The Third Nilfgaard War - The Thread for Miliary Enthusiasts

[KnightofPhoenix]

I disagree that the only effect that AoK's decisions could, and should have had, would pertain only to the amount of casualties that Nilfgaard suffers. The other important thing that Nilfgaard would suffer from is losing time, time it can't afford to lose because it means it will keep crumbling under the logistical weight of having to support that large of an army. THAT has been the bane of even the hugest of empires.

I am not saying that Upper Aedirn could have defeated Nilfgaard, it wouldn't have. But what it would have been able to do is slow Nilfgaard down. It is unbelievable to have even brute force manage to assault and take a range of mountains, supported by a dragon and guerrilla fighters, in less than 6 months. Nilfgaard would still probably win, but it would not be able to do so that fast.

The game is operating under a strict canon, and it does not make sense at all in any other possible circumstance, aka all other TW2 possible ending states. Aka, they decided to shit on TW2.

 

[carlos2033]

Nilfgaard's persuasion of Baron La Vallette to support the Nilfgaard is probably their biggest advantage in Temeria.

Big **** up by Foltest.

I was talking how nilfgard conquer Verden castles so easy Rozrog, Bodrog and Nastrog they are biggest on north

 

[Willowhugger]

I was talking how nilfgard conquer Verden castles so easy Rozrog, Bodrog and Nastrog they are biggest on north

I understand Verden would be a huge pain in the ass, sorry, got my quotes mixed up. My bad.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Are we sure the La Valettes are not in full support of Nilfgaard?

I guess in TW3 they are, judging by Louise cozying up to Voorhies (hey, bitch, hands off my adopted daughter's future husband!) Probably Nilfgaardians got a hold of Anais in some way, so La Valettes are going to behave.

 

[Willowhugger]

I disagree that the only effect that AoK's decisions could, and should have had, would pertain only to the amount of casualties that Nilfgaard suffers. The other important thing that Nilfgaard would suffer from is losing time, time it can't afford to lose because it means it will keep crumbling under the logistical weight of having to support that large of an army. THAT has been the bane of even the hugest of empires.

I am not saying that Upper Aedirn could have defeated Nilfgaard, it wouldn't have. But what it would have been able to do is slow Nilfgaard down. It is unbelievable to have even brute force manage to assault and take a range of mountains, supported by a dragon and guerrilla fighters, in less than 6 months. Nilfgaard would still probably win, but it would not be able to do so that fast.

The game is operating under a strict canon, and it does not make sense at all in any other possible circumstance, aka all other TW2 possible ending states. Aka, they decided to shit on TW2.

This would be very true if not for the fact that the White Bridge over the Pontar is controlled by Baroness La Vallete and the defection of her to Nilfgaard, whether her castle remains intact or not, means that Nilfgaard has a means of crossing the region without engaging the military forces of Upper Aedirn or Temeria and provides them steady access over it.

In short, the doorway from Temeria to the Pontar Valley is open for Nilfgaard to crossover no matter what.

Iorveth and Saskia's people can harass the Nilfgaardians but it's possible that the La Valette forces remnants will be assisting them from the other end.

---------- Updated at 06:11 PM ----------

I guess in TW3 they are, judging by Louise cozying up to Voorhies (hey, bitch, hands off my adopted daughter's future husband!) Probably Nilfgaardians got a hold of Anais in some way, so La Valettes are going to behave.

To be fair, the Baroness wouldn't need that kind of incentive since King Foltest kidnapped her children, dishonored her publicly, and may have killed her eldest son.

There's no point in NOT serving Nilfgaard under those kinds of conditions. It also provides them a VITAL strategic advantage in ACCESS to Temeria across the Pontar River.

Shillard was a cunning bastard, that.

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

This would be very true if not for the fact that the White Bridge over the Pontar is controlled by Baroness La Vallete and the defection of her to Nilfgaard, whether her castle remains intact or not, means that Nilfgaard has a means of crossing the region without engaging the military forces of Upper Aedirn or Temeria and provides them steady access over it.

In short, the doorway from Temeria to the Pontar Valley is open for Nilfgaard to crossover no matter what.

I think you need to relook at the map.

If you are suggesting that what Nilfgaard can do is access the Pontar thanks to the La Valette defection (which incidentaly does not happen even if Aryan is dead. Why? Because Shilard betrayed the Baroness' trust and stole her children), and attack Upper Aedirn from there, then that is the equivalent of touching your right ear with your left hand. Not to mention that would still mean fighting through Temeria, crossing into Redanian territory, and having a very difficult supply line to maintain and defend.

