Swifty4;n8411510 said:
I feel like I'm being a bit of an idiot here but I've read this like 3 times and I still don't really get it. In game tutorial defo wanted as I learn better with practical examples of this kind of thing anyway. *snip*
If you mulligan 1 card it's not guaranteed to be placed in the top 4, but the chance of this happening is 25% because now there are 16 cards in the deck. This means 25% chance to be in the top 3 after you draw the replacement card.
If you mulligan 2 cards it's the same for the first card, but the second also has a 25% chance to be in the top 4. Meaning 43.75% chance at least one of the two will be in the top 3 or 6.25% for both cards to be there.
If you mulligan 3 cards, then the 3rd card has the same 25% chance to land in top 4, translating into a 57.81% total chance at least one of the cards is now in top 3 or 1.56% that all 3 cards are there.
The percentages are different from the infographic because we're looking at the top 3 cards.
Each mulligan phase is treated separately however, meaning blacklists do not carry over when you use the Nilfgaard ability, Francesca etc. You have the same rules, but the percentages will depend on the number of cards remaining in the deck. To reiterate the Nilfgaard example mulliganing 1 card with 9 remaining in your deck - 10 cards total. The card has 20% chance to be placed in the top 2, meaning it will become first after the redraw. On the other hand it has a 40% chance to be placed in the top 4 cards, becoming one of the top 3 after redraw.