New meta predictions & GM climb advice?

[TheNotoriousThree]

New meta predictions & GM climb advice?

What do you guys predict will be strong in the first one or two days of after the patch? And how long does it usually take until a new meta is more or less established? I just don't know how to go about reading a new meta and am not sure if I'd be successful trying it.

Also do you think climbing to ~4.3 - 4.4k MMR is easier now or after the patch? Or even in the very last few days of the season? How long would the grind even take and is it really worth waiting until later in the season? If I'd do it now I'd use Henselt if you're curious.

I am currently at roughly 4050 MMR and I am planning on climbing to GM this time, thought about doing it multiple times but never actually made it. This time I'm serious about it. So I'd highly appreciate any important advice about climbing up there aswell, if you think there are tips that might help me.

 

[devivre]

It's hard to tell. Question is if there will be any nerfs regarding SK. So far most of the changes discussed affect ST, Alchemy or Henselt. Should that be the case playing with Henselt will probably become more difficult (although Henselt will continue to be strong) and SK will become more dominating. Probably Consume too. But we'll see what really happens.

Anyhow, climbing up to GM usually takes a long time. The patch might be out before you get there.

 

[SoSaHer]

It all depends on how they handle create in the coming patch. But skellige and possibly nilfgaard alchemy will likely remain strong.

 

[partci]

... skellige and possibly nilfgaard alchemy will likely remain strong.

Alchemy will drop DRASTICALLY without Slave Drivers and Runestone. But we might see resurgence of Spies (they said Enforcers will be reverted to something again)... which makes me vomit in my mouth every time I think of it.

 

[SoSaHer]

Alchemy will drop DRASTICALLY without Slave Drivers and Runestone..

Maybe, I`m not so sure though. There are very viable alchemy decks which don`t run the runestone.

And most of the time the slavedriver is used to put an extra body on the table for ale. Sure it would hurt alchemy if they can`t play the other players deck reliably anymore, but my guess is that they will still be strong without. But yeah, let`s see what it brings instead of speculating

 

[Jeydra]

Did they post the patchnotes somewhere?

 

[devivre]

Did they post the patchnotes somewhere?

The patch isn't out yet. Patchnotes should be available after the patch is released.

 

[Jeydra]

The patch isn't out yet. Patchnotes should be available after the patch is released.

Then how can we possibly predict new meta?

 

[devivre]

Then how can we possibly predict new meta?

Because some of the things that will be adressed are not a secret (create, wardancers...)

 

[Rawls]

Related - New video – Swap Update overview

 

[Bleach25]

If tier 1 will be nerfed CDPR style, I'm probably going for
Consume/Deatwish as dominating
Spies/Reveal
Spellatael/handbuff
Unchanged for NR
Whatever for Skellige
​​​​​​
It really depends what will they nerf and how much.

OK I have seen the video and unless they take something else out of their hat
Skellige is going to dominate, Spellatael and Alchemy (maybe less perhaps?) will become extremely popular, even more than before for alchemy. Henselt is still going to be fairly strong, but not as it was. Consume and Deatwish... more or less the same. Finally, unless Swap finds something new they're gonna be in a bad spot.

 

[SoSaHer]

Well scoiatell swap might become interesting, maybe combine it with that silver that buffs itself whenever swapped?

 

[Void_Singer]

Predictions:
Veterans and Greatswords while people rejigger their decks
Swap, Spell-a-tael, and DD-Vipers coming up

 

[Laveley]

From that video i predict that eithné will be the dominant force if everything remains the same since basically its auto-win vs popular decks that werent nerfed, like GS, consume and handbuff and fares well against things that arent so popular like veterans and axeman while everything that prevents it to dominate got nerfed, like alchemy, elven swarm and henlset machines.

 

[Vespuche]

Without the extra elf body from the old Elven Scout, I think mulligan elf swarm is in a rough spot.

The new Elven Scout looks pretty cool in a spell deck. Because when you mulligan a bronze spell to Vrihedd Officer, he is a 5 power. But Scout is a base 10.

 

[OG.laloquaint]

Elven Scout's nerf is also an indirect nerf to Hattori. That's hilarious. I mean, what is he going to resurrect now?

