Next patch rampant speculations

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I have compiled this table with all patches and dates and based on that I figured I might go ahead and do some speculations regarding the next update. (Please note, nothing is official and everything should be considered an assumption I have made):

VersionRelease DateDays since PatchDays since Mayor UpgradeBuild IDBuild ID Difference
1.0210.12.20200d5946108 (?)
1.0310.12.20200d
1.0412.12.20202d
1.0519.12.20207d
1.0623.12.20204d
1.1022.01.202130d43d
1.1128.01.20216d
1.1205.02.20218d
1.2029.03.202152d66d6431959 (?)8.17%
1.2114.04.202116d
1.2228.04.202114d
1.2317.06.202150d68403106.35%
1.3018.08.202162d142d71798614.96%
1.30AVX06.09.202119d72924371.57%
1.3114.09.20218d73229600.42%
1.50??.??.2022123d (15.01.2022)150d (15.01.2022)80228369.56%

The first thing I would like to point out is that the Build ID column is probably not that helpful, especially the percentage of change. The reason for this is that is likely only reflects the time passed from one update to the next, which the other columns already do.

Another metric I would like to use is the one provided here:
NAMEDESCRIPTIONBUILD IDTIME UPDATED
public732296014.09.2021
cdpr_internal_qatesting branch732296008.09.2021

CDPR now - this was different shortly after the release of the game - usually has a build one to three weeks on their cdpr_internal_qa branch before pushing it to public. This was different for 1.20 and 1.30, where both where on cdpr_internal_qa for six weeks if memory serves me right.

Given the time between the last release and the last update of cdpr_internal_qa, it seems therefore likely that the next patch will be a major one again (1.4?). However, if it is a major one we should not expect it earlier than mid of November (17.11.2021).

I also assume that 1.4 will not be the next gen version, but rather 1.5 which will then be released in Q1 next year.

Finally, as I've said before my guess is as good as anyone's and CDPR might have changed their internal working(s) and release scheduling mechanics. My speculations are purely based on data we have from the past.

Edit - 20.10.2021: I wanted to wait a full month before editing this post but given the recent Twitter message I decided to do this now. So, CDPR just posted the following statement:
1634758320620.png

This throws any speculations if the next-gen update for Cyberpunk 2077 will be released in 2021 out of the windows because they clearly state that it will come in 2022Q2. However, the question that remains is if this will be the next update, or if another one will be released in between this timeframe.

What strikes me as odd now, is that the Steam repository linked above has still not been updated and this has never happened before. They usually started updating it a week or two after a release of a patch. Now, the repository is dormant. From my perspective this could have the following reasons:

1) They have changed how they are working with this repository and the QA repository has been abandoned on purpose. This would also fit in the narrative that CDPR has changed the way the develop games in general and switched to a more agile form of development. That being said, a more agile way of developing would in my understanding also lead to more frequent and smaller updates. So, we would yet have to see those more frequent updates but maybe they are now also in a phase where they have to apply the planned changes. As a result, they are now more focused on themselves than on actual development. Finally, I have to read up on what agile means in terms of game development in particular.

2) It could mean that they are still working on a patch but this time it takes longer than expected and the current patch is more drawn out since the developers are focused on the expansions and the next-gen update. If the QA repository is still used and the next patch is a major one, then I would not expect this update before December. Personally, I think that 1.4 could be release on Cyberpunk 2077's birthday end the next-gen update (1.5) at the end of February.

I've also compiled these patch dates of Witcher 3 and corss-referenced them a bit with Cyberpunk but I haven't found anything interesting. I still think it might be worth sharing it here.

VersionDateDays since patchDays since major upgradeDays since release
1.0117.05.20150
1.0321.05.20154
1.0425.05.20153
1.0505.06.201510
1.0615.06.201510
1.0718.07.201533
1.0808.08.201520
1.08.114.08.20157
1.08.218.08.20154
1.1009.10.201552145
1.1123.10.201514
Hearts of Stone13.10.2015147
1.1211.01.201680
1.12.121.01.201610
1.2030.05.2016130234
Blood and Wine31.05.2016234
1.2215.06.201615
1.2416.08.201662
1.3030.08.20161492
1.3112.09.201613
1.3206.11.201655
1.5004.10.2017332400
1.6020.12.20177777
1.6111.04.2018112
1.6216.05.2018

Edit 29.10.2021:

The QA repository of Steam has been updated on 28.10.2021 for the first in almost two months. This shows that the QA repository is still in use and given the rather long pause between updates it hints to a larger patch like 1.2 and 1.3 than a smaller one. Given that a larger patch spends longer in QA than a smaller one with more frequent updates in between, this means that the new patch could be released on 9.12.2021. Who knows, maybe we get another livestream in the release December week as well.