This becomes even more convoluted to pull off because Henselt could have acquired Flostam for himself, aka completely denying that move, which no one in his right mind would attempt anyways as it doesn't make sense.

 

[carlos2033]

Iorveth and Saskia's people can harass the Nilfgaardians but it's possible that the La Valette forces remnants will be assisting them from the other end.

Vergen wouldn`t fall that easily if Saskia and Iorveth are there, Henselt was using sorcerer and secret passages through tunnels, don`t thing they would fall in the same trap again

 

[Songborn]

How likely is it that they bribed their way several times as Voorhis suggested in "Ugly Baby" with the garrison at Ben Glean? I mean would that be a viable strategy?

 

[Willowhugger]

I think you need to relook at the map.

If you are suggesting that what Nilfgaard can do is access the Pontar thanks to the La Valette defection (which incidentaly does not happen even if Aryan is dead. Why? Because Shilard betrayed the Baroness' trust and stole her children), and attack Upper Aedirn from there, then that is the equivalent of touching your right ear with your left hand. Not to mention that would still mean fighting through Temeria, crossing into Redanian territory, and having a very difficult supply line to maintain and defend.

This becomes even more convoluted to pull off because Henselt could have acquired Flostam for himself, aka completely denying that move, which no one in his right mind would attempt anyways as it doesn't make sense.

1. I'm fairly sure that's not the case given Foltest's forces had La Vallette's children before they were targetted for assassination by the late King's political rivals. Shillard offered the Baroness sanctuary after Geralt or he helped her escape from King Foltest's custody. By that point, Foltest had already seized Anais and her ill-fated brother.

It's entirely possible Nilfgaard was seizing Anais for HER.

2. The La Vallette insurrection was supposed by other nobility who were aiding them against King Foltest and may choose to follow the Baroness in assisting the Emperor of Nilfgaard but this is up in the air. Less so is any surviving La Vallete forces.

3. The big deal of the La Lallette defection is that it MASSIVELY speeds up the Nilfgaard incursion into mainstream Temeria and prevents any need to slow down for sieges.

 

[carlos2033]

How likely is it that they bribed their way several times as Voorhis suggested in "Ugly Baby" with the garrison at Ben Glean? I mean would that be a viable strategy?

They use bribery there cuz it contains only mercenaries

 

[Willowhugger]

How likely is it that they bribed their way several times as Voorhis suggested in "Ugly Baby" with the garrison at Ben Glean? I mean would that be a viable strategy?

Northern resistance depends heavily on sellswords. There's also the fact that the North is deeply divided as we see with the attempts on Anais life, the treason of the La Vallette family (justified or not), but the bitter divisions between the races due to the Scoia'tael uprisings. If Emhyr is actually making deals with the locals this time around as we see with the Bloody Baron and later Temeria as a whole then the resistance is probably going to be far-far less likely.

The reason Nilfgaard resistance was so entrenched in previous conquests was Nilfgaard's intractable policies.

 

[Trireme]

Without a strong king or national army, it is up to each local baron or governor whether he will resist or make a deal with the Empire. After the main Temerian army was defeated, most of the local lords probably decided to make a deal rather than slowly starve to death behind a castle wall. Aedirn was a mess, even if Stennis was alive and on the throne, so once their army was defeated in the field all the barons probably did the same thing as the Temerians. There is no reason to resist and lose everything if you don't have a king and national army that will come to save you. Sure there were "allies" in Kaedwen and Redania, but Vernon Roche said that Radovid refused to help defend Vizima. With the national army broken and "allies" refusing to help, why continue the fight?

 

[KnightofPhoenix]

1. I'm fairly sure that's not the case given Foltest's forces had La Vallette's children before they were targetted for assassination by the late King's political rivals. Shillard offered the Baroness sanctuary after Geralt or he helped her escape from King Foltest's custody. By that point, Foltest had already seized Anais and her ill-fated brother.

2. The La Vallette insurrection was supposed by other nobility who were aiding them against King Foltest and may choose to follow the Baroness in assisting the Emperor of Nilfgaard but this is up in the air. Less so is any surviving La Vallete forces.

3. The big deal of the La Lallette defection is that it MASSIVELY speeds up the Nilfgaard incursion into mainstream Temeria and prevents any need to slow down for sieges.

1. The Witcher 2, Act 3, Roche's path. Shilard was behind the abduction of the La Valette kids, instructing Maravel to do it for him. He used Anais as a bargaining chip to get Henselt to invite him to Loc Muinne. That is all in TW2.

