The Third Nilfgaard War - The Thread for Miliary Enthusiasts

[Gerald01]

I'm not that into the military aspects of the storyline because it seems to me the author(s) intended them as a little more than narrative instruments to tell a more localised story.
Nilfgaard behaviour of outright total war against multiple opponents at the same time without using a more logical and "historical" divide and conquer (really dislike the term and the abuse it lends itself to though).

If we look at how proper (and comparable) empires acted in our world's history during similar times (pre-capitalist pre-industrialisation era) they almost always relied on local allies as support and/or exploited rivalries/used them as casus belli etc. Let's think of the Roman and Ottoman empire for instance.
The HRE is not comparable, as it's not a proper expansionist entity, aka not an "empire" as the term is understood in commonspeak today (only from a dejure, political, standpoint etc.).

More to the point, how's Nilfgaard even supposed to logistically support all those massive armies across relatively large distances with no friendly political entities nearby?
Why do the Northern realms (even at local level!) even accept battle over and over against such overwhelming odds? With no coordination?
How was Redania under Radovid even able to field a comparably large army (in toto) and especially in such a short time ?

As someone else said, the tactics and strategy employed, including political consequences of defeat very much remind us of WWII and NOT medieval warfare, when you couldn't "occupy" territory and a lost stronghold/city was not that important strategically in the POV of the overarching conflict.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Dijkstra says Novigrad lost 170 mages out of 200 while 2000 or so are are still outside of the land and relatively safe but "next" on Radovid's list.

Keira Metz is a member of the Lodge of Sorceresses, though, which would mean she'd be an outlaw anywhere rather than just witches in general. Keira was involved in the treason against Radovid's father and other kings plus the Pontar Valley massacre, however loosely, which means Radovid is not hunting her as a mage but hunting in PARTICULAR.

However, you may be right. In which case I'd argue Anais is less likely to be with John Natalis but her "Brother" King Radovid and this is why Roche is VERY RELUCTANTLY allied with him.

Perhaps Radovid having promised to crown Anais Queen of Temeria (as a vassal state) only for Roche to get a similar deal.

You are right about Keira, she would be hunted everywhere. Also I think you may be right about Roche delivering Anais to Radovid. It seems Radovid somewhat trusts Roche, but he wouldn't if Roche screwed him over in TW2 and delivered the girl to Natalis. By killing Radovid, Roche may hope to get Anais back from Tretagor, and to crown her as a Queen of a semi-independent Temeria, made into Nilfgaardian protectorate. They should have put it into the game, one way or the other. All they had to do is a couple of lines in dialogues.

 

[Willowhugger]

I'm not that into the military aspects of the storyline because it seems to me the author(s) intended them as a little more than narrative instruments to tell a more localised story.
Nilfgaard behaviour of outright total war against multiple opponents at the same time without using a more logical and "historical" divide and conquer (really dislike the term and the abuse it lends itself to though).

If we look at how proper (and comparable) empires acted in our world's history during similar times (pre-capitalist pre-industrialisation era) they almost always relied on local allies as support and/or exploited rivalries/used them as casus belli etc. Let's think of the Roman and Ottoman empire for instance.
The HRE is not comparable, as it's not a proper expansionist entity, aka not an "empire" as the term is understood in commonspeak today (only from a dejure, political, standpoint etc.).

More to the point, how's Nilfgaard even supposed to logistically support all those massive armies across relatively large distances with no friendly political entities nearby?
Why do the Northern realms (even at local level!) even accept battle over and over against such overwhelming odds? With no coordination?
How was Redania under Radovid even able to field a comparably large army (in toto) and especially in such a short time ?

As someone else said, the tactics and strategy employed, including political consequences of defeat very much remind us of WWII and NOT medieval warfare, when you couldn't "occupy" territory and a lost stronghold/city was not that important strategically in the POV of the overarching conflict.

This is part of the larger Witcher-issue rather than just the games but the books provide a bit of insight into this particular bit.

