Here are some lessons from the past.
- 2011 - TW3 began development
- 2013 - TW3 was formally announced
- 2015 - TW3 was released after a small delay
So the game was announced after 2 years of being in development and released 2 years after the announcement.
So it took CDPR roughly 4 years to deliver TW3.
Here's our current timeline for TW4.
- 2022 - it is revealed that a new Witcher game is being worked on (then known as Project Polaris)
- 2022 to 2024 - the game is in pre-production for 2 years
- 2024 - the game entered full production in November 2024
- 2024 - TW4 formally revealed in December 2024
So far, we are following the same pattern. TW4 was formally announced after being in development (albeit pre-production) for at least 2 years now.
So in my opinion, we are at least 2 years away from release.
The most optimistic release date is the end of 2026. More realistic release is sometime in 2027.
I expect more smaller teasers (such as another cinematic trailer, screenshots etc.) throughout 2025 with the full blown marketing campaign starting in 2026.
Another thing we must take into account are next gen consoles which are at least 2-3 years away maybe even more.
If CDPR wants TW4 to be one of the flagship games for PS6, they might want to sync the release date of the game with the release of PS6. That might cause further delays.
What do you guys think? Vote in the poll or let me know in the comments!
I will be personally voting for 2026 cause I prefer to be optimistic!
Note: I know there's been a recent 'leak' of 2025 release date but to me that hardly means anything. I'd be extremely surprised if we got the game next year.
- 2011 - TW3 began development
- 2013 - TW3 was formally announced
- 2015 - TW3 was released after a small delay
So the game was announced after 2 years of being in development and released 2 years after the announcement.
So it took CDPR roughly 4 years to deliver TW3.
Here's our current timeline for TW4.
- 2022 - it is revealed that a new Witcher game is being worked on (then known as Project Polaris)
- 2022 to 2024 - the game is in pre-production for 2 years
- 2024 - the game entered full production in November 2024
- 2024 - TW4 formally revealed in December 2024
So far, we are following the same pattern. TW4 was formally announced after being in development (albeit pre-production) for at least 2 years now.
So in my opinion, we are at least 2 years away from release.
The most optimistic release date is the end of 2026. More realistic release is sometime in 2027.
I expect more smaller teasers (such as another cinematic trailer, screenshots etc.) throughout 2025 with the full blown marketing campaign starting in 2026.
Another thing we must take into account are next gen consoles which are at least 2-3 years away maybe even more.
If CDPR wants TW4 to be one of the flagship games for PS6, they might want to sync the release date of the game with the release of PS6. That might cause further delays.
What do you guys think? Vote in the poll or let me know in the comments!
I will be personally voting for 2026 cause I prefer to be optimistic!
Note: I know there's been a recent 'leak' of 2025 release date but to me that hardly means anything. I'd be extremely surprised if we got the game next year.