The Mulligan System Explained

[Restlessdingo32]

I didn't think this was a problem or a "bug" from my experiences, and the explanations of sequencing seemed plausible at first. I consistently play a greed NR deck that has 5 cards that needs to be mulligan away, and I rarely have problems. That being said, I play that deck differently every match because of the inconsistent hands and match types (to me it's fun to play).

After thinking over this a little while today, I came to the conclusion that sequencing, the order of which you mulligan, has no effect on the probability of redrawing the mulligan-ed cards.

Firstly, when mulligan blacklists the mulligan-ed card (like Roach in the example), why are all probabilities calculated with 16 card decks? You only have 15 possible cards to regularly draw from because you always draw the top non-blacklisted card during each mulligan. It does not matter that the blacklisted card is placed on top of the deck or just behind the first, as that top non-blacklisted card will always be drawn as you mulligan, making the two positions the same spot on the next regular, free draw.

Blacklisting only affects the mulligan phase, not the regular draw. Mulligan shuffles the 1-3 cards back into the deck. Hypothetically, you could mulligan until the whole deck is blacklisted and it will still have the same effect of shuffling in the end. The mulligan is a separate event from the regular draw, a special shuffle of the mulligan cards, therefore isn't a part of the probability.

If you only mulligan 1 card (out of the 3 possible), a Roach, with a 10 card hand and 15 card remaining deck, the odds of redrawing it on the next regular draw is 1/15 or about 6.6%

When you mulligan 2 or 3 cards, with a 15 card deck, there are 2-3 possible outcomes/cards (you may or may not want to happen) on the next draw. It's a 20% chance to get 1 of the 3 cards back in the next draw, which is a pretty decent chance. This is not including the bronze cards that can have up to 3 each in a deck. Also RNG screw is a thing, so it might feel like the RNG gods are against you.

It's important to note the opening mulligan isn't necessarily the issue. It's the between round mulligans. As I said before, it would make sense to assume they behave the same way. Outside of blacklisting applying to one but not the other. What doesn't make sense is tossing a card in the R2-R3 mulligan and getting it back so frequently the next time you redraw a card. It is incredibly common even with a large deck. To clarify, it doesn't seem like tossed cards off these mulligans are properly shuffled into the deck when tossed. If the mulligans are bugged this is where the bug is at. And again, you would see the same issue with Vrihedd Officers.

The oddest aspect of this is, given how important mulligans can be, one would think the mechanics would be clarified in detail via official means.

 

[Rakshaaz]

question about the mulligan

dear developers, can you answer me the question - why do I systematically play the same cards and very often without gold at all?

how can we talk about tournaments and eSports, when the shuffling of the deck is a TRIGGERED

 

[4RM3D]

Rakshaaz thread merged

The OP explains all the details, the good and the bad. Also, CDPR has mentioned they are going to change the mulligan system in the (near) future.

 

[Rakshaaz]

Rakshaaz thread merged

The OP explains all the details, the good and the bad. Also, CDPR has mentioned they are going to change the mulligan system in the (near) future.

thanks for the answer
I really hope that it's true

 

[xandrmoro]

Not sure where to post this rant, since I'm yet unable to create topics, so probably it may be here.

What the hell is wrong with start-of-the-round mulligan mechanics? Seems like its not shuffling a card into the deck, but simply puts them on top of the deck.
Lets say, I'm playing reveal NG with golems and daerlans. At the start of the round I get golem in hand and, of course, place it back to the deck. Then I reveal daerlan... and get my golem back! Same applies to Albrich and even Vilgefortz. Even if there are already two golems on the board!

Simple math: I have 24 cards in my deck + 3 golems. 10 "usual" cards are already drawn, two golems played, leaving us with 14 cards to draw versus one poor golem. Whats the chance to draw it? 6.6%, tells us math. 100%, tells you Gwent.

Do you see that bright shiny thing in the sky? Its not the Sun, its my butthurt about this.

 

[Draconifors]

xandrmoro Moved your post to a thread that's dedicated to discussing and explaining the mulligan system.

 

[xandrmoro]

RidiculousName oh, thank you, wasn't able to find it somewhy.

Explanation in the OP is great, raised my winrate from 60% to 80%

 

[Jigzter]

I don't get why I read a lot of posts complaining about the mulligan placing the card at the top of the deck and for shuffling having to be triggered. Guys, you can actually use that as part of your strategy or find a way to go around it. It actually eliminates the issue of probability, which makes Gwent more of a strategy game unlike other card games that are based on luck. If your playing NG and you mulligan a golem, make sure you reveal opponents cards first before you use cards which make you draw from the deck. Also, the deck not shuffling can really be used to your advantage if you have cards that allow you to look at the deck or part of it.

 

[altaybek]

Do some cards have higher draw rate or...

Do some cards have higher draw rate or is it just selective perception? For example in a 25 card deck I'm having a really high draw rate of Commander's Horn and much lower rate on Margarita. Didn't keep a statistic but most of the games Natalis becomes a dead card thanks to drawn Commander and Reinforcement and Margarita is usually one of the last 2 cards in deck..

Or let me give a better example
-NG plays Guardian and you get two lesser guardians at hand next round
-Beginning of the next round you have 10 cards in deck.
-You mulligan one of the Lesser Guardians and start the round
-Then you draw a card either in R2 or R3 and hurrah you get the other one almost %90 of the time.
-Which means the mulliganed card is actually sent to the top of your deck. While 10 cards stays put.

I'm aware of the mulligan and blacklist mechanics and there is no "absolute random" in computer science but isn't this something most of us encounter everyday? (or I really need to give some break to reset my perception )

 

[4RM3D]

altaybek

Because your thread talks about the mulligan, I've merged it with the existing one.

As for the answer, the mulligan is wonky, but beyond that, the draws are completely random.

 

[shaolin974]

mulligan mechanism

Hello,

I've read recently a topic about the blacklist during mulligan but I still didn't know if after each card change during the mulligan we pick the 1st card of the deck.
For example, it is round 1 mullligan and I'm playing Northen realms. I would like to change 1 BSC in my hand, will this BSC be replaced by the 1st top card in my deck or will it be replaced by a random card (except BSC) ?

 

[altaybek]

It will most likely be the card you desired the least which is another BSC. That's how RNG works in Gwent.

 

[shaolin974]

It will most likely be the card you desired the least which is another BSC. That's how RNG works in Gwent.

It can't be a BSC because the game put it in the blacklist.

 

[altaybek]

It can't be a BSC because the game put it in the blacklist.

You said round 1. I thought you meant "during" the round. Otherwise, random.

 

[shaolin974]

You said round 1. I thought you meant "during" the round. Otherwise, random.

I meant round 1 mulligan.

 

[devivre]

Usually the card you put on top of the deck (for example with Stefan Skellen in a NG deck) is also the card you will get from your next mulligan (like at the start of the next round).

 

[Me.Solo]

I actually have a big issue with current mulligan system.

I play Elven Wardancers in my deck, and right now these units are played as soon as i'm finished with MY mulligan phase. It allows the opponent to actually wait a while and understand what deck he is facing more.

How things should be is the unit played when BOTH players are finished with replacing their cards.

 

[Archpriest]

I actually have a big issue with current mulligan system.

I play Elven Wardancers in my deck, and right now these units are played as soon as i'm finished with MY mulligan phase. It allows the opponent to actually wait a while and understand what deck he is facing more.

How things should be is the unit played when BOTH players are finished with replacing their cards.

Oh, dear...

 

[Me.Solo]

Oh, dear...

Oh, dear...

 

[Archpriest]

Oh, dear...

Assuming you understood what I meant by that. If not, I'll explain...