The thing about Vincent is that in a competitive NG deck as he is now will always be included.
It's nice to be able to protect certain cards from damage with a shield and from poison with veil and now you give one faction a 5 point body to punish you for it and even if you don't play into it he'll still find easy value with his Vincent regardless.
He's basically the hard defender counter (bar the SY match-up) and alternatively now the killer of the 7p veil engines.
In the Dwarves match-up he kills a resilient unit. In the ST match-up he kills a Hamadryad.
In the mirror he can kill a Hefty Helge. Against NR he kills whichever bronze Adalia procs. With every faction there's just a card that's an easy Vincent target. Of course it also procs the beloved Masquerade Ball. I don't like these strong control cards that
always find value because in my 'game philosophy' running control should be a conscious choice because there ought to be a big risk factor there. That risk factor should be your strong control card bricking as it's being played around. When that's not there you just slap in control cards and maybe they hit expected value and maybe they just win you the game.
Forest protector is a very strong auto include card essentially because of the nature's rebuke interaction. That's a 5 point body that deals 5 damage and if it kills whatever it targets it gets boosted by 2. So a ceiling of 12 direct points (removal value notwithstanding) Compare that to the ceiling Vincent has. You can make the argument that Vincent is riskier because of the condition but that's the thing, that argument just gets weaker and weaker as more cards with statuses roll out and I think the argument is weak with the current meta anyway.
Imagine you're playing an immortals deck (might be painful to imagine, but try
) you build around a certain idea/card and you already have a 1001 ways to lose the game. Now there's this hyper punish card (which is auto-include) going around. Some will argue (well you trade up in terms of provisions, so you actually win in this scenario) but that's just not true when it shuts a big part of your strategy down.
TL;DR I think the 5 point body is too strong and it just finds great targets way too easily.