3. That still does not explain them taking Upper Aedirn, in case of its victory in TW2, in less than 6 months.

But I think I'll retire from the discussion, because if there is one thing I hate doing, is fixing a developer's mess. I don't think TW3 is worth my time at this point.

Cheers everyone and have fun.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

If you are suggesting that what Nilfgaard can do is access the Pontar thanks to the La Valette defection (which incidentaly does not happen even if Aryan is dead. Why? Because Shilard betrayed the Baroness' trust and stole her children),

Well, she does not need to know all particulars. We know that, but for everyone else Maravel sold the children to Henselt. Nilfgaardians were middle-men, and they were not about to publicize their involvement.
Louise is a whore who wanted to be a queen. She fucked with Foltest while her husband was still alive (in the beginning of Blood of Elves), was mighty pissed and started a rebellion when Foltest told her to take a hike. Now - gee, here is a surprise! - she hangs out with Voorhies who in every opinion is going to be Emhyr's successor. I am pretty sure that the La Valettes go along with Nilfgaardian invasion, and will not put up an active resistance.

 

[Willowhugger]

Well, she does not need to know all particulars. We know that, but for everyone else Maravel sold the children to Henselt. Nilfgaardians were middle-men, and they were not about to publicize their involvement.
Louise is a whore who wanted to be a queen. She fucked with Foltest while her husband was still alive (in the beginning of Blood of Elves), was mighty pissed and started a rebellion when Foltest told her to take a hike. Now - gee, here is a surprise! - she hangs out with Voorhies who in every opinion is going to be Emhyr's successor. I am pretty sure that the La Valettes go along with Nilfgaardian invasion, and will not put up an active resistance.

To be frank, I think that's a remarkably generous reading to King Foltest given his appalling behavior.

I'D serve Nilfgaard under the conditions the Baroness endured.

Whatever the Baroness' motivations for becoming Foltest's mistress, when one kidnaps one's children, possibly kills another, and orders one tortured then one has no further need for loyalty.

---------- Updated at 06:47 PM ----------

That's not necessarily a mistake @KnightofPhoenix but an unfortunate reality of the Shrodinger's Video Game in that if some events are going to be canonical and other events are going to be chosen then something has to give. Are some events less likely to occur than others? Yes, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to move forward anyway. In all likelihood, the Roche Path is the most likely one.

In which case, Saskia due to her mind-control by Philippa Eilhart is unable to exert any sort of resistance as is Henselt.

So, the Occam's Razor Canonical Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Path would be:

1. Kill Aryan
2. Kill Loredo
3. Roche Path
4. Kill Henselt
5. Kill or Spare Saskia
6. Save Triss

I'd say Save Anais due to the Witch Hunt but there's no sign of her in either Radovid or Natalis' hands, while the Conclave is toothless against Radovid. The above events GREATLY FAVOR Nilfgaard in the war.

1. Killing Aryan provides Nilfgaard with La Vallette castle and its forces.
2. Killing Loredo denies Henselt the province of Flotsam.
3. Roche's Path is obvious for many reasons.
4. Henselt's death for obvious reasons.
5. Saskia is mind-controlled or dead either way and in no condition to lead given her primary concern would be Philippa not the Rebellion.
6. Without Anais, Temeria is without any sort of monarch whatsoever and the chain of command is busted.

With Saskia disabled Upper Aedirn will offer no resistance whatsoever.

It'll be doubly so if King Stennis is killed.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

6. Save Triss

I'd say Save Anais due to the Witch Hunt but there's no sign of her in either Radovid or Natalis' hands, while the Conclave is toothless against Radovid. The above events GREATLY FAVOR Nilfgaard in the war.

6. Without Anais, Temeria is without any sort of monarch whatsoever and the chain of command is busted.

That is the only part I disagree. I find it incredible to move from a full support for a Council and a Conclave to a full-scale North-wide witch-hunts in such a short span of time. What was the reason to start them at all??? For me it only makes sense if ALL mages were accused in LM through Letho's testimony (to get rid of the monarchs who "went against the will of MAGES"). Otherwise it is way more implausible than a sudden death of Henselt, a disappearance of Saskia and Upper Aedirn, and pretty much everything else.

I would claim that for witch-hunts to happen, and events in TW3 to have any sense, there much be a massacre in LM, and All mages be perceived as traitors.

Btw, Natalis is a regent of Temeria at the end of TW2 (if we give him Anais), and in TW3 he is a commander of Temerian forces. So there is no inconsistency there.

I agree that one path should be chosen as canonical, and CDPR chose the most plausible one. TW2 was too complex, and there is no way in hell it would be possible to account for all, or even most, pretty extreme variations in end states.

