Price of cardpool

[4RM3D]

I see you still didn't fix the math error in your original calculation of pick 1 of 3s ....
The clue is in the extended odds showing 32.17% Rare, 25.84% Silver, and 7.67% Gold... which leaves 34.32% for commons....

The 32.17% are for the extra rare cards, meaning those that drop from the first 4 cards. I haven't included the 5th because it's guaranteed to be rare or higher.

 

[Void_Singer]

that makes it worse, not better... the remaining percentage now has to include both the commons AND the Pick 1 of 3 Rares *** =X
Pretty sure the error is in counting all the cards shown in last 3, but only dividing by the number of kegs. It's an easy mistake to make, I made it in my initial calulations... easier to spot if you include all base cards too.

***

Spoiler

I calculated your First 4 commons by subtracting all but the Premium Common percentages in the First 4 section from 100%,
Total Commons: 89.74% of First 4
For the Last 3 section I did the same, excluding Premium Rares instead
Total Rares: 75.36% of Last 3
then multiplied by 0.8 (4 of 5 cards), and 0.2 (1 of 5 cards) respectively to get per Keg percentages
Commons: 71.792% / Keg
Rares: 15.072% / keg
Total Commons and Rares: 86.864% / Keg
Which is incompatible with Silvers and Golds totaling > 13.136%

if the formula isn't
First_Four[Rarity / (4 * Kegs)] * 0.8 + Last_Three_Shown[Single_Card_Rarity / (3 * Kegs)] * 0.2
or
First_Four[Rarity / (4 * Kegs)] * 0.8 + Last_Three[Group_Rarity / Kegs)] * 0.2
the percentages won't total to 100.
I recommend against the second because it doesn't let you calculate the min/max on Premiums in the last three

if the totals of percentages don't hit 100% per stage, or per card, or 500% / Keg something is wrong

PS
I do want to thank you for having the most complete counts available of those I could find... it made it possible to pool with my own counts to get an accurate read on percentages

 

[DRK3]

Well, i might as well provide my stats, for scientific purposes only, obviously!

I hit 800 hours yesterday, and i got all the cards, except 4 or 5 silvers (working on them now) and 15 golds. Since im playing since the beginning of closed beta, and that progress was pratically erased (if we exclude the reward kegs i got on Open Beta launch), i would say it took 600h to get here, with a procedure of only crafting Golds (and very rarely silvers), and only milling dupes or standard silvers/golds i already have Premium. And 0 cents spent.

 

[kiramode]

Thanks to all who put down helpful information. For reference, I don't care for opinions on whether the game is worth the money, whether you can be competitive on budget, or better routes to acquiring all the cards that don't involve a lump sum payment.

I just want to know what the baseline price is to get everything.

I can make a judgement from there on my own.

I think the 904 kegs to make a full playset is a good starting point to look at. If I place the price of a keg to be $1.15 it makes the whole playset cost 1039.60. Provided all the numbers are accurate. With that said; I'm betting a large portion of that price is due getting legendaries that don't drop very often. Probably something close to 90% of the cost is just chasing rare cards. So if only 75% of legendaries are playable it reduces the price of getting all the relevant cards to a little over $800 which is in line with a comment from earlier.

Granted I don't know if the 904 kegs to get all cards is accurate. I also don't know what percentage of rare cards actually matter. That's what makes the exercise of pinning down the price of the cardpool to be difficult.

 

[DannyGuy]

I would assume that obtain the entire relevant cardpool only with real cash would cost upwards of 1000 euros, as is the case in any other f2p game. However, if you just play regularly, you can easily acquire most of the relevant cards for free within 2-3 months. Let's say that on average, every 25 euros you spend will speed up your progress by about 2 weeks.

 

[Mathspy]

Thanks to all who put down helpful information. For reference, I don't care for opinions on whether the game is worth the money, whether you can be competitive on budget, or better routes to acquiring all the cards that don't involve a lump sum payment.

I just want to know what the baseline price is to get everything.

I can make a judgement from there on my own.

