I have compiled this table with all patches and dates and based on that I figured I might go ahead and do some speculations regarding the next update. (Please note, nothing is official and everything should be considered an assumption I have made):
The first thing I would like to point out is that the Build ID column is probably not that helpful, especially the percentage of change. The reason for this is that is likely only reflects the time passed from one update to the next, which the other columns already do.
Another metric I would like to use is the one provided here:
CDPR now - this was different shortly after the release of the game - usually has a build one to three weeks on their cdpr_internal_qa branch before pushing it to public. This was different for 1.20 and 1.30, where both where on cdpr_internal_qa for six weeks if memory serves me right.
Given the time between the last release and the last update of cdpr_internal_qa, it seems therefore likely that the next patch will be a major one again (1.4?). However, if it is a major one we should not expect it earlier than mid of November (17.11.2021).
I also assume that 1.4 will not be the next gen version, but rather 1.5 which will then be released in Q1 next year.
Finally, as I've said before my guess is as good as anyone's and CDPR might have changed their internal working(s) and release scheduling mechanics. My speculations are purely based on data we have from the past.
Edit - 20.10.2021: I wanted to wait a full month before editing this post but given the recent Twitter message I decided to do this now. So, CDPR just posted the following statement:
This throws any speculations if the next-gen update for Cyberpunk 2077 will be released in 2021 out of the windows because they clearly state that it will come in 2022Q2. However, the question that remains is if this will be the next update, or if another one will be released in between this timeframe.
What strikes me as odd now, is that the Steam repository linked above has still not been updated and this has never happened before. They usually started updating it a week or two after a release of a patch. Now, the repository is dormant. From my perspective this could have the following reasons:
1) They have changed how they are working with this repository and the QA repository has been abandoned on purpose. This would also fit in the narrative that CDPR has changed the way the develop games in general and switched to a more agile form of development. That being said, a more agile way of developing would in my understanding also lead to more frequent and smaller updates. So, we would yet have to see those more frequent updates but maybe they are now also in a phase where they have to apply the planned changes. As a result, they are now more focused on themselves than on actual development. Finally, I have to read up on what agile means in terms of game development in particular.
2) It could mean that they are still working on a patch but this time it takes longer than expected and the current patch is more drawn out since the developers are focused on the expansions and the next-gen update. If the QA repository is still used and the next patch is a major one, then I would not expect this update before December. Personally, I think that 1.4 could be release on Cyberpunk 2077's birthday end the next-gen update (1.5) at the end of February.
I've also compiled these patch dates of Witcher 3 and corss-referenced them a bit with Cyberpunk but I haven't found anything interesting. I still think it might be worth sharing it here.
Edit 29.10.2021:
The QA repository of Steam has been updated on 28.10.2021 for the first in almost two months. This shows that the QA repository is still in use and given the rather long pause between updates it hints to a larger patch like 1.2 and 1.3 than a smaller one. Given that a larger patch spends longer in QA than a smaller one with more frequent updates in between, this means that the new patch could be released on 9.12.2021. Who knows, maybe we get another livestream in the release December week as well.
Edit 30.10.2021:
CDPR has updated their roadmap image:
This graphic shows that there won't be any kind of update in 2021 and therefore it is likely that that which has been pushed to the QA repository is the next-gen upgrade.
Edit 1.12.2021: A few things happened since my last updated of this thread and also new information has been provided. In this regard, I would like to thank both, @Andrew_Waples for linking a relevant interview as well as @MrGuyton for providing a translation. Furthermore, I would like to thank @Dexhii for the tl;dr of the November's investors call even though I listened to it for its entire length.
Now, we have learned that there won't be a 1.4 patch and the next-gen upgrade will be released alongside the next patch which will be titled 1.5. Thus, there won't be any updates for Cyberpunk 2077 in 2021. According to CDPR, 1.5 is scheduled to arrive in 2022Q2, but neither a specific date, nor a specific month have been mentioned.
As shown in the graphic above, roughly one-thrid of CDPR's developer's are still working on the next gen version, compared to the 60% in 2021Q1 or 40% in 2021Q2. Thus, the pace at which new updates are released should be reduced a bit, unless the company has grown in the meantime.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the steam QA repository has been updated for the first time since 1.31 on 28.10.2021 but it has not been updated since. Keeping the QA repository dormant for a month is a new move and has not happened since the release of Cyberpunk 2077. So, without any knowledge of the interview or the investor's call I would have a bit of a difficulty discerning whether the patch was around the corner, or if this patch is tested more thoroughly than previous patches. However, given the information we have this points to 1.5 being more extensively tested than any patch before.