 

[Willowhugger]

That is the only part I disagree. I find it incredible to move from a full support for a Council and a Conclave to a full-scale North-wide witch-hunts in such a short span of time. What was the reason to start them at all??? For me it only makes sense if ALL mages were accused in LM through Letho's testimony (to get rid of the monarchs who "went against the will of MAGES"). Otherwise it is way more implausible than a sudden death of Henselt, a disappearance of Saskia and Upper Aedirn, and pretty much everything else.

I would claim that for witch-hunts to happen, and events in TW3 to have any sense, there much be a massacre in LM, and All mages be perceived as traitors.

Btw, Natalis is a regent of Temeria at the end of TW2 (if we give him Anais), and in TW3 he is a commander of Temerian forces. So there is no inconsistency there.

I agree that one path should be chosen as canonical, and CDPR chose the most plausible one. TW2 was too complex, and there is no way in hell it would be possible to account for all, or even most, pretty extreme variations in end states.

The Witch Hunts only are occurring in Novigrad, though. If there were full-scale Witch Hunts across the North then Radovid wouldn't need the Eternal Fire to serve as his lackies, he'd just have his men killing wizards. Radovid is using the Eternal Fire as a catspaw to get his revenge on the mages in the city of Novigrad while, presumably, keeping wizards actively supporting him during wartime.

It's only after he defeats Nilfgaard he begins the full-scale pogrom of magic-users in the North.

It's quite clever of him.

The only mages dying in this version of the war are those who have chosen to remain Neutral in the war.

 

[Songborn]

I see, so they actually might have just straight up bribed their way into several key positions by buying the sell-swords out from under the defenders. This would also fit the picture of Emhyr on one of his Gwent cards (him handing a sack of money to a Temerian).
W3 is one of the few RPGS where I would really like to have had a sort of... military guides for dummies (maybe included as a book like the "Care for your sword, soldier!") that just lists a bunch of numbers so we know how many people are in a banner or in the Third Army.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

The Witch Hunts only are occurring in Novigrad, though. If there were full-scale Witch Hunts across the North then Radovid wouldn't need the Eternal Fire to serve as his lackies, he'd just have his men killing wizards. Radovid is using the Eternal Fire as a catspaw to get his revenge on the mages in the city of Novigrad while, presumably, keeping wizards actively supporting him during wartime.

It's only after he defeats Nilfgaard he begins the full-scale pogrom of magic-users in the North.

It's quite clever of him.

The only mages dying in this version of the war are those who have chosen to remain Neutral in the war.

Actually, as I understand from dialogues, mages thought of Novigrad as a safe heaven, and came there to avoid persecution everywhere else. They got trapped.
Keira Metz is hiding in Velen and is afraid that the mage-hunters will find here even in the wilderness. She is desperate enough to ask Radovid for clemency. If there were no persecutions, she could have gone to Kaedwen. People discuss persecutions in Bann Ard in Kaedwen, and other places. Dijkstra, when he offered Geralt to assassinate Radovid, remarks that they saved Novigrad mages, but who would save the rest, everywhere else.
So it seems that witch-hunts are all over the North, and it was only Novigrad that was free of persecutions until recently.

 

[Willowhugger]

Actually, as I understand from dialogues, mages thought of Novigrad as a safe heaven, and came there to avoid persecution everywhere else. They got trapped.
Keira Metz is hiding in Velen and is afraid that the mage-hunters will find here even in the wilderness. She is desperate enough to ask Radovid for clemency. If there were no persecutions, she could have gone to Kaedwen. People discuss persecutions in Bann Ard in Kaedwen, and other places. Dijkstra remarks that they saved Novigrad mages, but who would save the rest, everywhere else. when he offered Geralt to assassinate Radovid.
So it seems that witch-hunts are all over the North, and it was only Novigrad that was free of persecutions until recently.

Dijkstra says Novigrad lost 170 mages out of 200 while 2000 or so are are still outside of the land and relatively safe but "next" on Radovid's list.

Keira Metz is a member of the Lodge of Sorceresses, though, which would mean she'd be an outlaw anywhere rather than just witches in general. Keira was involved in the treason against Radovid's father and other kings plus the Pontar Valley massacre, however loosely, which means Radovid is not hunting her as a mage but hunting in PARTICULAR.

However, you may be right. In which case I'd argue Anais is less likely to be with John Natalis but her "Brother" King Radovid and this is why Roche is VERY RELUCTANTLY allied with him.

Perhaps Radovid having promised to crown Anais Queen of Temeria (as a vassal state) only for Roche to get a similar deal.