in accommodation with Nilfgaard. Their trade and blood relations are with Cintra, and the Cintran resistance.