With that being said, it is not unlikely that 1.5 is currently feature complete and could still be released in December, if CDPR was to rush it. But given they have obviously learned from their past mistakes, they want to be certain that 1.5 does not have any major issues. (This underlines my assumption that the next-gen upgrade is regarded as a soft re-release by CDPR.) Given the seemingly advanced state of 1.5, I would also assume that this patch is more likely to be released in early Q1 than in late Q1 and personally I would guess the release date to be late January and I will also keep my fingers crossed that my guesstimate is correct.
Edit 15.01.2022:
As @ElmoPelle has pointed out the QA repository has been updated again and this time I have updated the table above to reflect this change. One important distinction between all the previous patches and this one is the QA repository being dormant for at first almost two months and now almost three months. Ususally, CDPR was quicker in pushing updates to this repository and either this reflects upon size 1.5 will have or a new way of dealing with this QA repository remains to be seen.
However, if CDPR is not more delayed than I would think (hope?), than this could very likely be the feature complete version of 1.5. What now remains to be done is finding and fixing all the bugs introduced by these changes. If I''m right with my assumption, the QA repository should be updated within a week (or two at most) and after a while, more frequent, almost daily updates should follow.
So, based on the data we currently have I would guesstimate that 1.5 will not be released in January, but a mid-late February release currently seems possible. Considering CDPR will want to guarantee that as few bugs as possible will be introduced, this could lead to the release being delayed until late February or early March.
Another thing I recently considered was that CDPR will likely want to time the first expansion closer to the release of 1.5 than we would expect. Usually, it is best to release DLCs as soon as possible, because this way you have the highest number of potential customers. However, CDPR has definitively missed the train on that, so they probably want to time the release around 1.5. Please be aware that I do not expect the first expansion to drop immediately after the release. For me, it seems more like that it will be released 3 months later (instead of 6 months later).
Since I mentioned the number of player before I also had a look at Witcher 3's and Cyberpunk 2077's player base which I wanted to share:
Cyberpunk 2077:
Witcher 3:
I did this because a few days ago I saw the comparison that Witcher 3 has more players than Cyberpunk 2077 and is therefore more of a success. Thus I decided to pick similar time frames of both games, i.e. after the first drop off in players single player games usually experience and for the same period (10 months). I have excluded the release of the second expansion for Witcher 3, since it saw a massive player increase, but the first one is included in the graph (15.10).
So, when both games are compared the mid-tops of Witcher 3 are at 20,711 and 23,474 players respectively, while Cyberpunk had 25,430, 21,543 and 30,304. (The last data entry might be an unfair comparison due to the game having a larger discount in the Christmas sale than Witcher 3 probably had in December.) As a result, I would argue that both games are equally successful based on the number of players.
Edit 25.01.2002:
As pointed out by @ElmoPelle the Steam QA repository has been updated ten days after the last time. This shows that that the work on 1.5 has almost been finished and the team is in the testing stage. (Given that I do not know the way the team works, they might be entirely finished or there are a few things left that need to be integrated.) Based on the last patches I would say 1.5 will probably be released in the last week of February, or mid February if we are optimistic.
Version | Release Date | Days since Patch | Days since Mayor Upgrade | Build ID | Build ID Difference |
1.02 | 10.12.2020 | 0d | 5946108 (?) | ||
1.03 | 10.12.2020 | 0d | |||
1.04 | 12.12.2020 | 2d | |||
1.05 | 19.12.2020 | 7d | |||
1.06 | 23.12.2020 | 4d | |||
1.10 | 22.01.2021 | 30d | 43d | ||
1.11 | 28.01.2021 | 6d | |||
1.12 | 05.02.2021 | 8d | |||
1.20 | 29.03.2021 | 52d | 66d | 6431959 (?) | 8.17% |
1.21 | 14.04.2021 | 16d | |||
1.22 | 28.04.2021 | 14d | |||
1.23 | 17.06.2021 | 50d | 6840310 | 6.35% | |
1.30 | 18.08.2021 | 62d | 142d | 7179861 | 4.96% |
1.30AVX | 06.09.2021 | 19d | 7292437 | 1.57% | |
1.31 | 14.09.2021 | 8d | 7322960 | 0.42% | |
1.50 | ??.??.2022 | 123d (15.01.2022) | 150d (15.01.2022) | 8022836 | 9.56% |
The first thing I would like to point out is that the Build ID column is probably not that helpful, especially the percentage of change. The reason for this is that is likely only reflects the time passed from one update to the next, which the other columns already do.