I think Greatswords will continue to dominate for a while.....UNTIL Nilfgaard takes the crown. DEATH TO PIRATES AND PILLAGERS!

But *cough*

I think the game will be a bit more balanced now. I'm glad Henselt got buried though. Always hated playing against him. If SK is left the way it is, then I'm sure people will start running graveyard hate. So I guess it balances things out lol.

 

[Pruny]

Hatori was meant for handbuff, resurect ida or braen.
But i dont like him, it should be changed.
​​​​​​
Ps. He will be used with barclay ,again dorf meta

 

[Jeydra]

Related - New video – Swap Update overview

Thanks, changes in text form:

Swap and mulligan now different. Wardancers must be swapped, not mulliganed, i.e. they only trigger if used by Officers, Francesca, etc and not during the mulligans at the start of each round.
Black Blood: create a bronze Necrophage or Vampire and boost it by 2. Reasoning is so it cannot spawn Nekurat and get rid of weather (they didn't mention Abaya, for some reason).
Doppler: spawn a random unit since people don't like create on bronze cards.
Olgierd: now 5 power, deathwish: resurrect this unit. They are treating Olgierd as a "card advantage card" and since they're addressing other such cards they're also changing Olgierd. Now Bran cannot just dump Olgierd into graveyard and "drypass 2nd round" (probably a slip of the tongue). No mention of Morkvarg.
Runestones: all runestones now not only create a silver but also a bronze, to make them less consistent.
Winch: boost all machines on your side of the board by 3.
Dun Banner Light Cavalry: trigger changed to 25 points.
Elven Scout: 10 power, swap a card. Supposed to work well with Wardancers.
Vrihedd Vanguard: swap -> mulligan
Brouver: only tutors for non-spying silver units or bronze dwarves now. Cleaver combo is apparently not being changed, only Yaevinn can no longer be tutored and no card can now tutor for spies (wait, what about ADC, Hym, Skjall etc?).
Slave Driver: 10 power, set an ally's power to 1, do damage equal to the difference to an enemy.

First impressions:

1) Wardancers probably need a strength boost. They're 11 if used with Officers now, which is below average. 13 if used with new Elven Scout, but still, if you must have a 2-card combo you should also get more points than 13 from it (c.f. Officers mulliganing Vanguards right now).
2) I'm somewhat skeptical Olgierd will see play. They mentioned Deathwish, but I don't see why Deathwish would use Olgierd since triggering Olgierd's Deathwish is only 5 points, only slightly better than Archespore, and it's a silver + lower tempo to start.
3) I love the changes to the create cards!!
4) Good change to Brouver also but some games you will simply draw Yaevinn naturally in which case the Cleaver combo is still really good. However without Wardancers to block drypasses now it should be significantly more bearable.
5) Can't imagine a use for Slave Driver right now, except to randomly hose Fake Ciri.
6) A bit disappointed no changes to Greatswords given how absurd the interaction between Greatswords and fog is.
7) Very disappointed no change to Sabbath ...

Guesses for new meta:

1) No nerfs to Harald & Arachas Queen (Harald was even indirectly buffed). These decks were already good, so they're likely to get even better in the next patch.
2) Brouver mulligan deck takes a significant hit. I suspect it'll remain viable, but maybe T2. It's not just Wardancers and Brouver that got hit, Vanguards got hit as well since Elven Scout no longer spawns two bodies.
3) Henselt also takes a significant hit. Winch might see some play, but I'd guess only one copy at most, since it's only good in a long round. You need 4 machines for it to be competitive, and given it's dead in short rounds that might not be enough.
4) Everything else looks like it'll stay the same.

 

[Entropy_S]

I personally can't wait to play an ST swap build with the new scouts focusing on Eleyas. Always seemed like a cool card but there weren't that many ways of swapping him/her/it.

 

[bojerbela]

5) Can't imagine a use for Slave Driver right now, except to randomly hose Fake Ciri.
.

Nilfgaardian Knight 12
Slave Driver 10 + 11 damage (Knight becomes 1)
Mardroeme 14 point play (Knight to 15) (with Vic. Novice 16 point)

Good points with insane control play.

Viable? Don't know. Interesting? Yes.