1. The North is united against Nilfgaard due to the Massacre of Cintra and the Scoia'tael Uprising fostered by Nilfgaard. In terms of making allies, Nilfgaard bungled horrifically their propaganda machine and resulted in an almost unanimous hatred of them being created. Dandelion helped in this process tremendously as the Continent's version of William Shakespeare propagated numrous ballads which villified the Nilfgaard as monsters incapable of reason or mercy.

2. The Nilfgaard badly underestimated the North and expected them to be easily rolled over, only for the events of Cinta's massacre to unite them around a single purpose. The North's kings united into a singular military alliance capable of fighting them. The Conclave, also, lent its aid at the Battle of Sodden which the Nilfgaardian mages could not match being far less powerful.

As such, the Nilfgaard were forced to retreat.

3. The Nilfgaard practices a kind of racism which is anachronistic in its scope and relates Non-Nilfgaardians as lesser beings. As such, the Northerners being dealt with in a fair and even-handed manner is something they weren't really interested in.

4. Nilfgaard is actually deeply overpopulated and attempting to expand for the purposes of settlement and replacing the locals with their own citizenry. As such, the treatment of the North is one where the locals are not people they want to rule, but as people they want to REPLACE.

5. Yes, the Nilfgaard are based on the Nazis and the North is based on Eastern Europe. Sapkowksi backpedals a bit but, honestly, Poland has a history of viewing both the Germans (Nilfgaard) and Russians (Kaedwini) with a less than kind eye for REASONS.

Sapkowski backpedals, of course, because the Nilfgaard as Nazis kind of undermines the moral ambiguity.

6. The North is actually VERY UNITED at the time of the Second Nilfgaard War and has already driven the Nilfgaard back twice in the past. Given they know the kind of treatment the Nilfgaard inflicts on their subjects as well as the kind of mercy/offers they can expect (which is to say, none) they really have no reason NOT to fight.

Foltest was the "High King" of this alliance and a key figure for elimination so the Nilfgaard could BREAK these alliances. Henselt was, already, a deeply dis-trustworthy ally but everyone else had each other's backs.

In short...

Emhyr is a really SHITTY conqueror.

In fact, the ONLY way Emhyr can win is if he does EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAY HE SHOULD.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

5. Yes, the Nilfgaard are based on the Nazis and the North is based on Eastern Europe. Sapkowksi backpedals a bit but, honestly, Poland has a history of viewing both the Germans (Nilfgaard) and Russians (Kaedwini) with a less than kind eye for REASONS.

Actually, it was CDPR that once compared Nilfgaard to Nazi Germany (long time ago, before they decided to go for morally grey areas), not Sapkowski. Sapkowski compared it to Rome, and agreed with a comparison to Napoleonic France. Or we may compare it with Holy Roman Empire, and Northern Wars akin to Baltic crusades.

Comparison with Nazi Germany is very loaded and unfair, because it emphasizes features other Empires did not have - crazy ideology, inhumane treatment, and genocides. Nilfgaard did not have any of it. It was the North that burned the mages and non-humans, exterminated certain population groups, and started pogroms every chance they get. I can agree that Nilfgaard behaves as any empire in history, from Persians, to Romans, to Russia. But no way in hell they are similar to Nazis. Nazis are so bloody unique, and such a 20 century phenomenon, that no medival/ancient empire would ever come close.

 

[Willowhugger]

Actually, it was CDPR that compared Nilfgaard to Nazi Germany, not Sapkowski. Sapkowski compared it to Rome, and agreed with a comparison to Napoleonic France. Or we may compare it with Holy Roman Empire, and Northern Wars akin to Baltic crusades.

Comparison with Nazi Germany is very loaded and unfair, because it emphasizes features other Empires did not have - crazy ideology, inhumane treatment, and genocides. Nilfgaard did not have any of it. It was the North that burned the mages and non-humans, exterminated certain population groups, and started pogroms every chance they get. I can agree that Nilfgaard behaves as any empire in history, from Persians, to Romans, to Russia. But no way in hell they are similar to Nazis. Nazis are so bloody unique, and such a 20 century phenomenon, that no medival/ancient empire would ever come close.

