Potential Bug/Unusual Keg Drop Behavior

This is my first time posting in the gwent forum so I apologize because the system prevents me from creating a new thread until I've reached 10 post. Sorry, this is going to be a longer post and I hope the moderators will move this to its own thread soon.

Potential Bug/Unusual Keg Drop Behavior
Platform: Android

First off, I've played gwent for quite a while. Since beta Gwent in fact, when there were still silver cards, 3 rows etc. I'm also a ccg player myself so I know that opening packs is random and you don't always get what you want. However, something statistically unlikely occurred while I was opening my new "Way of the Witcher" kegs today.

I purchased the bundle with the 25 premium kegs for the new expansion and additionally used ore to unlock 80 more regular kegs. As I said, I've played gwent a while and quite often so its my usual thing to save ore for expansion releases like this. After going through all 105 kegs I only opened 2 legendary cards. This was unusual in itself. I know nothing is guaranteed but I've never gotten such a low legendary count opening this many kegs. What makes this stranger is the 2 I did get where both a lucky roll on my guaranteed rare on the first 4 cards. Neither of these cards were unlocked as my 5th card pick. I also noticed my epic count was a little lower than usual. Another odd thing, this one to my benefit, is I was getting a lot of common and rare premiums in the regular kegs.

This really felt off. So I opened 80 kegs of the "Ultimate" variety to see if I experienced the same apparent drop rate. I got 5 legendary 5th picks and 2 lucky first 4 legendaries and a ton of epics. This was just after I opened the 105 kegs of the new set. I find this keg drop behavior very out of the ordinary. I have never experienced such a low drop rate before.

Now before people start posting "its a random system, stop crying" I want to see if other people have experienced a similar change to their drop rates. I'm not an idiot and understand that luck can screw you over but this seemed so far away from my normal mass keg opening experiences. Without knowing the drop odds it is hard to know how unusual this truly is. I also just want to bring it to CDPR and the Gwent team in case there was a real bug or a change to the drop rates for the new set. Did I just get unlucky? Probably. But if this is a wider spread issue, I want it brought to the attention of the developer because this could be an especially bad experience to new and newer players who may not have the ore and scraps to easily obtain the cards they want.

tl;dr Legendary drop rate seemed especially low for new set kegs. I probably just got very bad luck but I want to see if others noticed a similar pattern. No legendaries in 5th pick, low epic count, unusually high premium rate.
You just got unlucky.

I was on the other side of the coin, and got 4 legendary cards in 42 expansion kegs (2 as 5th pick, 2 in the first 4). That's about double the rate that I usually expect (1 every 20 kegs).
Things like that have happened since the early days of Gwent every now and then (I had even worse situations during beta). I even had a case where I opened 60 kegs on two days - one day I got almost nothing and the next one I was very very lucky. It really is very random.

And since you did get a few legendaries, it doesn’t sound like a bug to me. And yes, I know it‘s very disappointing to not get much value from kegs.
i opened 36 wotw kegs and got 0 legendaries. This just ruins the fun of the release day.


Forum veteran
This time around i didnt have the patience to do the same keg analysis i did for Master Mirror, with the cooperation of the other users posting their data. You can check it here (for the droprates i obtained):

Since then, i've seen other users do their own analysis and the droprates dont differ too much.

Regarding this update and kegs, i too felt i got less lucky than in other expansions, with my traditional 100 kegs (to start off...)
Cant really complain much, since after 5min of crafting i got the whole collection and still enough scraps for another expansion though.

But i also did consider the possibility that the dev team lowered the odds of getting legendaries. Im not saying they did, but they never disclosed the official odds, and i dont think they had to announce them if they did change it. With so many new users lately, it could be a move to capitalize on that.
Thanks, everyone. I'm fortunate in that I have enough resources to craft pretty much anything I need so its not that bad. I was just spooked by the odd coincidence of not getting any 5th card legendaries in 105 kegs AND getting premiums about every 3rd keg. Then switching to ultimate kegs and suddenly seeing the odds I was used to. That's why I wanted to see if anyone else noticed a similar thing because those were 2 pretty low probability things happening at the same time and if more people were experienced it, it could be a legitimate bug.

Bad drops feel bad on release day but nothing that can be done about it for me now.
i posted my results in another thread as well but to help you feel a bit better... i had even worse luck:

first 100 WOTW kegs opened:
14/17 Epics
0/23 Legendaries

Waited 1-2 hours and got another 50 kegs:
got all 17/17 Epics about 130 kegs in, but still no Legendaries in 5th choice card nor in any first 4 cards..... this was extremely abnormal almost thought for sure it was some bug or glitch

Then FINALLY in my 145th overall Keg.... Got a Legendary in the 5th choice (Fallen Rayla, Cosimo, and Vypper).

So that's 1 legendary in 150 kegs for a 0.66% rate... whereas the typical 5% average would've given me 7.5 legendaries in 150 kegs for the 5th choice card with a few bonus ones that come in the first 4 cards of kegs.

The disappointing part is I'm a relatively newer player (6 months) with limited resources, and saved up about 15k ore over the past month for the new expansion.

I guess will just attribute it to bad luck as most other players on forums still reported normal or positive drop-rates.

At least the game is F2P friendly enough that it just means I need to save an extra 5000-8000 scraps to eventually finish the collection.
My drop rates were equally poor. 91 kegs in and only 2 legendaries. More concerning for me were the 36 kegs that were opened that had 2 of the same card in them (cards 1 - 4) and only half the time was one of the cards a premium. And 30% of them were Cat Witcher Adepts.
Top Bottom