Another metric I would like to use is the one provided here:
Cyberpunk 2077 · AppID: 1091500
Cyberpunk 2077 is an open-world, action-adventure story set in Night City, a megalopolis obsessed with power, glamour and body modification. You play as V, a mercenary outlaw going after a one-of-a-kind implant that is the key to immortality. Cyberpunk 2077 Steam charts, data, update history.
steamdb.info
NAME | DESCRIPTION | BUILD ID | TIME UPDATED |
public | 7322960 | 14.09.2021 | |
cdpr_internal_qa | testing branch | 7322960 | 08.09.2021 |
CDPR now - this was different shortly after the release of the game - usually has a build one to three weeks on their cdpr_internal_qa branch before pushing it to public. This was different for 1.20 and 1.30, where both where on cdpr_internal_qa for six weeks if memory serves me right.
Given the time between the last release and the last update of cdpr_internal_qa, it seems therefore likely that the next patch will be a major one again (1.4?). However, if it is a major one we should not expect it earlier than mid of November (17.11.2021).
I also assume that 1.4 will not be the next gen version, but rather 1.5 which will then be released in Q1 next year.
Finally, as I've said before my guess is as good as anyone's and CDPR might have changed their internal working(s) and release scheduling mechanics. My speculations are purely based on data we have from the past.
Edit - 20.10.2021: I wanted to wait a full month before editing this post but given the recent Twitter message I decided to do this now. So, CDPR just posted the following statement:
This throws any speculations if the next-gen update for Cyberpunk 2077 will be released in 2021 out of the windows because they clearly state that it will come in 2022Q2. However, the question that remains is if this will be the next update, or if another one will be released in between this timeframe.
What strikes me as odd now, is that the Steam repository linked above has still not been updated and this has never happened before. They usually started updating it a week or two after a release of a patch. Now, the repository is dormant. From my perspective this could have the following reasons:
2) It could mean that they are still working on a patch but this time it takes longer than expected and the current patch is more drawn out since the developers are focused on the expansions and the next-gen update. If the QA repository is still used and the next patch is a major one, then I would not expect this update before December. Personally, I think that 1.4 could be release on Cyberpunk 2077's birthday end the next-gen update (1.5) at the end of February.
I've also compiled these patch dates of Witcher 3 and corss-referenced them a bit with Cyberpunk but I haven't found anything interesting. I still think it might be worth sharing it here.
Version | Date | Days since patch | Days since major upgrade | Days since release |
1.01 | 17.05.2015 | 0 | ||
1.03 | 21.05.2015 | 4 | ||
1.04 | 25.05.2015 | 3 | ||
1.05 | 05.06.2015 | 10 | ||
1.06 | 15.06.2015 | 10 | ||
1.07 | 18.07.2015 | 33 | ||
1.08 | 08.08.2015 | 20 | ||
1.08.1 | 14.08.2015 | 7 | ||
1.08.2 | 18.08.2015 | 4 | ||
1.10 | 09.10.2015 | 52 | 145 | |
1.11 | 23.10.2015 | 14 | ||
Hearts of Stone | 13.10.2015 | 147 | ||
1.12 | 11.01.2016 | 80 | ||
1.12.1 | 21.01.2016 | 10 | ||
1.20 | 30.05.2016 | 130 | 234 | |
Blood and Wine | 31.05.2016 | 234 | ||
1.22 | 15.06.2016 | 15 | ||
1.24 | 16.08.2016 | 62 | ||
1.30 | 30.08.2016 | 14 | 92 | |
1.31 | 12.09.2016 | 13 | ||
1.32 | 06.11.2016 | 55 | ||
1.50 | 04.10.2017 | 332 | 400 | |
1.60 | 20.12.2017 | 77 | 77 | |
1.61 | 11.04.2018 | 112 | ||
1.62 | 16.05.2018 |
Edit 29.10.2021:
The QA repository of Steam has been updated on 28.10.2021 for the first in almost two months. This shows that the QA repository is still in use and given the rather long pause between updates it hints to a larger patch like 1.2 and 1.3 than a smaller one. Given that a larger patch spends longer in QA than a smaller one with more frequent updates in between, this means that the new patch could be released on 9.12.2021. Who knows, maybe we get another livestream in the release December week as well.
Edit 30.10.2021:
CDPR has updated their roadmap image:
This graphic shows that there won't be any kind of update in 2021 and therefore it is likely that that which has been pushed to the QA repository is the next-gen upgrade.