I try not to compare the Continent too much to existing centuries and decades due to the good world building meaning that while elements resemble Medieval or Renaissance Europe, other elements are grossly different like knowledge of mutation, other planets, or advanced medicine. In the case of Nilfgaard's similarity to the Nazis there's some definite similarities in terms of how they choose to conduct war (i.e. Blitzkrieg).

However, I prefer to think of the Nilfgaard as honestly closer to the much-much less terrifying but formidable Empire of Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden.

Not just because everyone is wearing black.

It's the "transitional" modern political-economic-military between Medieval and Modern Warfare. Also, one where they haven't quite got the hang of things and you get the atrocities of the Thirty Year War.

 

[Gerald01]

@Willowhugger
Thanks for the response, I know all that, I was talking about the Third Nilfgaardian war though.
The North does not coordinate at all, while you'd think they would given their recent past.
You may blame the regicides but it doesn't make much sense.
Radovid may be a brilliant strategist (apart from dialogue we have no evidence of this though, quite the contrary), but his plan of "creating a northern empire"(how?) is kinda daft.
I get what the writers were trying to concoct: Radovid lets his neighbours face the full brunt of the N's initial assault in the hopes of then swallowing the up afterwards (I guess? Hoping attrition bests the invaders?).
Invading Kwaeden ally to "boost his power" during a total war makes no sense from a medieval strategic standpoint. Again, you couldn't just occupy foreign land and instantly boost your resources/manpower, warfare, economy and militaries just did not work like that<-yet another WWII failed parallelism.

To an extent, though, the comment about steamrolling vs divide and conquer can be applied to the original approach during the 1st and 2nd, in particular the very initial confrontations. The only parallel from comparable history I can think of, is the Roman first invasion of what would become Britannia, attempting to prematurely face multiple political entities at the same time, who react with a common front. But Nilfgaard vs North is not at all the same as relative strenght of Late Roman Republic/early empire vs Southern British Isles. They're much closer, relatively, as far as projection of power and effective employable force is concerned it would seem.

As far as Nilfgaardian demographics go, I was not aware of their booming population. How is that possible? I know they have superior medicinal practices due to alchemy and magic and whatnot, compared to our 11-15th century or even later, but it seems epidemics are a thing and their agriculture is not that advanced.
Maybe yet another WWII->Mein Kampf allusion?

---------- Updated at 08:04 PM ----------

It was the North that burned the mages and non-humans, exterminated certain population groups, and started pogroms every chance they get. I can agree that Nilfgaard behaves as any empire in history, from Persians, to Romans, to Russia. But no way in hell they are similar to Nazis. Nazis are so bloody unique, and such a 20 century phenomenon, that no medival/ancient empire would ever come close.

Uh, persecution, pogroms and religious/ethnic intolerance were commonplace long before the Nazis. They just have a better PR guy and are more recent.
Real word medieval massacres make anything from the Witcher games PALE in comparison both in scale and frequency.
One example: the massacre of the Latins between what you'd think they were relatively homogeneous cultural/religious groups.

 

[Willowhugger]

@Willowhugger
Thanks for the response, I know all that, I was talking about the Third Nilfgaardian war though.
The North does not coordinate at all, while you'd think they would given their recent past.
You may blame the regicides but it doesn't make much sense.
Radovid may be a brilliant strategist (apart from dialogue we have no evidence of this though, quite the contrary), but his plan of "creating a northern empire"(how?) is kinda daft.
I get what the writers were trying to concoct: Radovid lets his neighbour face the full brunt of the N's initial assault in the hopes of then swallowing the up afterwards (I guess? Hoping attrition bests the invaders?).
Invading Kwaeden ally to "boost his power" during a total war makes no sense from a medieval strategic standpoint. Again, you couldn't just occupy foreign land and instantly boost your resources/manpower, warfare, economy and militaries just did not work like that<-yet another WWII failed parallelism.

