Just 2 fogs actually; enough to give a solid 68% chance of getting oneOK so that means your deck had 3 fog cards, 3 horns for a deck of 28. You have a crone and vampire muster card still in your hand.
I wouldn't call 43% "most likely". It's actually 'less likely'. That's for a scorch. For an extra decoy or frost it's just 31%. In fact, with your somewhat bloated deck even >1 reavers is now down to 45%, and the dragon to 47% (twin catapults, same as twin medics is 21% - definitely off the table), and everything below 50% I consider debatable.In my initial 10 I had none. Most likely I would have pulled one from the spy cards I used.
I pass.Since you played a weather card I now play a 10 point hero card. Either Roche or Phillipa. Doesn't matter really so let's say Roche for argument's sake
So let's recap: You have 6 cards left. On the close combat row you have (1 - 4 point spy, 1 - 5 point spy, 1 - 10 point Draug hero, 3 - 4 point arachas) 1 horn. Total close combat is 52 points.
You also have 1 - 6 point arachas on siege row. Grand total points = 58 Do you agree with this summary?
I have 1 -10 point hero card on close combat row for 10 points.
I have on the range row 1 - 5 point reaver and 1 - 6 point card. There is rain so my point total is just 2 for the row, and 12 points grand total. I have 9 cards left.