Edit 1.12.2021: A few things happened since my last updated of this thread and also new information has been provided. In this regard, I would like to thank both, @Andrew_Waples for linking a relevant interview as well as @MrGuyton for providing a translation. Furthermore, I would like to thank @Dexhii for the tl;dr of the November's investors call even though I listened to it for its entire length.
Now, we have learned that there won't be a 1.4 patch and the next-gen upgrade will be released alongside the next patch which will be titled 1.5. Thus, there won't be any updates for Cyberpunk 2077 in 2021. According to CDPR, 1.5 is scheduled to arrive in 2022Q2, but neither a specific date, nor a specific month have been mentioned.
As shown in the graphic above, roughly one-thrid of CDPR's developer's are still working on the next gen version, compared to the 60% in 2021Q1 or 40% in 2021Q2. Thus, the pace at which new updates are released should be reduced a bit, unless the company has grown in the meantime.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the steam QA repository has been updated for the first time since 1.31 on 28.10.2021 but it has not been updated since. Keeping the QA repository dormant for a month is a new move and has not happened since the release of Cyberpunk 2077. So, without any knowledge of the interview or the investor's call I would have a bit of a difficulty discerning whether the patch was around the corner, or if this patch is tested more thoroughly than previous patches. However, given the information we have this points to 1.5 being more extensively tested than any patch before.
With that being said, it is not unlikely that 1.5 is currently feature complete and could still be released in December, if CDPR was to rush it. But given they have obviously learned from their past mistakes, they want to be certain that 1.5 does not have any major issues. (This underlines my assumption that the next-gen upgrade is regarded as a soft re-release by CDPR.) Given the seemingly advanced state of 1.5, I would also assume that this patch is more likely to be released in early Q1 than in late Q1 and personally I would guess the release date to be late January and I will also keep my fingers crossed that my guesstimate is correct.
Edit 15.01.2022:
As @ElmoPelle has pointed out the QA repository has been updated again and this time I have updated the table above to reflect this change. One important distinction between all the previous patches and this one is the QA repository being dormant for at first almost two months and now almost three months. Ususally, CDPR was quicker in pushing updates to this repository and either this reflects upon size 1.5 will have or a new way of dealing with this QA repository remains to be seen.
However, if CDPR is not more delayed than I would think (hope?), than this could very likely be the feature complete version of 1.5. What now remains to be done is finding and fixing all the bugs introduced by these changes. If I''m right with my assumption, the QA repository should be updated within a week (or two at most) and after a while, more frequent, almost daily updates should follow.
So, based on the data we currently have I would guesstimate that 1.5 will not be released in January, but a mid-late February release currently seems possible. Considering CDPR will want to guarantee that as few bugs as possible will be introduced, this could lead to the release being delayed until late February or early March.
Another thing I recently considered was that CDPR will likely want to time the first expansion closer to the release of 1.5 than we would expect. Usually, it is best to release DLCs as soon as possible, because this way you have the highest number of potential customers. However, CDPR has definitively missed the train on that, so they probably want to time the release around 1.5. Please be aware that I do not expect the first expansion to drop immediately after the release. For me, it seems more like that it will be released 3 months later (instead of 6 months later).
Since I mentioned the number of player before I also had a look at Witcher 3's and Cyberpunk 2077's player base which I wanted to share:
Cyberpunk 2077:
Witcher 3:
I did this because a few days ago I saw the comparison that Witcher 3 has more players than Cyberpunk 2077 and is therefore more of a success. Thus I decided to pick similar time frames of both games, i.e. after the first drop off in players single player games usually experience and for the same period (10 months). I have excluded the release of the second expansion for Witcher 3, since it saw a massive player increase, but the first one is included in the graph (15.10).
So, when both games are compared the mid-tops of Witcher 3 are at 20,711 and 23,474 players respectively, while Cyberpunk had 25,430, 21,543 and 30,304. (The last data entry might be an unfair comparison due to the game having a larger discount in the Christmas sale than Witcher 3 probably had in December.) As a result, I would argue that both games are equally successful based on the number of players.
Edit 25.01.2002:
As pointed out by @ElmoPelle the Steam QA repository has been updated ten days after the last time. This shows that that the work on 1.5 has almost been finished and the team is in the testing stage. (Given that I do not know the way the team works, they might be entirely finished or there are a few things left that need to be integrated.) Based on the last patches I would say 1.5 will probably be released in the last week of February, or mid February if we are optimistic.
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