I think the 904 kegs to make a full playset is a good starting point to look at. If I place the price of a keg to be $1.15 it makes the whole playset cost 1039.60. Provided all the numbers are accurate. With that said; I'm betting a large portion of that price is due getting legendaries that don't drop very often. Probably something close to 90% of the cost is just chasing rare cards. So if only 75% of legendaries are playable it reduces the price of getting all the relevant cards to a little over $800 which is in line with a comment from earlier.

Granted I don't know if the 904 kegs to get all cards is accurate. I also don't know what percentage of rare cards actually matter. That's what makes the exercise of pinning down the price of the cardpool to be difficult.

https://gwentup.com/report/18/7
This should give you a good sense of which legendaries/epics are competitive (scroll to "cards" section)

 

[4RM3D]

Pretty sure the error is in counting all the cards shown in last 3, but only dividing by the number of kegs. It's an easy mistake to make, I made it in my initial calulations... easier to spot if you include all base cards too.

I don't entirely follow your explanation, so I shall give you mine.

For the first 4 cards, I've calculated the drop-rate as follows:

obtained rarity / (total kegs opened * 4 cards)
e.g. 48 epics / (743 opened kegs * 4 cards) = 1.62%

For the 5th card, I've calculated the drop-rate as follows:

obtained rarity / total kegs opened
e.g. 51 legendaries / 743 opened kegs = 6.86%

Where is the error in the calculations?

 

[DRK3]

kiramode I cant talk about droprates and prices, but i can about the percentages of cards that are actually useful and whatnot.

Indeed the hard part of collections is getting all / most Legendaries, since getting all bronzes comes rather quickly, and a good portion of the silvers too.

You said 75% of the Golds is your estimate for 'playable', and that's what's your aiming for. I would break that down further. I would say:

Around 40% of the Golds are Competitive, 40% are fun or interesting, and only 20% are pretty much unplayable, although those numbers would be more accurate if i saw the full list at once, so dont quote me on that.

 

[Void_Singer]

if by "obtained rarity" you mean the rarity of each individual card shown, then the first one is correct, but the second one needs to be

obtained rarity / (total kegs opened * 3 cards)
e.g. 51 legendaries / (743 opened kegs * 3 cards) = 2.29%

to account for the individual cards you counted. you can check it's right by totaling all the rarity percentages in First_Four (should be 100%), same for Fifth_Card

From there it's just
Percentage_Rarity_First_Four * 0.8 + Percentage_Rarity_Fifth * 0.2 = Percentage_Rarity_Keg
you can check that's right by totaling all the percentages obtained, and that too should be 100%

from there, multiple by 5 to get the Cards / Keg rate, and you can further divide the number you just got by 1 to see how many kegs it takes to get a Silver, Gold, or premium

3 Sample Kegs to Illustrate

Spoiler

[Common, Common, Common, Rare] + [Rare, Rare, Rare]
[Common, Common, Common, Epic] + [Epic, Epic, Epic]
[Common, Common, Common, Gold] + [Gold, Gold, Gold]

First 4:
Common = 9 / 12 = 75%
Rare = 1 / 12 = 8.33%
Epic = 1 / 12 = 8.33%
Gold = 1 / 1 2= 8.33%
Total Percentage Check = 99.99% (rounding error of 1 at the smallest decimal place is common)

Fifth:
Rare = 3 / 9 = 33.33%
Epic = 3 / 9 = 33.33%
Gold = 3 / 9 = 33.33%
Total Percentage Check = 99.99%

Combined Percentages (per card):
Common = 75% * 0.8 + 0.00% * 0.2 = 60%
Rare = 8.33% * 0.8 + 33.33% * 0.2 = 13.33%
Epic = 8.33% * 0.8 + 33.33% * 0.2 = 13.33%
Gold = 8.33% * 0.8 + 33.33% * 0.2 = 13.33%
Total Percentage Check = 99.99%

Combined Percentages (per Keg)
Common = 60% * 5 = 3.00 = 3 / Keg
Rare = 13.33% * 5 = 0.66 = 1 / 1.5 Kegs
Epic = 13.33% * 5 = 0.66 = 1 / 1.5 Kegs
Gold = 13.33% * 5 = 0.66 = 1 / 1.5 Kegs

ETA:
If by "Obtained Rarity" you meant cards actually received after selection, then the second half is right, but there's a different error somewhere else because the percentages don't add up to 100

 

[StrykerxS77x]

HUNDREDS of dollars.