Edit 30.10.2021:

CDPR has updated their roadmap image:
1635621728485.png


This graphic shows that there won't be any kind of update in 2021 and therefore it is likely that that which has been pushed to the QA repository is the next-gen upgrade.

Edit 1.12.2021: A few things happened since my last updated of this thread and also new information has been provided. In this regard, I would like to thank both, @Andrew_Waples for linking a relevant interview as well as @MrGuyton for providing a translation. Furthermore, I would like to thank @Dexhii for the tl;dr of the November's investors call even though I listened to it for its entire length.

Now, we have learned that there won't be a 1.4 patch and the next-gen upgrade will be released alongside the next patch which will be titled 1.5. Thus, there won't be any updates for Cyberpunk 2077 in 2021. According to CDPR, 1.5 is scheduled to arrive in 2022Q2, but neither a specific date, nor a specific month have been mentioned.
cdpr_devs.png

As shown in the graphic above, roughly one-thrid of CDPR's developer's are still working on the next gen version, compared to the 60% in 2021Q1 or 40% in 2021Q2. Thus, the pace at which new updates are released should be reduced a bit, unless the company has grown in the meantime.

Furthermore, it should be noted that the steam QA repository has been updated for the first time since 1.31 on 28.10.2021 but it has not been updated since. Keeping the QA repository dormant for a month is a new move and has not happened since the release of Cyberpunk 2077. So, without any knowledge of the interview or the investor's call I would have a bit of a difficulty discerning whether the patch was around the corner, or if this patch is tested more thoroughly than previous patches. However, given the information we have this points to 1.5 being more extensively tested than any patch before.

With that being said, it is not unlikely that 1.5 is currently feature complete and could still be released in December, if CDPR was to rush it. But given they have obviously learned from their past mistakes, they want to be certain that 1.5 does not have any major issues. (This underlines my assumption that the next-gen upgrade is regarded as a soft re-release by CDPR.) Given the seemingly advanced state of 1.5, I would also assume that this patch is more likely to be released in early Q1 than in late Q1 and personally I would guess the release date to be late January and I will also keep my fingers crossed that my guesstimate is correct.

Edit 15.01.2022:

As @ElmoPelle has pointed out the QA repository has been updated again and this time I have updated the table above to reflect this change. One important distinction between all the previous patches and this one is the QA repository being dormant for at first almost two months and now almost three months. Ususally, CDPR was quicker in pushing updates to this repository and either this reflects upon size 1.5 will have or a new way of dealing with this QA repository remains to be seen.

However, if CDPR is not more delayed than I would think (hope?), than this could very likely be the feature complete version of 1.5. What now remains to be done is finding and fixing all the bugs introduced by these changes. If I''m right with my assumption, the QA repository should be updated within a week (or two at most) and after a while, more frequent, almost daily updates should follow.

So, based on the data we currently have I would guesstimate that 1.5 will not be released in January, but a mid-late February release currently seems possible. Considering CDPR will want to guarantee that as few bugs as possible will be introduced, this could lead to the release being delayed until late February or early March.

Another thing I recently considered was that CDPR will likely want to time the first expansion closer to the release of 1.5 than we would expect. Usually, it is best to release DLCs as soon as possible, because this way you have the highest number of potential customers. However, CDPR has definitively missed the train on that, so they probably want to time the release around 1.5. Please be aware that I do not expect the first expansion to drop immediately after the release. For me, it seems more like that it will be released 3 months later (instead of 6 months later).

Since I mentioned the number of player before I also had a look at Witcher 3's and Cyberpunk 2077's player base which I wanted to share:

Cyberpunk 2077:
1642243162107.png


Witcher 3:
1642243209357.png


I did this because a few days ago I saw the comparison that Witcher 3 has more players than Cyberpunk 2077 and is therefore more of a success. Thus I decided to pick similar time frames of both games, i.e. after the first drop off in players single player games usually experience and for the same period (10 months). I have excluded the release of the second expansion for Witcher 3, since it saw a massive player increase, but the first one is included in the graph (15.10).