1. Radovid's strategic genius seems to be less a military genius but actual strategic genius in that he has a surprisingly good skill at moving the right people into the right place at the right time. It's not so much that Radovid is very good at commanding people on the ground but that he's very good at getting people to work for him (Whoreson Junior, the Eternal Fire, Roche, the nobility of Kaedwin).

Keira Metz WOULD have worked for him voluntary if not for the fact he had no interest in her skills, probably wise given how easy it is to get the Lodge to join back together.

2. I don't think Radovid actually intended to let his neighbors face the full brunt of his wrath so much as Nilfgaard's invasion was a suprirse, relatively speaking. As such, the past six months of the war were required to mobilize his forces versus Nilfgaard who already had their forces mobilized and marching from Cintra by Loch M.

3. While people keep acting like Radovid invading Kaedwin and somehow gaining the resources there is insane, it's happened in real-life on many occassions as this was, in fact the means that Saladin defeated Richard the First's Crusade. Saladin invaded and conquered all of his Muslim neighbors and used their armies to defeat the Crusaders.

Likewise, Vesemir says that Radovid intends to restore prior borders after events so it's very likely he reached an accomadation with the existing Kaedwini nobility--backing up his own candidate for the throne so he could gain their forces. So much so that he doesn't need to occupy their territory but just have them occupy it for him (as we see Emhyr achieves with Temeria in a "deal" ending).

4. A Radovidian Empire is likely not going to be Redania Uber Alles but Radovid as High King over vassal states.

To an extent, though, the comment about steamrolling vs divide and conquer can be applied to the original approach during the 1st and 2nd, in particular the very initial confrontations. The only parallel from comparable history I can think of, is the Roman first invasion of what would become Britannia, attempting to prematurely face multiple political entities at the same time, who react with a common front. But Nilfgaard vs North is not at all the same as relative strenght of Late Roman Republic/early empire vs Southern British Isles. They're much closer, relatively, as far as projection of power and effective employable force is concerned it would seem.

Nilfgaard's successes in this war are almost entirely won by achieving agreements with the locals. Frankly, it's about time they learned this basic lesson.

As far as Nilfgaardian demographics go, I was not aware of their booming population. How is that possible? I know they have superior medicinal practices due to alchemy and magic and whatnot, compared to our 11-15th century or even later, but it seems epidemics are a thing and their agriculture is not that advanced.
Maybe yet another WWII->Mein Kampf allusion?

In this case, I suspect it's BECAUSE of their lack of agricultural advances they need to invade the North as the lack of mechanized farming means they cannot support a much larger population.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

I try not to compare the Continent too much to existing centuries and decades due to the good world building meaning that while elements resemble Medieval or Renaissance Europe, other elements are grossly different like knowledge of mutation, other planets, or advanced medicine. In the case of Nilfgaard's similarity to the Nazis there's some definite similarities in terms of how they choose to conduct war (i.e. Blitzkrieg).

However, I prefer to think of the Nilfgaard as honestly closer to the much-much less terrifying but formidable Empire of Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden.

Not just because everyone is wearing black.

It's the "transitional" modern political-economic-military between Medieval and Modern Warfare. Also, one where they haven't quite got the hang of things and you get the atrocities of the Thirty Year War.

I like to see them as wearing Habsburg colors (black and yellow/gold), probably because lots of my ancestors hailed from both Vienna and Prague, and I am a big fan of Habsburgs in general.

Sun symbol seems to come from Byzantium, which is very fitting. Romans never had a good diplomacy (short messages to an effect "submit or die" were pretty much the full extent of their diplomacy), but if to judge by Nilfgaardian clandestine/diplomatic adventures in TW2, they, as Byzanthians, considered diplomacy as a war by other means, with no distinction between diplomatic corps and intelligence service. That would make Shilard both a senior ambassador, and a high-ranking CIA field operative, who is a handler and coordinator of Cynthia, Maravel, and Letho and Co. Temeria should have had a list of people to be shot on sight if they are seen north of Yaruga. It would have spared the North a lot of grief.

