I had two consecutive draws today. What are the odds?

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Let's see. There are three possible outcomes to a match. Win, lose, draw.

So, mathematically it's 33% per outcome. :p But the first and second outcome have to be a draw. So it's 33% x 33% = about 11 %

Glad to help you out.
 
Let's see. There are three possible outcomes to a match. Win, lose, draw.

So, mathematically it's 33% per outcome. :p But the first and second outcome have to be a draw. So it's 33% x 33% = about 11 %

Glad to help you out.

That assumes that the three outcomes are all equally probable. In that case, there should be a lot cases with people with an 11% occurrence of draws. How common is that stat?

I looked at the first page of the Pro leaderboard and the first page of the non-Pro rank leaderboard today and just selected two IDs: one with the most draws in the top 8 and one which looked like it might have the highest % of draws.

In the Pro ranks, those two pretty much had a draw % of 2.6% as did the ID in the non-Pro rank with the most draws. The other ID had a draw % of nearly 2.4%.

If you just call the likelihood of getting a draw in GWENT 2.6% (a very small sample, granted), then, by your maths, the likelihood of two draws in a row would be 0.07%, which seems more plausible than your answer, which is a good theoretical answer but...

...GWENT is a game where it doesn't strike me that draws are all that common. A tie in basketball is very common, as are draws in soccer. In test cricket, ties are extremely rare. Only two in history, I believe.

Before doing this 'research', I would have thought that the answer to my question would have been "one in more than infinity" but seeing as how rigged GWENT's matchmaking is and how it loves to screw with you when you're near to Ranking up, I think that the probability of this happening is 1. That figure falls the further away you are from ranking up.

I've got another question in this vein coming up on the board.
 
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