Thanks for the links, Toyen. After reading your thread (My-choices-from-TW2-and-their-consequences) it seems to me that we can sum up the probable world-state as such:
* not saving Triss on either path
- W3 takes into account the possibility of the Conclave being established in a way, but it makes Radovid seem like crazed idiot, which he was most certainly not
- on the other hand, Radovid at Loc Muinne we see when taking not saving Triss option is exactly the pre-W3 Radovid we might expect given how he behaves in W3 (and we see he has had reasons for such a course of action)
- Triss mentions the massacre at Loc Muinne regardless of the actual choices taken in W2 (there is no pogrom if Triss is saved and she does not seem to mean the dragon havoc thing going on there, as it was rather limited in scope thanks to Geralt)
* from then on it is a mess...or rather something of a mix of Roche/Iorveth path consequences
- Geralt mentioning Vergen in a way that seems to not imply his brief encounter with Zoltan on the barricades there that takes place on Roche path (i.e. it seems to point to Iorveth path where Zoltan and Geralt fought together)
- Rose of Rememberance in Triss' house seems to point to Roche path (but just slightly... what are the odds that she would keep it through the magical statue compression and stuff?), but even if it might not present pro-Roche point, it is still a lore-breaker for Iorveth path
- Roche's men mentioning that Geralt and Roche are killing kings, then this would be like total breaker for Iorveth save import
- Phillipa mentioning that she lost control of Saskia after the war broke out (in save imports with Saskia saved from the curse by Geralt himself... like Philippa would not know it) - implying Iorveth path, saving Triss choice
- the White Orchard missions show the Temerian army met Nilfgaardian invasion, which would be kind of unlikely in any other scenario than Roche path, Anais given to Natalis (or at the very least Anais given to Radovid who would then keep formalities of "independent" Temeria to make his hold on it easier - but in any case Anais has to be saved) as Temeria either disintegrates into baronies on Henselt dead, Triss saved path, or is divided between Redania and Kaedwen on Iorveth path and Roche path, Henselt alive, Triss saved, it would be a bit of a stretch to suppose that Radovid after defeating Henselt and annexing Kaedwen, including Kaedwenian part of Temeria, somehow decided to restore Temeria as a formally "independent" kingdom with its Flag and all... (like why?)
-- the fate of Temeria was a big deal in W2 and here we have in W3 the actual world-state with Temeria falling only to the Nilfgaardian invasion regardless of choices and consequences of W2 (once more, the only plausible scenario in W2 for this state of affairs is Roche path, saving Anais, or at the very least Henselt dead, saving Triss path, with former Temerian baronies uniting under Natalis against invaders - in any case this is a heavy bias towards Roche path)
The only plausible way out of this is that since the invasion begins already during the Loc Muinne summit, all the choices and consequences there actually do not have any lasting value at all. So on Iorveth path the kings of Redania and Kaedwen might decide to partition Temeria between their kingdoms, but as Nilfgaardian invasion proceeds they have no time to implement their accord, and Temeria, still somewhat alive as a kingdom, mounts defensive action against Nilfgaardians under John Natalis and looses. The partition of Temeria between Redania and Kaedwen thus never happens, as there is no time to implement it. Instead Radovid mounts attack against Kaedwen while the remnants of Temeria are under Nilfgaardian onslaught. Why he would do that though in such a situation? Maybe Henselt was indeed acting in Nilfgaardian interests (as is heavily hinted in W2).
This (i.e. Act 3 choices do not matter at all or very little, as the invasion begins already during the summit) still leaves potential breakers, albeit small ones (Geralt commenting on being at Vergen with Zoltan vs Roche's men commenting on Geralt and Roche doing the kingslayer stuff, plus there is the Rose of Rememberance thing etc.).
Still, it would be nice to somehow get an update dealing with what happened to Anais, Saskia, Iorveth et al.