 

[Charcharo]

I just stopped by to say ...
Damn good topic and discussion guys. You made my day !
:hatsoff:

 

[carlos2033]

People discuss persecutions in Bann Ard in Kaedwen, and other places.

But by W3 map Var Attre show us Bann ard is under nilfgard control

 

[Willowhugger]

But by W3 map Var Attre show us Bann ard is under nilfgard control

Yeah, Nilfgaard hates mages.

"Magic is made to serve Emhyr var Emreis, not to advise him."

 

[vivaxardas2015]

But by W3 map Var Attre show us Bann ard is under nilfgard control

It can't be. Ban Ard is a Kaedweni city (so it is under control of Radovid) known for its mining and its magical academy. Dethmold was Ban Ard's academy graduate.

"Magic is made to serve Emhyr var Emreis, not to advise him."

I prefer the Tevinter slant of this rule. I guess me and Phillipa would agree on this.

 

[carlos2033]

It can't be. Ban Ard is a Kaedweni city (so it is under control of Radovid) known for its mining and its magical academy. Dethmold was Ban Ard's academy graduate.

Nilfgard controls that part of Kedwen look at this map
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EkqdviWlMvE/maxresdefault.jpg

 

[Willowhugger]

Geralt: So, how did you conquer half of the North in six months?

Van Attre: Plot convenience!

Geralt: Oh?

Van Attre: The developers love Temeria so EVERYTHING is always about Temeria in the long run. The Third Nilfgaard Invasion is really just Temeria's fate, screw everyone else.

Geralt: Upper Aedirn was a big deal.

Van Attre: Eh, we're going to just ignore that. It's all conquered anyway.

Geralt: But Saskia and Iorveth would be hard to take down.

Van Attre: Listen, there's a branching story where in some of them Upper Aedirn would be a formidable opponent.

Geralt: Yessss...

Van Attre: We are CUTTING those branches.

 

[vivaxardas2015]

Nilfgard controls that part of Kedwen look at this map
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EkqdviWlMvE/maxresdefault.jpg

Thank you. Interesting. So Niflgaardans did cross Yaruga at Loc Muinne before Radovid stopped them.
Well, I guess, it stands to reason that witch-hunters started with the most mage-infested cities in the North, and Ban Ard was one of their first stops, along with Aretuza on Thanedd.

 

[Willowhugger]

Thank you. Interesting. So Niflgaardans did cross Yaruga at Loc Muinne before Radovid stopped them.
Well, I guess, it stands to reason that witch-hunters started with the most mage-infested cities in the North, and Ban Ard was one of their first stops, along with Aretuza on Thanedd.

It depends on how widespread the Eternal Fire is.

 

[Gerald01]

1. Radovid's strategic genius seems to be less a military genius but actual strategic genius in that he has a surprisingly good skill at moving the right people into the right place at the right time. It's not so much that Radovid is very good at commanding people on the ground but that he's very good at getting people to work for him (Whoreson Junior, the Eternal Fire, Roche, the nobility of Kaedwin).

Keira Metz WOULD have worked for him voluntary if not for the fact he had no interest in her skills, probably wise given how easy it is to get the Lodge to join back together.

But the game explicitly talks about its strategical brilliance, military wise. Especially in the ending.
Are you trying to argue he indeed was a genius or agreeing the game claims something untrue as I'm saying?
Keira Metz? That's entirely on her, desperate and foolish, I don't get what's Radovid contribution to this. I mean, it's universally known he was burning mages left and right with utmost intolerance.

3. While people keep acting like Radovid invading Kaedwin and somehow gaining the resources there is insane, it's happened in real-life on many occassions as this was, in fact the means that Saladin defeated Richard the First's Crusade. Saladin invaded and conquered all of his Muslim neighbors and used their armies to defeat the Crusaders.