Silly thing to do if you ask me.

 

[Void_Singer]

4RM3D
So I went back and reverse engineered all your numbers based on the hint that it was only received card you were counting.... and absolutely none of your Math is wrong... so this is me apologizing profusely for questioning that.... (it does assume either that people always choose a premium if it's in the 5th, or just assumes what you personally picked, whether premium or not)

... But, what is wrong is the Label of "% per Keg" on the Totals Sections... which shouldn't be a percentage, but rather "Cards per Keg"... which is why the numbers weren't adding up to 100%... because they would add up to 5 (for the 5 cards in the Keg) if the Commons and default Rares were included....

I also noticed 2 things when comparing our numbers, but I'd like to ask 4 questions before sharing them....
Have you bought any Kegs? (I have bought 3 packs so far)
How many months have you been playing? (Since just before New Years for me)
How many times have you hit Rank 20? (19 is my best so far, once, though I'm nearing it again)
Do your stats include any bought or special event Kegs, or Kegs opened before Midwinter Patch? (Mine do not) and if so do you have a way of checking your last 100-200 kegs only for comparison? (I can, but I can only go back 2 mos, I have every card shown in a keg recorded)

Sharing time: I ask because our numbers for First Four are nearly identical with a 8% Rare, 2% Epic, 0.5% Gold, 2.5% Premium per card... but our numbers for Fifth Card are wildly different, with a multipler of ~4.5x for Epic/Gold on mine, and a multiplier of ~11x !!! on yours... which is beyond huge statistically, and I'd like to figure out if any of those things is a good starting point to investigate why.

 

[4RM3D]

... But, what is wrong is the Label of "% per Keg" on the Totals Sections... which shouldn't be a percentage, but rather "Cards per Keg"... which is why the numbers weren't adding up to 100%... because they would add up to 5 (for the 5 cards in the Keg) if the Commons and default Rares were included....

Well, that explains it, then.

1. Have you bought any Kegs? (I have bought 3 packs so far)
2. How many months have you been playing? (Since just before New Years for me)
3. How many times have you hit Rank 20? (19 is my best so far, once, though I'm nearing it again)
4. Do your stats include any bought or special event Kegs, or Kegs opened before Midwinter Patch? (Mine do not) and if so do you have a way of checking your last 100-200 kegs only for comparison? (I can, but I can only go back 2 mos, I have every card shown in a keg recorded)

1. I've bought a few smaller ones when I started out, then the Starter's Pack and once the Festival pack (the extra card I did not include in the list).
2. Since the start of Closed Beta (but I started logging at the start of Open Beta, after the reset).
3. Three times (and rank 18 the other times when I was lazy).
4. I have not recorded every keg, but I do remember not getting above average drops for any of the special/festival kegs. Looking overall, I did notice my luck is above average compared to some other stats/players.

The numbers are somewhat skewed because I started counting since the start of Open Beta when the card pool was smaller. The 7.67% drop-rate for legendary cards is probably a bit high, I guess the "normalized" value lies around 5%. As for the epic cards, they just keep dropping (like flies).

 

[Void_Singer]

[...]1. I've bought a few smaller ones when I started out, then the Starter's Pack and once the Festival pack (the extra card I did not include in the list).
2. Since the start of Closed Beta (but I started logging at the start of Open Beta, after the reset).
3. Three times (and rank 18 the other times when I was lazy).
4. I have not recorded every keg, but I do remember not getting above average drops for any of the special/festival kegs. Looking overall, I did notice my luck is above average compared to some other stats/players.[...]

1. Ruling out # packs bought for now
2. Ruling out pure time playing for now
3. Ruling out Ranking for now
4. Can't rule out event kegs just yet

5. Leading theory is that the drop rate changed recently... more in your thread.