What are the odds on getting a legendary from kegs?

[Balgar-bard-slayer]

Just curious about the odds for getting
Legendary
Epic
Rare
In the card kegs.

So I just opened another 25 Skelliga kegs today, as it is the faction I have the least cards for. And after opening over 50 Skelliga kegs in the last few days, I was surprised to find there weren't any legendaries.

(As an aside, I also seem to keep getting offered the same epics and rares)

So, I looked back at my card collection, and the only legendary cards I have for Skelliga are from purchasing Throne Breaker. It's not a massive problem, as I can always craft cards with scraps. But I guess I'm curious if this is typical, or whether I've just been particularly unlucky.

Also is it truly random, or is it like some other online card games, where they nudge the percentages on real world money purchases?

 

[Y_A_M_A]

It's pure rng, I had similar problem with Novigrad kegs ( I've opened 60 kegs and got 1 Legendary ). Epic cards drop rate seems to be reasonable on the other hand with Legendary cards you can open open 50 kegs and get none. There was many posts over the years why there is no pity timer. From my experience usually I'm getting 1 Legendary per 15-20 kegs ( but sometimes 2-3 per 10 kegs. )

Also is it truly random, or is it like some other online card games, where they nudge the percentages on real world money purchases?

I may be wrong but I think it's random ( percentage drop rate for legendary cards must be very low - like 1% for first 4 cards and 2% for last 3? ) and have nothing to do with amount of money you spend.

 

[Philido]

I got four legendaries from roughly 30 Nilfgaard kegs, it's really just luck. Drop rates would be very good to know

 

[DRK3]

There are no official data on drop rates. If you look on these forums however there is some data collected by helpful users that posted that data, they are old posts but i dont think the drop rates have changed at all since the launch of Homecoming.

Personally, on 50 kegs i expect 1-2 legendaries on average, of course that means getting 0 or 3 is also not surprising.

(EDIT) Here's one of such threads, the sample might not be big enough to call the drop rates accurate, but it gives you some numbers

Kegs Drop-rate Analysis (Premium, Epic, Gold)

Retired the old thread (found here). The pre-Homecoming stats: Number of Kegs Needed to get 100%: 904 Average Mill Value Per Keg: 85,67 Epic Drop-rate: 25,84% Legendary Drop-rate: 7,67% Let's see how it goes in Homecoming. FYI, the required amount of scraps needed to complete your collection...

forums.cdprojektred.com

 

[RichardIgnanz]

I only know of a pity timer.
40 kegs for legendary
20 kegs for epic
card

Number of kegs to purchase

 

[DRK3]

I only know of a pity timer.
40 kegs for legendary
20 kegs for epic
card

Number of kegs to purchase

There is NO pity timer currently in Gwent. Even on that thread you posted there is no such statement, from official sources.

 

[irrrregular]

Its very uncertain.
The faction I have the most luck is Syndicate, lots of epics and sometimes 2 legendaries in about 15-20 kegs.
Northern Realm kegs only comes 4-5p cards, its the worst by far.

 

[Anciluart]

I only know of a pity timer.
40 kegs for legendary

My pity timmer is broken then, 69 kegs to get one legendary

 

[RichardIgnanz]

There is NO pity timer currently in Gwent. Even on that thread you posted there is no such statement, from official sources.

The following statement looks official to me:
https://forums.cdprojektred.com/index.php?threads/gwent-ask-a-dev.8684150/post-11521372

 

[bojerbela]

My pity timmer is broken then, 69 kegs to get one legendary

My longest streak without a single legendary was 41 Kegs. Two times.
My stats (after opening 1541 Kegs since the first day of Open Beta)
- LEGENDARY IN A KEG: 95 (6,16%)
- EPIC IN A KEG: 351 (22,78%)

 

[DRK3]

The following statement looks official to me:
https://forums.cdprojektred.com/index.php?threads/gwent-ask-a-dev.8684150/post-11521372

Thanks, i had never seen that post from Burza. And im surprised, because i've seen so many threads talking about this topic, without any conclusive information.

Even then, i dont fully believe that information. I've seen so many complaints stating that they've opened more than 40 kegs without a legendary, if it was just one or two i could disregard it, but its too many to ignore, also the time since that post and now, changes could have been implemented into the game without general knowledge.

 

[kikosalazar]

I think its around 2-5% based on my casual observations.

 

[Subyte]

Hi - question to the developer. Have the odds of getting a legendary or epic card changed with the latest release / update? I purchased 50 kegs and found in total 0 legendary cards and 4 epic cards...

 

[4RM3D]

Hi - question to the developer. Have the odds of getting a legendary or epic card changed with the latest release / update? I purchased 50 kegs and found in total 0 legendary cards and 4 epic cards...

