Wrong predictions 25 years later

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Not that far off really. Germany is the economic powerhouse of Europe in 2020, and even today it is the one European country that has handled the ressesion the best.

A recent study published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung shows that the current level of German debt is historically the highest ever seen in peacetime.

But it's true, Germany resist the best in comparaison with the other european countries, Not very reassuring in fact.
 
In response to B52's list, I've bea few response observations
- The euro/dollar currency.
The Euro has bee a long time coming really. What interests me is the rise of a non-nationally backed , encrypted currency that is used as a unit of trade (BitCoin). I can defintiely see something like this sued on the street for payment instead of Euros

Let me ask to Satoshi... ...mmm... He says that he has developed this protocol as soon as he knew that CDPROJEKT would work on CP2K77. Bitcoin will finish its emissions in 2140, so it's playable...
 
In response to B52's list, I've bea few response observations


- The final crash (data/states), for the moment...

There will never be A Final Crash. There will be a series of Transformations.

If the central banks FED, BCE, BOE and BOJ continue to rotate the printing money all goes well ... According to them, no risk to generate unlimited money. When the bubble will burst we will all be splashed. For me it smells the big collapse with all its consequences... But it's true, we can call it transformation if you prefere.
 
Right : The powers of the medias on the mass addicted to thrash "real" TV shows, Infotainment and soap operas ... and commercials for selling more "hype" products, mass hypnosis to ignore a chaotic world outside.

Wrong : All the writers of the cyberpunk era dreamed about the "cow boy hacker" cracking dataforts but nobody expected the social networks impact on the world, such movements as Anonymous, zeitgheist, Wikileaks, ... Ok, only a few have.
 
Yeah I've been keeping an eye on Anonymous for a while now. While some of them are your classic "I screw people over because I can" hacker types others in the movement are actually doing some good.

Sort of makes you wonder if hacking in CP2077 shouldn't be a group effort rather then a lone cowboy.
Perhaps the "Interface" skill should be exchanged for "Network" (or something similar), a hackers ability to contact others at a moment's notice and collectively do whatever.
 
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Bumping a necro thread, sorry not sorry.

A lot of people are talking about how Mike managed to get the formation of the European union right which is huge, but are arguing back and forth about the power of the Eurozone within 2020. I would like to second what a lot of people are saying, in that Germany is still a huge economic power. That being said, ten years ago the Euro was REALLY strong, stronger than the dollar for a while. Then there is also the key difference between the Eurozone in 2020 and the one we have today. The one in 2020 intentionally excluded Greece, Italy, and Spain. The debt those three countries have racked up are mostly responsible for the position the Euro is in today.

What he did get wrong was the merging with the dollar, which has yet to happen. That being said it still very much could happen if European nations move forward with the TTIP agreement. The agreement is intended to make the trade laws in other nations more closely match those of the United States to better facilitate trade. It is not far fetched for another followup bill years down the line to unify currency as a next step. All three of those agreements (TTIP, Eurobuck of 2020, theoretical Euro-dollar agreement) would be intended to stack things in the favor of the US, but could easily play into Europe's hands.

People have also failed to mention one of the biggest things that Mike got right, and that was the rise of Agro-corps. Monsanto and others are buying up huge swathes of farm lands, and those they can't buy they force into complex legal agreements that give a damn near monopoly on seed purchase. If you have traveled to Iowa or other traditionally agricultural states you will see the effects of it. The jobs that once existed for homestead farmers aren't there anymore. The young can leave, did. All that is left is the agro-corps taking all the work, and the aging local population with nowhere else to go. Granted, those who left just moved to the city; they never formed nomadic biker gangs.

A number of small details also became a reality, nothing major or prophetic but noticeable none the less. The one that comes to mind is the emergence of "oxygen bars". Places where people go and pay money to huff oxygen. It's supposed to give you a high or something, but it's a recent thing that Mike totally fucking called.

He predicted the end of the Cold War, the reunification of Germany, and the collapse of the Soviet Union (although he was a little off on what Russia would call itself after). He was even pretty close with the year.

There are a number of other accurate predictions that he may not have been responsible for personally, but that the Cyberpunk genre as a whole got right. First and foremost the rise of post-occupation Japan as a major technological and cultural powerhouse. Japan managed to so closely match the Cyberpunk version of Japan it's almost eerie. In fact a story comes to mind. After the success of Neuromancer, William Gibson took up travelling to Japan with some frequency (he had never been before writing the book). He was at a bar looking out of Tokyo when a a journalist spotted him. The journalist walked over to him as he was staring out the window and said in broken English, "See? Tokyo real Bladerunner town". So much of our terminology for digital technology did not exist prior to the creation of the Cyberpunk genre. At the time of writing those books probably made almost no sense, but now those words are common; they have meaning because people like Phillip K. Dick, William Gibson, and Mike Pondsmith gave them meaning. Cyberspace, the web, wireless cell service; all these things were created because of Cyberpunk. Not the other way around.

Naturally this begs the question, did Mike Pondsmith really predict any of these? Or did they happen because he wrote about them?
 
If you study technology you can fairly well predict what's possible now and what probably going to happen in the future.

When "Hunt for Red October" came out the author, Tom Clancy, got visits from the FBI, CIA, and assorted other alphabet soup agencies demanding to know where he got some of the tech details in his book. He pointed to a large stack of "Popular Mechanics" and "Popular Electronics" magazines.
 