So, when both games are compared the mid-tops of Witcher 3 are at 20,711 and 23,474 players respectively, while Cyberpunk had 25,430, 21,543 and 30,304. (The last data entry might be an unfair comparison due to the game having a larger discount in the Christmas sale than Witcher 3 probably had in December.) As a result, I would argue that both games are equally successful based on the number of players.

Edit 25.01.2002:

As pointed out by @ElmoPelle the Steam QA repository has been updated ten days after the last time. This shows that that the work on 1.5 has almost been finished and the team is in the testing stage. (Given that I do not know the way the team works, they might be entirely finished or there are a few things left that need to be integrated.) Based on the last patches I would say 1.5 will probably be released in the last week of February, or mid February if we are optimistic.
 
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Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but why do people think CDPR is going to delay the next gen version? Even though they're still targeting this year? I feel like they would've already announced it's being delayed. There'd be no reason to drag this out.
 
Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but why do people think CDPR is going to delay the next gen version? Even though they're still targeting this year? I feel like they would've already announced it's being delayed. There'd be no reason to drag this out.
For me there are the following reasons:
  • Follow the money: They told their investors in their last meeting that the next-gen patch might not be released this year. I think at this point they already think it might be likely, but want to softly prepare their investors for it
  • They will take as much time as it needs for this one, since many people will consider it a soft re-launch
  • When it comes to us gamers, they tend to communicate with us as late as possible. Hence, the investors call is the only viable source of news for us.
 
For me there are the following reasons:
  • Follow the money: They told their investors in their last meeting that the next-gen patch might not be released this year. I think at this point they already think it might be likely, but want to softly prepare their investors for it
  • They will take as much time as it needs for this one, since many people will consider it a soft re-launch
  • When it comes to us gamers, they tend to communicate with us as late as possible. Hence, the investors call is the only viable source of news for us.

It varries from game to game on when they announced delays, but my experience they don't typically wait to the last minute, so to speak. Unless it's a short delay, like Battlefield 2042. The next investor update is November 29th. I think will get an update by then. For me, no news is good news.
 
It varries from game to game on when they announced delays, but my experience they don't typically wait to the last minute, so to speak.
I wasn't talking about game studios in general but CDPR. For instance, they new they were not able to release 1.20 in February contrary to the initial statement due to the hack. However, the communicated this to the public on February 26th if memory serves me right. Then, 1.20 got delayed until the end of March without any additional communication.

Likewise, 1.06 had an issue where many people had heated discussions about it, but they did not communicate anything but silently released the patch on 23.12.2020.

Hence, history shows that in terms of communication CDPR mirrors my behaviour in high school where I didn't start with the work for a project until the day before it was due. (N.B.: I wrote in terms of communication, not in terms of actual work.)
 

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I think it's worth noting the post didn't mention that they delayed any patches, free dlc, and or expansions.
I don't know about expansions, but free DLC program is waaay slower than it was in TW3 days. At this rate, it will take 12-18 months for all of them to come out. It took about 3 months for CDPR to release the final free DLC for TW3.
 
I think it's worth noting the post didn't mention that they delayed any patches, free dlc, and or expansions.
You mean the one by CDPR? Well they didn't say anything in the Twitter post because they haven't said anything about DLCs, patches and expansions in terms of planned releases to begin with.

The next-gen update was the last item where they stated that it would be released in 2021. They cannot hold this deadline so they have decided to communicate this to everyone. However, nothing is known in this regard about anything else.

I don't know about expansions, but free DLC program is waaay slower than it was in TW3 days. At this rate, it will take 12-18 months for all of them to come out. It took about 3 months for CDPR to release the final free DLC for TW3.
Yes, they were way fast and at this point we also had Blood and Wine. I honestly think that we will see another DLC drop this year and also that the expansion dates will be similar to Witcher 3, but with the next-gen update as a baseline.

Thus, if the next-gen update comes in late February, then the first expansion should arrive in July and the second one in October/November.
 
You mean the one by CDPR? Well they didn't say anything in the Twitter post because they haven't said anything about DLCs, patches and expansions in terms of planned releases to begin with.

The next-gen update was the last item where they stated that it would be released in 2021. They cannot hold this deadline so they have decided to communicate this to everyone. However, nothing is known in this regard about anything else.


Yes, they were way fast and at this point we also had Blood and Wine. I honestly think that we will see another DLC drop this year and also that the expansion dates will be similar to Witcher 3, but with the next-gen update as a baseline.

Thus, if the next-gen update comes in late February, then the first expansion should arrive in July and the second one in October/November.

