Is Winch predictable?

[TV_JayArr]

Is Winch predictable?

I just played against a deck that drew 3 Reinforced Trebuchets and was designed to do so; Getting all 3 Reinforced Trebuchets out of your deck with Henselt, means at least 4 on the field. To be fair I think he played Battering Ram as a backup with the same procedure.
If i didn't misscount NR got 6 Machines. Thus the chance to get either a Reinforced Trebuchet or a Battering Ram is 50 % each Creation. I can't believe I say that, but add more RNG to this card! This is way too abusable and exactly what I meant weeks ago with: Play RNG -> Get lucky -> Win; Regardless of your opponent.
3 coin flips in one game as a basis for your game is ridiculously dumb, the only thing that is worse is that it works.
Apparently I did not have 7 (3 Winches, 3 Copies in the deck, Shani) Locks/8 strength removals.

 

[4RM3D]

Henselt's power swing is well known and notorious when the other player loses the coin flip. Having Winch doesn't matter when the chain is broken and playing out Henselt to force the opponent to pass, still yields the same results. Meaning the impact Winch has, is actually smaller than you would have initially guessed. Still, using Winch to pull an extra copy with Henselt is a solid tactic, but not one that is cause for alarm. The issue lies elsewhere. However, discussing this goes far beyond the scope of this thread.

 

[TV_JayArr]

Henselt's power swing is well known and notorious[...]

Thanks for the truism.

[...] Meaning the impact Winch has, is actually smaller than you would have initially guessed.[...]

A 5 value dot with 40 value bronzes bodies + 3 from henselt, 5 from shani and 4 from Síle de Tansarville (3 cards played), equals 52 points plus a 1 dot, into 4 and eventually 5; playing a long round.

[...]Still, using Winch to pull an extra copy with Henselt is a solid tactic, but not one that is cause for alarm.[...]

Solid or abusive, regarding the Create ability on the Bronze, Tactic, Special card Winch. Which surely isn't meant to gift u 3 more copies of a card you already got in your deck.
The elven scout got a restriction on its ability ( "...that is not in your starting deck ..." ), although this addition wouldn't suit Winch, because it would make it controllable in another regard.
With only 6 possible cards to draw at the moment. It is just too small of a card pool to be in the game.

[...]The issue lies elsewhere. However, discussing this goes far beyond the scope of this thread.

Why is that so? Please enlighten me.

 

[Theodrik]

I don't see any problem with Winch really. However, I believe Henselt should have a limitation on how many cards he can pull from the deck (max 2?). But honestly I saw many decks that could create similar power swings and even keep up with Henselt, if not winning R1 after he pulls out all those machines.

Also talking a bit about the Create mechanic, I was a bit skeptical about how it would work, but after playing with it for a while with a few decks and cards, I can say that it adds much more diversity and excitement to the game. What I find interesting about the RNG in Gwent with Create is that it's a controlled RNG. You're spawning units/specials that are in the the same spectrum of power level, due to how the game is balanced in terms of power, regarding Bronze, Silver and Gold cards. Of course there are some Meme cards like Uma, but overall, it's a pretty cool mechanic that adds much more flavor to the game. Maybe the only tweek I'd make is to remove CA spies from the Create card pool.

 

[4RM3D]

The elven scout got a restriction on its ability ( "...that is not in your starting deck ..." ), although this addition wouldn't suit Winch, because it would make it controllable in another regard.

You cannot compare cards between factions. You are also forgetting something very important here, case in point: Dwarven Agitator. Put only one kind of Dwarf in your deck and the Agitator is guaranteed to pull it out. Now, imagine this card for NR machines; well, you get the picture. Incidentally, the Elven Scout serves a different purpose.

With only 6 possible cards to draw at the moment. It is just too small of a card pool to be in the game.

Winch is one of the more consistent RNG cards, true. However, it only becomes a problem with Henselt; Winch is still fine, Henselt could be limited. However, like I already said, it's not really as great an issue because the combo still requires some luck, a specific setup, a good mulligan and not being countered or counter-passed.

Why is that so? Please enlighten me.

I rather not go into this. I'll just give one example: the coin flip. If the opponent has to go first against Henselt, then the player can force the opponent to go down one card in the final round by using Henselt and a spy. Here, the problem isn't Henselt or the spy, but the coin flip. This is made worse by spawning RNG spies. Meanwhile, Henselt really shines in situations like these.

 

[TV_JayArr]

[...]Incidentally, the Elven Scout serves a different purpose.[...]