Uh.. that's a weird and simplicistic way of looking at it. Among many other differences, too many to list quickly, the Crusader states were the weaker and defending party.
Pre existing unrelated power struggles for S. vs a straight up invasion and annexation during an invasion by a big outside power.

Likewise, Vesemir says that Radovid intends to restore prior borders after events so it's very likely he reached an accomadation with the existing Kaedwini nobility--backing up his own candidate for the throne so he could gain their forces. So much so that he doesn't need to occupy their territory but just have them occupy it for him (as we see Emhyr achieves with Temeria in a "deal" ending).

That could very well be propaganda, plus what's the rationale about invading vs coordinating with Henselt. Still daft. The interest of the two nations coincided completely at that point. Are you claiming he wagered all this for a mere tributary condition of Kwaeden post (remote) victory? Genius my nose.

Nilfgaard's successes in this war are almost entirely won by achieving agreements with the locals. Frankly, it's about time they learned this basic lesson.

Are you referring to the possible Temerian vassal ending?

In this case, I suspect it's BECAUSE of their lack of agricultural advances they need to invade the North as the lack of mechanized farming means they cannot support a much larger population.

But that'd only work if their medicine was so good, and only happened recently, mortality was so low it'd explain a sudden demographic boom.

Plus, I find it hard to believe given the size difference between Nilfgaard and its vassals versus the Northern kindoms. Unless its climate is particularly unfavourable vs north.

 

[carlos2033]

Thank you. Interesting. So Niflgaardans did cross Yaruga at Loc Muinne before Radovid stopped them.
Well, I guess, it stands to reason that witch-hunters started with the most mage-infested cities in the North, and Ban Ard was one of their first stops, along with Aretuza on Thanedd.

I think that Geralt say to Vesemir at some point that is a matter of time before they reach Kaer Morhen, maybe their intention was to surround Radovid from both sides even Vhooris suggest to Emhyr to bribe mercenaries at Ban Glean

 

[Willowhugger]

But the game explicitly talks about its strategical brilliance, military wise. Especially in the ending.

Are you trying to argue he indeed was a genius or agreeing the game claims something untrue as I'm saying?

My general opinion on Radovid is that his military genius seems based primarily on the political side of things, which works to his favor in this game.

Pre existing unrelated power struggles for S. vs a straight up invasion and annexation during an invasion by a big outside power.

If I had been writing it, Henselt and Radovid would simply be military allies in a Iorveth path while the Invasion during the Roche path is merely so Radovid can establish his position and rally the Kaedwini around him with a mutual threat looming.

That could very well be propaganda, plus what's the rationale about invading vs coordinating with Henselt. Still daft. The interest of the two nations coincided completely at that point. Are you claiming he wagered all this for a mere tributary condition of Kwaeden post (remote) victory? Genius my nose.

Henselt is, unfortunately, an untrustworthy ally as his invasion of Aedirn despite the military compacts against Nilfgaard plus his betrayal of the Northern Alliance (making a separate peace with Nilfgaard) illustrates.

As for mere tributary conditions, Radovid doesn't require Kaedwin to be anything more than his supporter for military and coin values during the Nilfgaard invasion. He merely needs both to create his empire and hold off Nilfgaard--which is impossible without them. It's also impossible without Redania.

Kaedwin's nobility have a choice between allying with Radovid or Nilfgaard at that point. They'd prefer the Devil They KnowTM than Emhyr.

Are you referring to the possible Temerian vassal ending?

Yes, Temeria is quite willing to surrender for reasonable terms.

But that'd only work if their medicine was so good, and only happened recently, mortality was so low it'd explain a sudden demographic boom.

Plus, I find it hard to believe given the size difference between Nilfgaard and its vassals versus the Northern kindoms. Unless its climate is particularly unfavourable vs north.

Nilfgaard is a slave-based economy so its also very likely the expansionism has other motivations as those tend to favor larger and larger territory for slave owner as opposed to freemen.