KnightofPhoenix said:
I find it very improbable, in fact impossible, that Philippa was not able to sense Triss in the figurine even though it was right on her desk, when Vanhemmar can sense Triss approaching the camp from a distance as a figurine.
Philippa had to know.
I want to discuss this point with you:
Vanhemmar sensed the jade statuette, not the Triss figurine inside. Why would Philippa suspect anything from the jade statuette, even if she did sense it? As far as she could have been concerned, it was just another magical item Cynthia was playing around with (if it was magical at that stage, since Cynthia could have charmed it later on).
Besides, just because the jade statuette was on her desk, doesn't mean Triss was inside at that time. It could have been prior to her capture.
If Triss was inside the Jade statuette on her desk and she did in fact know about it, one would think that she would guard it better! Remember the precautions she took to guard the counter-spell to Saskia's charm? I find it very hard to believe that Philippa would be careless enough to let a fellow lodge member - someone who knew all her secrets, previous dealings, and inner workings of the lodge - be so easily reachable.
Then there is Triss' testimony. She said that she went to Philippa's house, and was taken by surprise by Cynthia's attack while Philippa was out. Philippa did not send Cynthia out to capture Triss, it was Triss that ran into Cynthia.
Philippa is cold and calculating, but if she has a soft spot for anything, it would be her fellow lodge members. When Geralt tells Phillipa that Sile ordered the mercenaries she sent to kill Triss along with the king slayers, she was furious. I played that scene multiple times, and she wasn't acting, she was genuinely surprised and angry at Sile's decision. I find it unlikely that Philippa would resort to harming Triss before Triss actually showed any intention to interfere.
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My take on it: A series of unfortunate events. After Geralt delivered Triss' bandanna to Philippa, they were side tracked by external events (such as the mob accusing Stennis of poisoning Saskia) before she had the chance to properly search for her. Later on, while Philippa was out, Triss walks into her house by chance. Cynthia sensing a great opportunity, attacks Triss and turns her into the figurine.
She tells Vanhemmar of this recent development using magical means while Philippa was still out. She could have then charmed the statuette or choose it because it was magical to begin with, and told Vanhemmar to keep a look out for it.
This also adds up with Nilfgaards hasty departure from Henselt's camp in the middle of the night as soon as they got the Triss figurine. They didn't even pack up their camp and supplies, so it wasn't preplanned or they would have been better prepared for it.