I said that they are not necessarily comparable. I just mentioned a card with a Create ability that got a restriciton to clarify that CDPR itself know that restriction are to be implemented for the create cards.

[...]The elven scout got a restriction on its ability [...], although this addition wouldn't suit Winch[.][...]

Winch is one of the more consistent RNG cards, true.[...]

And there lies the problem. RNG cards are high risk, high reward. If you limit the risk but don't adjust the reward for it, they become too strong. A 50/50 is not necessarily comparible with the other create cards.
The Dwarven Agitator you mentioned beforehand was probably the first try to get create going, but it turned out it isn't. It is a tool for an archetype (dwarves) that wasn't really T1 and probably still isn't. Additionally it was/is played with movement to have up to 6 ( 7 with Operator) Dwarven Mercenaries. To use your words "Incidentally it serves a different purpose". It is a muster+multiply card, Winch itself is a spawn card using the create ability; And in the aforementioned sceario abused as a muster card.

"Consisten RNG" - using RNG as a term for artificially added random based shit going on instead of the Random Number Generator that is the base of every card game ,analog ones as well - this word combination makes me throw up. Randomness and consistency are antonyms. There is no such thing like a controlled madness or an intelligent stupidity.

[...]Winch is still fine, Henselt could be limited.[...]

Winch is not fine if it is a create card that enables the player to fairly consistently predict what card he will be able to play.
'A ram would be huge right now....hmm lets just play Winch and go for the coin flip of winning the round on even cards.';
'See that juicily lined up 7 strenghts units, I got 2 crewmen... let's just go for the Winch-Coinflip of winning the game right here.'
Praising a coin flip while complaining about one with the same breath.

[...] [T]he combo still requires some luck [and] a specific setup[.] [...]

Here we go. Heavy Luck-Dependency in a skill-based CCG Esport game, and a combo that requires a setup. The last one seems to be a special one. That remembers me of something .

[...]I'll just give one example: the coin flip. [...]

I did never understand the infantile whingeing about the coin toss. One player needs to go first, everyone should be able to realize that. It simply changes the way you need to approach a game - therefore the coin should flip before mulligan in my opinion - and yes, selfevidently there are disgusting matchups and occurrences to make the game (close) to unwinnable for the player who needs to go first. This has something to do with card balancing (e.g. the ridiculous 13 strength silver spies).

Just take analog sports as a comparison. In an american football game one team will lose the coin flip, one will win it. The winner decides whether to start with his offense or with his defence. That totally influences the pressure you obtain above your opponent, because you can either deny him a score with his first drive, or force him to score sooner or later to keep up with your score and force him to go for less save play calls while the game goes on.
In other ball sports like football (soccer) or hockey, baskeball and handball - the last too are pretty hard to compare because they are a lot faster and end with a pretty high score usually - it is probably not that expressive.

Take League of Legends as another example. In B05 one team will be blue side 3 times, red side 2 times; Vice versa for the second team. And it is a huge difference for your Champ-Selcet approach and therefore the teamcomp you will need to execute in the game.

 

[nemirni]

While i do agree that coinflip is an issue I am a bit tired of this approach to justifying added rng to the game. Yes, coinflip is rng, Mulligan is rng, but that doesnt mean more rng is good and we should have even more rng because well it is a card game and "nothing comes close to coinflip rng anyway" (i read this or similar phrase few times in last couple of days).

As for winch it is good example of useful rng cards which for some are great because it is a reliable way to strengthen your starting deck and for some (myself included) are the worst offender because they enable rng to creep into competitive play...
To make things more "dramatic" it is also a key point handling which will define which way cdpr wants to go with the game and also one of 2 main reasons why this patch has raised so much dust.

 

[4RM3D]

Winch is not fine if it is a create card that enables the player to fairly consistently predict what card he will be able to play.

The predictability of a card makes it stronger, but, ironically, that isn't Winch's greatest strength. That honor goes to his synergy with machines. Excluding the Henselt combo, it cannot backfire. Interestingly, even if Winch could pick from 20 machines, it still would be strong. The only thing that changes is the Henselt combo becoming too risky. To illustrate why predictability isn't the most important, I want to talk about Ge'els. Ge'els can pull 1 out of 3 golds and 1 out of 6 silvers, making it even more predictable when you have some of those gold and silver cards in hand. What's the problem? Imagine you have Caretaker and Scorch in your deck, but not in your hand and you have the strongest unit (probably a spy) on the board. That means there is at least a 50% chance Ge'els will backfire.

I did never understand the infantile whingeing about the coin toss.