Well, it's just a good research work in fields like tech, politics and economy. Contacting people working in those fields could give you quite a good insight in the near future.

Certainly the first time I heard about TTIP Eurobucks came to my mind, but I think that it's use, as in the case of the universal polyglot streetslang, respond to an in-rpg decision to make things easier, just as common language and gold coins.

Not just the debt in those three countries are the reason of the fall of the Euro (Ireland, Belgium and Cyprus are more indebted than Spain, and France and UK are coming closer to it, with Germany soon following). The slowdown in the economics of the strongest EU Countries (England, France and Germany) and the growth in USA are factors to account.
Even some voices in Spain claim that the depreciation of Euro can raise exportations.... Not sure yet, there are general elections on December 20th and many interests are at stake....
 
Ons thing to point out is that Mike did not predict the reunification of Germany, nor fall of the Soviet Union. Those were current events going on just before 2020 was written. Anyone familiar with 2013 will remember that in that game, Germany was still two countries. Mike changed it retroactively because of Germany's actual reunification in the late 1980s.
 
Ons thing to point out is that Mike did not predict the reunification of Germany, nor fall of the Soviet Union. Those were current events going on just before 2020 was written. Anyone familiar with 2013 will remember that in that game, Germany was still two countries. Mike changed it retroactively because of Germany's actual reunification in the late 1980s.

Actually, the reunification was 1990, when 2020 was published. I was never sure if Mike looked at the events of 1988-89 - when he was writing 2020 - and took a guess or decided well beforehand and went all-in.

In any case, the USSR didn't finally drop until mid to late 1991, quite awhile after 2020 came out. Although damned if I can remember that being in the first edition of 2020 we read in 1990.

I remember being impressed he got the german reunification in there, since it was happening around us as we read the book, but....yeah, I'm pretty sure I remember reading about the USSR breakup and going, "Huh, wonder if that's going to happen." And then it did, the next year.

Predicting the Eurozone was also pretty cool. He called it for 92, it happened in 93. Again, like the USSR breakup and German unification, the signs were there but it was -still- cool to see it in print and be playing it before it happened in reality.

He got a lot of the tech stuff wrong - or dated it too aggressively. The Middle East focus was less..and then the meltdown was a lot more. His timeline called for some pretty aggressive corporate and DEA activity that didn't happen. The U.S. remained whole.

So he got lots wrong, but also some really cool stuff right.
 
Mike mentioned once that he added the reunification of Germany specifically because of it happening at the time. The same with the fall of the USSR. That all occured as he was writing 2020.
 
Mike mentioned once that he added the reunification of Germany specifically because of it happening at the time. The same with the fall of the USSR. That all occured as he was writing 2020.

Cool. Did not know that.

It was still pretty bold, because neither had actually happened yet, although Germany was almost certain..but the reunification of the USSR was not. NOw it seems quite certain, but at the time, we all watched, wondering what would happen next.

It's interesting that Mike went with the Soviet regaining some ground, a fear at the time when the Communists were popular and it looked like Russia might lean back hard left.

Still could happen, I guess. History is that weird creature you're sure you can predict...and then bites you where you live.
 
Well, specifically, German reunification had just been completed. It wasn't still in progress. It had begin under Reagan's Presidency and completed by 1990. I'll need to look up Mike's exact statement.
 
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Well, specifically, German reunification had just been completed. It wasn't still in progress. It had begin under Reagan's Presidency and completed by 1990. I'll need to look up Mike's exact statement.

Yeah, but Mike was writing 2020 during the process. The book came out in 1990. The Wall came down in, what, October 89? November? So he must have been writing it or just finished writing it as the Wall was coming down.

It still took a year to finalize the actual reunification. Could have gone wrong. DIdn't the East German leader say only months before how the Wall would stand for decades or centuries? So in early 1989, East Germany felt secure. Then the thin with Hungary happened and then the Wall.

Pretty cool to put that in your corebook. I think a lot of people would have hedged their bets. Lots could still go wrong, after all.

I'd like to ask Mike what writing 2020 was like, as these events took place. I wonder if it felt like he was trying to keep up to history?
 
Yeah, but Mike was writing 2020 during the process. The book came out in 1990. The Wall came down in, what, October 89? November? So he must have been writing it or just finished writing it as the Wall was coming down.

It still took a year to finalize the actual reunification. Could have gone wrong. DIdn't the East German leader say only months before how the Wall would stand for decades or centuries? So in early 1989, East Germany felt secure. Then the thin with Hungary happened and then the Wall.

Pretty cool to put that in your corebook. I think a lot of people would tave hedged their bets. Lots could still go wrong, after all.

I'd like to ask Mike what writing 2020 was like, as these events took place. I wonder if it felt like he was trying to keep up to history?

The addition of Germany's reunification was a last minute addition. Do yes, he was trying to keep up with current events.
 
The addition of Germany's reunification was a last minute addition. Do yes, he was trying to keep up with current events.

Well, the Eurozone and the Soviet fall weren't - and hadn't happened yet. And the reunification of Germany is only certain from our perspective. It wasn't finalized untill 1990, late 1990 at that.

After 2020 came out, in...mid 1990? June, I want to say. Months after he edited that in, then Germany was reunited.


So, yeah, he was taking a risk on Germany, albeit a fairly small one. That's what I meant by trying to keep up with history, which can be very changeable. He had to guess how it would go as it was happening.
 
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