I can't find the graphic, but they have different groups working on different things. One on patches, one on expansion one and one on next gen. I don't think that just because it was delayed till March, doesn't mean everything else is.
 
why is there no topic about yet another delay related to w3 and cp77 next gen release?

I mean thanks for the roadmap cdpr xDDDDDD
 
why is there no topic about yet another delay related to w3 and cp77 next gen release?

I mean thanks for the roadmap cdpr xDDDDDD
I have incorporated the delay of the Cyberpunk 2077's next-gen upgrade into the first post of this thread and from my perspective that suffices. You are free to create a thread discussing this issue.
 
I think it's worth noting the post didn't mention that they delayed any patches, free dlc, and or expansions.
You can't delay things that have no release date
IMG_20210707_210958.jpg

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first expansion should arrive in July and the second one in October/November.
I'd say first expansion not before November/December 2022 and second expansion in 2023. Depending on sales of the first expansion, too.
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why is there no topic about yet another delay related to w3 and cp77 next gen release?

I mean thanks for the roadmap cdpr xDDDDDD
There is, it was made by CDPR themselves.
 
I'd say first expansion not before November/December 2022 and second expansion in 2023. Depending on sales of the first expansion, too.
Why is that? I mean my reasoning is that the release schedule could be similar to Witcher 3, but with a different offset.

Fair point, but I think they would've stated if other projects where effected.
Considering their less-is-more approach in regards to their communication I very much doubt that. Furthermore, if the expansions or patches have been delayed they would not gain anything from communicating this now.
 
Why is that? I mean my reasoning is that the release schedule could be similar to Witcher 3, but with a different offset.


Considering their less-is-more approach in regards to their communication I very much doubt that. Furthermore, if the expansions or patches have been delayed they would not gain anything from communicating this now.

But this is a different team working on next gen, right?
 
Folks, the work being done on the next-gen updates (for TW3 and Cyberpunk) is not the same thing as the work being done on game mechanics and bug fixing. Neither of those is the same thing as the work being done on DLC and Expansion content. None of the things above is the same as the work being done on Gwent. Etc.

These projects will largely have their own teams, their own goals, and their own production schedules. YES, everything eventually needs to work together with everything else, and that's a challenge. But just because I'm working on a team that encounters a big issue with something, and it will likely create a significant delay, that has no direct bearing whatsoever on the team next door that's working on a totally different part of the same game.

Indirectly, problems can arise...and that's sometimes a reason that things get delayed. "Oh, frig -- we've got a big issue with this part, and it's going to affect those other parts as well. Let's work on this part for a bit longer, so that it doesn't interfere with those other parts."
 
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Fair point, but I think they would've stated if other projects where effected.
They surely don't want to let everybody know they're late on DLCs as well
Why is that? I mean my reasoning is that the release schedule could be similar to Witcher 3, but with a different offset.
Because I don't think they want to release anything before the next gen patch is launched and polished, together with -embarassing- bugs like the broken skill trees.
In one year they barely downgraded the graphics of the game just to get a barely acceptable frame rate on consoles, fixed the minimap and improved a cat. I don't think they can fix the biggest problems quickly and I really hope they don't want to release a messy expansion again.
Also, only few people are working on the expansions now, the vast majority of the studio is still trying to fix the engine, and, with a broken engine, you can't have a polished expansion. And again, they don't want to release a messy expension. Hopefully. IMHO it's all about the foundations of the game.
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Folks, the work being done on the next-gen updates (for TW3 and Cyberpunk) is not the same thing as the work being done on game mechanics and bug fixing. Neither of those is the same thing as the work being done on DLC and Expansion content. None of the things above is the same as the work being done on Gwent. Etc.

These projects will largely have their own teams, their own goals, and their own production schedules. YES, everything eventually needs to work together with everything else, and that's a challenge. But just because I'm working on a team that encounters a big issue with something, and it will likely create a significant delay, that has no direct bearing whatsoever on the team next door that's working on a totally different part of the same game.

Indirectly, problems can arise...and that's sometimes a reason that things get delayed. "Oh, frig -- we've got a big issue with this part, and it's going to affect those other parts as well. Let's work on this part for a bit longer, so that it doesn't interfere with those other parts."
Let's say they want to have a car chase in the expansion, but the engine can't do an interactive car chase (and we know it can't). Either they wait for engineers to implement it (and wait, equal delay) or they cut it from the game or they put it there in an bad state (like the ones in the base game).
And still, I still think that nothing will be released until the next gen patch works as it is supposed to work.
 
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