The examples you have given do not work because you are comparing real-time games with a turn-based game. The coin flip in itself is a problem. The losing side should receive some compensation for this. Spies make this worse, yes. However, that has less to do with the coin flip and more to do with Gwent being round based, which allows the player to bleed the opponent in the second round. CDPR should make spies stubborn, remove them from the create list and make them spawn a token to block Summoning Circle. Regardless, even if you would remove spies altogether, that still wouldn't solve the coin flip issue.

 

[TV_JayArr]

[...]Winch is still fine[.] [...]

[...] ronically, that isn't Winch's greatest strength. That honor goes to his synergy with machines. [...] Interestingly, even if Winch could pick from 20 machines, it still would be strong. [...]

You just said that Winch is too strong, because the risk is too low in comparison to the reward it provides.

[...]Ge'els can pull 1 out of 3 golds and 1 out of 6 silvers, making it even more predictable when you have some of those gold and silver cards in hand. What's the problem? Imagine you have Caretaker and Scorch in your deck, but not in your hand and you have the strongest unit (probably a spy) on the board. That means there is at least a 50% chance Ge'els will backfire.[...]

First of all Ge'els is a gold card, secondly I don't get the Caretaker + Scorch example. You draw one silver and one gold. The example would make sense if you got Scorch, BTM and two silvers that actually provide you with value and that you are fishing for on top of a gold that would be fine to use, left in your deck; While having the strongest unit on your side of the board.
Besides don't run Scorch with Ge'els if you trouble to have the highest unit on your side of the board. Even if it is the spy of your opponent, respect that he is able to play it and either play your scorch earlier or don't play it. E.g. mulligan your Ge'els if he can only pull crap for you. That's called skill, something that used to be unavoidable to succesfully play Gwent.

[...]The examples you have given do not work because you are comparing real-time games with a turn-based game.[...]

Fair enough. The comparison with american football still apllies because it is arguably turn-based, being constructed around drives Offense against Defense. The League of Legends B05 example as well, because it is made out of up to 5 rounds(/turns), in which every round is a real-time game.

[...][T]hat still wouldn't solve the coin flip issue.

This thread is not about the coin flip anyhow.

 

[4RM3D]

You just said that Winch is too strong, because the risk is too low in comparison to the reward it provides.

I said that Winch was strong; never said too strong.

I don't get the Caretaker + Scorch example.

If you pull Caretaker and Scorch from Ge'els with nothing to ress and only burning your own units, then you've wasted two gold cards. This is an extreme example, but it still shows that using Ge'els can be risky when you cannot control the situation. That risk is not present with Winch because you can always at least use one of the three choices.

I didn't want to compare a gold with a bronze. It's just that I wanted to explain that Winch is a strong card, not because of its predictability but because of its low risk usage. Other than that, I have no problem with Winch. Henselt, spies and the coin flip are a different story.

 

[TV_JayArr]

[...] RNG cards are [supposed to be] high risk, high reward. If you limit the risk but don't adjust the reward for it, they become too strong.[...]

I guess we need to disagree, respecitvely agree on this first. Because what you say just supports my explanation, while you disagree with me.

[...] I wanted to explain that Winch is a strong card, not because of its predictability but because of its low risk usage. [...]

I say Winch is too strong, because its risk is too low in comparison to its gain.

[...][E]ven if Winch could pick from 20 machines, it still would be strong. [...]

That means that Wich would be strong with more than three times its current pool. How is it possible that it is not too strong right now, referring to that sentence?
And I know that the crew-man tag would still make it viable, but still you should not be able to know which card you will be drawing with your create card beforehand, especially not prior to the match/deckbuilding.

The whole thing about this Create mechanic is that you don't know which card you are able to play - at least not with a 50% accuracy. Again, the NR machine pool is too small for Winch to be accessible in the standard gwent mode.

[...]If you pull Caretaker and Scorch from Ge'els with nothing to ress and only burning your own units, then you've wasted two gold cards.[...]

I supposed that this is the scenario you where referring to, still it lacks meaningfulness. I already said; Respect your outs. Why would you play Ge'els in that situation, knowing he has a fair chance to draw Caretaker and Scorch. Which would be a 5 point play for you. It is risky and thats what i repeated in the beginning. High risk - High reward is healty. In this case you are creating the risk yourself and it is on you to evaluate if it is worth it. If you do not get lucky, so be it. You took the risk and it was your decision it was worth it.
If this decision leads to a loss, that is healty as well.

If there is no room to be rewarded for good plays and punished for bad ones, that is unhealthy.