30% is not that conservative, it is pretty spot on. Of course they have their own digital distribution platform that I haven't factored in, but typical revenue figures are 10M for every 500k units shipped.
I didn't say it's a failure, just that I doubt 317M is accurate and the final quality of the game does not match that budget. If they really did and the typical rate holds true, then it kind of is a failure. At least by industry standards. They recouped their expenses and made some change so for me it's a win. They certainly made back enough to finish the game, they could have made even more had they finished it in the first place. Anyway; Let's say it is true, just for some gamer science lab shit. Rule of thumb is that you spend 2-4 times what your production budget is to really hit the big time.
CDPR does things on the cheap as much as possible and self-publishes though, even when we consider they went all out for this it's not likely they went as deep pockets as another studio would have attempting this. How much did they really spend on just the game? Outside of just running standard media blitz we have Keanu Reeves, Run The Jewels, A$AP Rocky, Grimes, music videos, etc... So, maybe the release quality does match the production budget?
Steam is obviously where the game sold the most units. and it goes down to 20% after the first 50M (25% between 10-50M). EPIC only takes 12% no matter what and GOG, for obvious reasons, is 100% in CDPR's pockets. Etc for other sellers.
Hence why I said the 30% across the board is conservative. I would really like to know what are the market share between platforms as far CP2077's sales are concerned.
I'd say the 317M budget could very well be accurate. Let's not forget that a lot of senior developers left during CP2077 development. The game did go through a problematic development. That much has been documented and would explain the final result.
Now I won't argue that there isn't a very substantial amount of money that went into stuff that would've been better invested had it been injected in the game's development itself. As much as I like Keanu Reeves, he wasn't necessary and it's probably quite a few millions that went into getting him in the game. Amongst other things.