Nope. Unfortunately, you were just unlucky.

 

[Luckless_Jack]

I keep track of all my keg openings, but haven't processed the data since early homecoming.

For what it's worth, my stats for Open Beta kegs were as follows -

Opened 2410 kegs in total (across 1 main and 4 alt accounts). These gave -

• 121 Legendaries (I missed out on the guaranteed Legendary day, so this figure is pure)
• 692 Epics (This figure was boosted due to 146 kegs being opened during the guaranteed Epic week)
• 2695 Rares
• 8542 Commons

So overall -

• 1 Legendary every 19.9 kegs
• 1 Epic every 3.5 kegs (this was 1 Epic every 4.4 kegs without the Epic week kegs)

These drop rates seem to tally with results that others have reported previously of approximately 1 Legendary every 20 kegs (i.e. about 1% of cards opened) and 1 Epic every 4 or 5 kegs. (i.e. between 4% and 5% of cards opened).

Some of my accounts were luckier than others. My main account only dropped a Legendary every 23.7 kegs on average, from 1184 kegs. My least used account only dropped 4 Legendaries in 197 kegs. If CDPR's implementation of the random number generation code works adequately, I would expect the drop rates for each account to tend towards the mean in the longer term.

Prior to the Midwinter release, including during Closed Beta, I never had a string of more than 39 kegs without a Legendary (on each individual account). A Legendary would always appear without fail in the 40th keg. After the Midwinter release, I had 11 strings of more than 40 kegs without a Legendary. Once, it took until the 89th keg to get one.

So the data supports the theory of there being a pity timer for Legendaries at 40 kegs up until the Midwinter release of Open Beta, and not thereafter.

For Epics, I had several strings of over 20 kegs without an Epic, once it took 32 kegs to get one. However, there may have been a pity timer of 20 kegs for either an Epic or a Legendary, as the data supports that scenario.

The past comments from both Jason and Pawel have not really been definitive as far as I can tell on whether pity timers still exist, and if so, what they are exactly. Perhaps they need to look into this properly and provide the players with a definitive answer for what the implemented code is actually doing at the moment - not what they think it's doing. I'm not sure whether there is a legal requirement for disclosing this officially or not at present. It might depend on individual country's gambling laws and regulations.

Anyway, perhaps some of you may have found this info at least somewhat useful.

 

[Solitude]

Hi - question to the developer. Have the odds of getting a legendary or epic card changed with the latest release / update? I purchased 50 kegs and found in total 0 legendary cards and 4 epic cards...

I purchased 60 kegs and didn't get a legendary. The worst was that I bought it with actual cash.

However after playing a bit, I bought another 10 kegs with ore and got a legendary in the last keg that I opened.

 

[BartonFink]

Just curious about the odds for getting
Legendary
Epic
Rare
In the card kegs.

For the latest expansion, I used gold to get 66 kegs. I got all the Mon cards and around 12/15 for the rest, from memory. Underwhelmed by this expansion so glad I didn't pay for this.

I don't really plan to try and complete my other factions by buying kegs as I've got enough cards from each that I just seem to be wasting ore buying kegs to get cards which I already have. Sucks!

 

[uber_croupier]

It's ~1/20, at least for me.

 

[RichardIgnanz]

I have a statistic for 497 kegs with Prestige 5 which guarantees 1 premium card. I didn't keep track of the premiums as most of them were common, some rare, I do remember 1 epic and 1 legendary premium.
Overall it was in every keg:
5,03% Legendary
21,3% Epic

Every keg had at least 2 rare cards or higher, 14 kegs had 3 rare or higher and 2 kegs had 4 rares.
The longest strike without legendary was 51 kegs.

 

[bojerbela]

After 3050 hrs. in the game I made my own statistics about Keg Openings (Drop Rate). I made 3 categories:
1. Normal Kegs
2. Special Kegs (5th card was guaranteed Premium)
3. Premium Kegs

1. Normal Kegs: 1307
Epic Gold: 273 (20,89%)
Epic Gold Premium: 33 (2,52%)
Legendary Gold: 71 (5,43%)
Legendary Gold Premium: 11 (0,84%)

2. Special Kegs: 295
Epic Gold: 19 (6,44%)
Epic Gold Premium: 44 (14,92%)
Legendary Gold: 5 (1,69%)
Legendary Gold Premium: 11 (3,73%)

3. Premium Kegs: 172
Epic Gold Premium: 42 (24,42%)
Legendary Gold Premium: 12 (6,98%)

All Kegs: 1774
Epic Gold: 292 (16,46%)
Epic Gold Premium: 119 (6,71%)
Legendary Gold: 76 (4,28%)
Legendary Gold Premium: 34 (1,92%)