My observation has been that CDPR is pretty good about nerfing cards/archetypes that win too frequently; it is horrible about addressing binary cards with average or low win rates. I think whether the Regis: Bloodlust / Golyat deck is truly OP will be the deciding factor regarding the nerf.
So, Is this deck truly OP? It only really requires 4 cards (Regis, Golyat, Ofiri Merchant, and Dol Dhu Lokke) and one consume (probably from an Overwhelming Hunger leader). This is only four cards costing only 29 total provisions for a match winning combination. Of course, there is a lot that can go wrong -- the issue is whether these mishaps can be made infrequent.
Major reasons the combo might fail are: not drawing necessary pieces in round 1, the opponent winning round one, the opponent milling Regis, or the opponent "dealing with" an unwanted Regis.
- Necessary draws: because the basic combo is cheap, it is easy to include several tutors. I would include Oneiromancy (to tutor Dol Dhu Lokke if necessary), Triss: Butterflies (to return Regis to deck if necessary), Royal Decree (for more tutoring), and Arcane Tome (to draw Oneiromancy or Royal Decree). This gives about an 86% chance of getting the needed cards in hand (with very little risk of bricking Regis in hand). That certainly feels more OP than binary.
- Winning round one — this is probably the wild card; hard to evaluate without experience and very dependent upon both the Regis deck’s supporting cast and the opponent’s deck. With 37 provisions devoted to tutors, my proposed Regis deck is somewhat disadvantaged — and it “gives” the opponent a 20 point Regis. On the other hand it can afford to go all in round one — and most opponents can’t. And, depending on circumstance, Regis could be omitted or even played as a friendly card. I would expect that only decks capable of very aggressive round 1 tempo have a viable chance competing round one.
- There are a few options for milling Regis. Ihuarraquax is the most generally available and most effective — but even it could hit a card like Brewess: Ritual instead. Other mill strategies are sufficiently rare and hit and miss that they are not really a threat to the deck success rate.
- Dealing with an unwanted Regis is not trivial. The most reliable method would be Heatwave — but spending 10 provisions on a negative 20 point play might still leave an uphill struggle. Other self-affecting tall punish might remove the instant lose condition, but still spend a lot of provisions on a very bad play. And they leave the high possibility of getting milled by three cards. A few archetypes could self-poison, consume, or transform Regis — but these are hardly standard deck inclusions.
Unfortunately, there might be enough of these (admittedly extremely binary) negative occurrences to keep a Regis deck win rate sufficiently low that it is not judged OP. To really judge, I would have to try it against a variety of decent competition. And that would be no fun for either me or my opponent.
On the bright side — at least with closed deck lists, I suppose another deck could masquerade as a Regis deck — tricking an opponent into over committing round one. Unless, of course, the opponent just forfeits to avoid the supposed Regis deck.
